LIC Housing Finance
BSE SENSEX
28,061
S&P CNX
8,698
7 October 2016
Update
| Sector:
Financials
CMP: INR602
Tailwinds to spreads
TP: INR758(+26%)
Buy
Gradual re-rating to continue
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016
2017E
2018E
LICHF IN
505.0
608 / 389
4/9/18
304.0
4.6
1108
59.7
With market borrowings its predominant source of funds, LICHF’s cost of
funds has declined faster than other HFCs in the last 3-6 months.
Continued bond purchases by the RBI in open market operations and repo
rate cuts would continue to drive down bond yields, which would in turn
favorably impact LICHF’s cost of funds.
The spread on LICHF’s incremental loans has increased to 2%+ and we expect
this to sustain, given its competitive loan pricing and cost of funds.
We believe current valuations do not factor in sustained spread
improvement. The stock is set for a re-rating; Buy.
NII
PPP
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
RoAA (%)
RoE (%)
29.4
27.1
16.4
32.5
21.8
181.1
18.5
3.3
1.5
19.3
36.7
33.9
20.0
39.5
21.7
212.9
15.2
2.8
1.5
20.1
43.6
40.0
25.0
49.6
25.4
252.7
12.1
2.4
1.6
21.3
Large share of market borrowings favors LICHF
Over the last two years, LICHF has diversified its borrowing profile significantly.
Share of bank borrowings has declined from ~25% to ~10%, while the share of
market borrowings has increased to ~90%. In the last 18-24 months, while the repo
rate has been cut 175bp, banks have cut rates only by 75-100bp. G-Sec yields have
fallen more. As a result, HFCs with large share of bank borrowings have not
benefited as much as LICHF, which predominantly borrows from the market.
Continued RBI OMOs…
In 2014 and 2015, inflation was high; to counter this, the RBI sold bonds worth
INR1t in the market, causing liquidity deficit. With easing inflation, the RBI started
purchasing bonds through open market operations (OMOs) in December 2015.
Since then, its overall bond purchases have been close to INR1.9t. The OMOs have
resulted in G-Sec yields dropping 100-120bp in the past 6-9 months (see exhibits 1
and 2).
Our Economist expects further OMOs of INR700b over FY17.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-16 Mar-16 Jun-15
Promoter
40.3
40.3
40.3
DII
37.6
6.1
7.3
FII
0.0
27.5
37.4
Others
22.1
26.0
15.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
LIC Housing Fin.
Sensex - Rebased
610
550
490
430
370
…and repo rate cuts to drive bond yields lower
Repo rate and G-Sec yields are highly correlated. Over 2001-03, when the RBI cut
repo rate significantly, G-Sec yields fell even more sharply (see exhibit 3).
Our
Economist expects at least one repo rate cut by the end of FY17, with another 1-2
rate cuts in FY18. When we published our last update on LICHF in August, G-Sec
yields were 7.1%; since then, they have fallen to 6.7%.
Given continued RBI OMOs
and reduction in repo rate over the next 6-12 months, we believe G-Sec yields
could drop further over the next 12 months. LICHF has NCDs worth INR220b (~20%
of total outstanding borrowings) maturing in FY17 and FY18, which would help it to
save 30-40bp in cost of funds over the next two years. Among all HFCs in our
coverage, we believe LICHF would be the biggest beneficiary of falling yields.
Spread of AAA yields over GSec yields have narrowed significantly
Another big impact of the RBI OMOs has been that AAA bond spreads over GSec
yields have narrowed significantly. While the average spread has been ~80bp in the
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5521
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com)/Piran
Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1539
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.