NIIT Technologies
BSE SENSEX
27,530
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val. (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,520
NITEC IN
61.2
25.2/ 0.4
632 / 388
5/-26/-18
143
69.3
17 October 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Technology
CMP: INR411
TP: INR450 (+9%)
Neutral
Strong all-round performance…
…but weak outlook for 3Q is concerning
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E
Y/E Mar
26.8
28.1
Net Sales
4.7
4.6
EBITDA
2.8
2.7
NP
45.7
38.4
EPS (INR)
143.7 -16.1
EPS Gr. (%)
259.8 282.9
BV/Sh. (INR)
19.0
14.2
RoE (%)
18.6
15.6
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
21.9
28.7
Div. Yield
2.4
2.7
2018E
30.8
5.2
3.1
50.1
30.6
319.9
16.6
15.6
21.9
2.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (IFRS)
Rebound in revenue growth…:
NIIT Technologies’ (NITEC) revenues grew 3.5%
QoQ to USD103m (our estimate: -0.8% QoQ), largely led by strong growth in
the Insurance (8% QoQ) and Travel (6.5% QoQ) verticals. Digital too performed
strongly (+9% QoQ) in the quarter, now accounting for 19% of total revenues.
…but weak outlook for 3Q:
The third quarter is expected to be weak due to
seasonality and spending cuts by a major US customer. However, we could see
the trend improving again from 4Q, led by a pick-up in new deal wins.
Following strong EBITDA margin increase of 90bp QoQ to 16.2% in 2QFY17 (our
estimate: -50bp), NITEC maintained its end-FY17 margin outlook at 17.5%.
Executable order book soft despite significant deal wins:
Deal wins in 2Q
stood at USD143m (v/s USD101m in 1QFY17). LTM deal wins rose 30% YoY, but
executable order book grew only 3% YoY to USD309m. The Morris deal was
renewed in 1HFY17 with TCV of USD85m, lower than current run-rate of
~USD100m due to expectations of weak discretionary spend by Morris.
Minor estimate changes as outlook remains tepid:
Despite pick-up in deal
wins, NITEC has failed to see material difference in its executable order book.
Cyclical and client-specific issues continue to plague overall performance,
resulting in yet another bleak year in terms of growth. We cut our revenue
estimates marginally by 0.6%/1% for FY17/18E. Also, subsequent margin
pressure in 3Q, lower yields on other income and higher ETR lead to further
EPS cuts of 5.9%/2.7% for FY17/18E. We revise our target multiple to 9x (in line
with historic average) to factor continued inconsistency in deal wins, and tepid
growth in executable order book.
Neutral.
(INR Million)
3Q
103
-0.9
6,787
14.0
37.3
19.1
18.2
14.2
52
20.9
48.0
741
8.5
53.7
12.1
9,517
78.7
13.6
41.0
43.0
4Q
1Q
102
99
-1.2 -2.5
6,847 6,692
12.0
4.4
37.1 35.3
18.7 20.0
18.4 15.3
14.2 10.9
39
71
18.2 10.3
39.0 46.0
790 720
6.6 -8.9
-548.9 22.7
12.9
5.1
9,476 9,022
79.0 79.8
13.6 13.4
39.0 39.0
46.0 46.0
FY17
2Q
103
4.2
6,913
2.0
35.3
19.0
16.2
12.0
27
24.2
54.0
596
-17.2
-12.7
9.7
8,868
81.0
FY16
3QE
102
-1.0
7,176
5.7
36.7
20.0
16.7
12.7
107
24.5
54.0
714
19.8
-3.6
11.6
9,028
77.5
FY17E
4QE
105 406
412
2.5
8.6
1.4
7,312 26,824 28,506
6.8 338.9 344.6
36.7 37.0
36.6
19.3 19.5
19.4
17.4 17.6
17.3
13.4 13.5
13.2
65 183
234
24.5 21.8
21.4
54.0 170.0 208.0
735 2,801 2,578
2.9 145.9
-8.0
-6.9
12.0 45.8
42.0
9,228 9,476 9,318
78.0 79.2
79.1
40.0
38.5
Est.
2QFY17
98
-0.8
6,688
-1.3
34.8
20.0
14.8
10.5
27
22.0
46.0
524
-27.2
-23.3
8.5
9,072
78.0
Var.
(%/bp)
5.4
498bp
3.4
328bp
45bp
-98bp
9.7
151bp
0.0
9.8
13.7
998bp
1056bp
-2.2
300bp
Y/E March
FY16
(Consolidated)
1Q
2Q
Revenue (USD m) *
98
104
QoQ (%)
5.9
6.2
Revenue (INR m)
6,411 6,779
YoY (%)
11.0
15.2
GPM (%)
36.4
37.2
SGA (%)
20.1
19.6
EBITDA Margin (%)
16.3
17.6
EBIT Margin (%)
12.0
13.7
Other income
79
13
ETR (%)
25.9
22.9
Minority Interest
40.0
43.0
PAT
587
683
QoQ (%)
-433.5
16.4
YoY (%)
35.6
70.8
EPS (INR)
9.6
11.2
Headcount
9,228 9,592
Util excl. trainees (%)
79.5
79.7
Attrition (%)
14.3
13.7
Offshore rev. (%)
39.0
41.0
Fixed Price (%)
42.0
41.0
E: MOSL Estimates; * Ex. forex & bought outs
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531