21 October 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
Cairn India
BSE SENSEX
28,077
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INR m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,693
CAIR IN
1,874.9
435 / 6.5
237/107
22/44/48
574
40.2
CMP: INR232
Neutral
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
86.3
91.4 101.3
EBITDA
36.2
44.3
50.7
Adj. PAT
21.4
26.0
23.4
Adj. EPS (INR)
11.4
13.9
12.5
EPS Gr. (%)
-69.2
21.5 -10.1
BV/Sh.(INR)
259.0 267.3 275.7
RoE (%)
4.0
5.3
4.6
RoCE (%)
2.8
5.0
4.6
P/E (x)
20.3
16.7
18.6
P/BV (x)
1.0
0.9
0.8
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Above estimate, led by higher realization and lower opex
Above est:
Cairn reported revenues at INR20b (est INR19.5b; -9% YoY, +8%
QoQ) benefited by lower Rajasthan crude discount to Brent with realization at
USD41.6/bbl (-5% YoY, +10% QoQ). EBITDA stood at INR10.4b (est 8.1; +6%
YoY, +31% QoQ) led by opex optimization initiatives. PAT stood at INR7.8b
(+16% YoY, +117% QoQ) boosted by (a) lower D,D&A at INR7.8b (est. INR8b; -
10% YoY, -4% QoQ), (b) higher other income at INR5.3b (+344% YoY, +1% QoQ,
(c) forex gain of INR644m and (d) lower tax rate at 7.6%. This was partly
negated by higher interest cost at INR193m (est. 78; +234% YoY, +7% QoQ).
2QFY17 realization above est led by lower discount:
2QFY17 Rajasthan
realization at USD41.6/bbl (est 38; -4% YoY, +11% QoQ) implies sharp QoQ fall
in discount to Brent to 9.4% (v/s 14.3% in 2QFY16 and 18.5% in 1QFY17) led
higher Bonny Light – Brent differential and strong heavy distillate cracks.
Rajasthan production stood at 167.7kboepd (est 167; flat YoY, QoQ) and
management guides for flat production in FY17 over FY16.
Several cost cutting initiatives:
Cairn India has aggressively taken opex
optimization initiatives which resulted in decreased average opex to USD6/boe
vs USD6.4/boe in 1QFY17.
Await Rajasthan PSC extension:
Rajasthan block PSC (production sharing
contract) extension is sub judice in the Delhi High Court.
Valuation and view
Cairn India shareholders have approved the merger with Vedanta. Cairn
shareholders will get one Vedanta share (currently at INR203) plus four
additional preference shares (face value of INR10 each). Our DCF value of Cairn
is INR184/sh (WACC: 12%) at long-term Brent of USD55/bbl.
The stock trades at 18.6x FY18E EPS of INR12.5.
Neutral.
(INR Million)
FY16
2Q
3Q
22,421
20,395
-43.7
-41.8
9,789
7,386
43.7
36.2
682
725
8,644
8,930
58
45
1,204
1,419
1,609
-895
3,807
488
5,417
-1,310
6,727
6,727
3.6
-407
-494
87
87
0.0
FY17
2Q
3QE
20,386
24,635
-9.1
20.8
10,402
12,942
51.0
52.5
11
98
7,818
8,100
193
195
5,349
4,538
7,729
9,087
644
0
8,373
586
7,787
7,787
4.2
9,087
1,999
7,088
7,088
3.8
FY16
4QE
27,522
60.3
12,995
47.2
168
7,801
173
4,831
9,684
0
0
9,684
2,130
7,553
7,553
4.0
86,256
-41.1
36,249
42.0
2,601
31,072
270
12,941
15,249
7,143
-116,738
-94,346
-27
-94,319
21,425
11.4
FY17E
91,394
6.0
44,289
48.5
290
31,822
740
20,002
31,439
-604
0
30,835
4,811
26,024
26,024
13.9
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Exploration w/off
D,D&A
Interest
Other Income (Net)
PBT before exceptionals
Forex Fluctuations
Exceptional items
PBT
Tax
PAT
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS
1Q
26,271
-41.4
13,728
52.3
824
8,766
16
3,816
7,938
1,820
0
9,758
1,408
8,350
8,350
4.5
4Q
17,168
-35.9
5,347
31.1
369
4,732
151
6,502
6,596
1,028
-116,738
-109,113
369
-109,482
6,262
3.3
1Q
18,851
-28.2
7,950
42.2
13
8,103
179
5,284
4,939
-1,248
0
3,691
95
3,596
3,596
1.9
*Prior period financials are not restated for IndAS accounting change
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Cairn India
Exhibit 1:
Cairn India operating performance
FY15
1Q
Gross oil production (kbpd)
Ravva
Cambay
Rajasthan
Sub-total
Gross gas production (mmscmd)
Ravva
Cambay
Rajasthan
Sub-total
Gross total (kboepd)
Net oil production (kbpd)
Ravva (22.5%)
Cambay (40%)
Rajasthan (70%)
Sub-total
Net gas production (mmscmd)
Ravva (22.5%)
Cambay (40%)
Rajasthan (70%)
Sub-total
Net oil + gas production (kboepd)
Ravva (22.5%)
Cambay (40%)
Rajasthan (70%)
Net Total (kboepd)
Key Operating Metrics
Fx rate (INR/USD)
Brent (USD/bbl)
Rajasthan realization (USD/bbl)
Disc. to Brent (%)
Natural gas (USD/mmbtu)
Average realization (USD/boe)
Average realisation (INR/boe)
59.8
109.7
97.5
(11.1)
5.4
93.3
5,577
60.5
102.0
91.5
(10.3)
7.1
95.3
5,766
61.8
76.0
68.3
(10.8)
6.1
68.1
4,209
62.2
55.2
48.6
(12.0)
6.0
48.4
3,010
63.7
61.9
55.8
(9.9)
6.4
56.0
3,567
65.0
50.5
43.3
(14.3)
6.8
43.7
2,841
66.0
43.7
34.5
(21.1)
7.0
35.2
2,323
67.0
34.5
28.0
(18.8)
7.2
94.4
6,325
66.9
46.0
37.5
(18.5)
6.9
38.0
2,543
67.0
45.9
41.8
(8.9)
41.6
3.1
(9.1)
(3.5)
(37.3)
(4.7)
0.1
(0.2)
11.5
(51.7)
9.5
5.4
4.3
129.3
139.0
4.6
4.3
114.3
123.2
6.3
4.4
126.0
136.7
7.1
3.8
121.8
132.8
6.4
3.6
120.5
130.5
5.9
4.5
117.7
128.0
4.9
4.2
119.3
128.4
4.3
4.1
117.4
125.8
4.4
4.1
116.9
125.4
4.2
4.0
117.4
125.6
(27.8)
(11.6)
(0.3)
(1.9)
(4.1)
(3.9)
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
(39.5)
(4.3)
0.0
(24.1)
(18.8)
0.0
0.0
(9.4)
0.7
0.4
0.2
1.2
217.9
4.4
3.4
128.2
136.0
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.4
194.5
4.6
3.4
114.3
122.2
0.7
0.4
0.2
1.1
218.9
5.3
3.6
126.0
134.8
0.8
0.2
0.3
1.0
215.3
6.0
3.4
121.8
131.2
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.8
209.7
5.7
3.1
120.5
129.3
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.9
205.4
5.1
3.8
117.7
126.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.7
202.7
4.3
3.6
119.3
127.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.7
197.0
3.7
3.5
117.4
124.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.7
196.9
3.8
3.5
116.9
124.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.6
196.4
3.8
3.3
117.4
124.5
(39.5)
(4.3)
0.0
(28.8)
(4.4)
(25.6)
(13.6)
(0.3)
(1.7)
(18.8)
0.0
0.0
(12.0)
(0.2)
(1.6)
(5.0)
0.5
0.2
19.5
8.4
183.2
211.1
2Q
20.5
8.4
163.3
192.1
3Q
23.4
8.9
180.0
212.3
4Q
26.9
8.5
174.0
209.3
1Q
25.2
7.8
172.2
205.2
FY16
2Q
22.5
9.6
168.1
200.2
3Q
19.1
9.1
170.4
198.6
4Q
16.6
8.9
167.7
193.1
FY17
1Q
17.0
8.7
166.9
192.7
2QFY17 (%)
2Q YoY
16.7
8.3
167.7
192.7
(25.6)
(13.6)
(0.3)
(3.7)
QoQ
(1.6)
(5.0)
0.5
0.0
0.0 (100.0) (100.0)
2,790
(1.8)
9.7
Source: MOSL, Company
21 October 2016
2

Cairn India
Exhibit 2:
Cairn India quarterly P&L
INR B
Gross revenues
Less: Profit Petroleum
Less: Levies (Cess + Royalty)
Net Revenues
Less: Opex
EBITDA
Less: Exploration w/off
Less: D,D&A
EBIT
Less: Interest
Add: Other Income
PBT prior to FX fluctuations
Forex gain / (loss)
Exceptionals
PBT
Tax
Tax rate adj. for forex & exceptionals
(%)
PAT
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS (INR)
1Q
73.3
17.8
18.0
37.5
4.5
33.1
2.5
7.2
23.3
0.0
4.2
27.5
1.0
(16.3)
12.2
1.3
4.7
10.9
27.2
5.8
FY15
2Q
60.2
11.3
15.6
33.3
5.4
27.9
1.3
7.0
19.5
0.1
3.5
22.9
2.4
25.3
2.6
11.2
22.8
22.8
12.1
3Q
51.5
9.5
14.2
27.8
5.9
21.8
1.6
8.9
11.4
0.1
1.6
12.9
3.5
16.4
2.9
22.8
13.5
13.5
7.2
4Q
35.4
4.0
11.5
19.9
6.5
13.4
5.5
2.6
5.3
0.1
3.6
8.8
(1.7)
(5.1)
2.1
4.5
51.1
(2.4)
6.1
(1.3)
1Q
41.3
9.0
12.9
19.4
5.6
13.7
0.8
8.8
4.1
0.0
3.8
7.9
1.8
0.0
9.8
1.4
17.7
8.3
8.3
4.5
FY16
2Q
3Q
32.0 26.8
5.4
3.5
11.0
9.7
15.6 13.6
5.9
6.2
9.8
7.4
0.7
0.7
8.6
8.9
0.5 (2.3)
0.1
0.0
1.2
1.4
1.6 (0.9)
3.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
5.4 (0.4)
(1.3) (0.5)
(81.4) 55.2
6.7
6.7
3.6
0.1
0.1
0.0
4Q
21.2
2.0
7.6
11.7
6.3
5.3
0.4
4.7
0.2
0.2
6.5
6.6
1.0
(116.7)
(109.1)
0.4
5.6
(109.5)
6.3
(58.4)
FY17
2QFY17 (%)
1Q
1Q
YoY
QoQ
28.0
32.3
0.7
15.4
5.5
7.7 43.8
40.4
8.6
9.1 (17.3)
5.5
13.8
15.4 (1.3)
11.5
5.9
5.0 (14.0)
(14.5)
7.9
10.4
6.3
30.8
0.0
0.0 (98.4)
(15.9)
8.1
7.8 (9.6)
(3.5)
(0.2)
2.6 455.7 (1,651.9)
0.2
0.2 234.1
7.5
5.3
5.3 344.2
1.2
4.9
7.7 380.3
56.5
(1.2)
0.6 (83.1) (151.6)
0.0
0.0
3.7
8.4 54.6
126.9
0.1
0.6 (144.8)
515.2
1.9
7.6
(109.3)
293.1
3.6
3.6
1.9
7.8
7.8
4.2
15.8
15.8
15.8
116.6
116.6
116.6
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 3:
Cairn India quarterly P&L (USD/bbl)
USD/bbl
Gross revenues
Less: Profit Petroleum
Less: Levies (Cess + Royalty)
Net Revenues
Less: Opex
EBITDA
Less: Exploration w/off
Less: D,D&A
EBIT
Less: Interest
Add: Other Income
PBT prior to FX fluctuations
Forex gain / (loss)
Exceptionals
PBT
Tax
PAT
Adj. PAT
1Q
97.0
23.5
23.8
49.7
5.9
43.8
3.4
9.5
30.9
0.0
5.5
36.4
1.3
(21.5)
16.2
1.7
14.5
36.0
FY15
2Q
87.8
16.5
22.8
48.5
7.8
40.7
2.0
10.3
28.5
0.1
5.0
33.5
3.5
0.0
37.0
3.7
33.2
33.2
3Q
66.2
12.2
18.3
35.7
7.6
28.1
2.0
11.5
14.6
0.1
2.1
16.6
4.5
0.0
21.2
3.8
17.4
17.4
4Q
47.6
5.4
15.5
26.8
8.8
18.0
7.4
3.4
7.2
0.1
4.8
11.9
(2.3)
(6.8)
2.8
6.1
(3.2)
8.1
1Q
54.5
11.9
17.1
25.6
7.4
18.1
1.1
11.6
5.5
0.0
5.0
10.5
2.4
0.0
12.9
1.9
11.0
11.0
FY16
2Q
3Q
41.8
34.3
7.0
4.5
14.4
12.4
20.4
17.4
7.6
7.9
12.8
9.5
0.9
0.9
11.3
11.5
0.6
(2.9)
0.1
0.1
1.6
1.8
2.1
(1.1)
5.0
0.6
0.0
0.0
7.1
(0.5)
(1.7)
(0.6)
8.8
0.1
8.8
0.1
4Q
27.6
2.5
9.9
15.2
8.2
7.0
0.5
6.2
0.3
0.2
8.5
8.6
1.3
(152.2)
(142.3)
0.5
(142.8)
8.2
FY17
1Q
36.6
7.2
11.3
18.1
7.7
10.4
0.0
10.6
(0.2)
0.2
6.9
6.5
(1.6)
0.0
4.8
0.1
4.7
4.7
2Q
41.7
10.0
11.8
19.9
6.5
13.4
0.0
10.1
3.3
0.2
6.9
10.0
0.8
0.0
10.8
52.9
0.8 (144.3)
10.1
14.5
10.1
14.5
2QFY17 (%)
YoY
QoQ
(0.4)
13.8
42.3
38.5
(18.2)
4.1
(2.4)
10.0
(14.9) (15.7)
5.1
29.0
(98.4) (17.1)
(10.5)
(4.8)
449.6 (1,630.5)
230.5
6.0
339.4
(0.2)
375.0
54.3
(83.3) (150.9)
123.7
506.7
113.6
113.6
Source: MOSL, Company
21 October 2016
3

Cairn India
Exhibit 4:
Rajasthan gross oil production averaged at 168kbpd (flat YoY, QoQ)
Rajasthan gross Oil Production (kbpd)
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 5:
Net O+G production flat QoQ at 126kboepd (down 2% YoY and flat QoQ)
Rajasthan (70%)
Ravva (22.5%)
Cambay (40%)
Net Total (kboepd)
142 144 139
137 133 131
128 128 126 125 126
127 129 128 127 132 134
123
107
94 100 94 100 99 99
45
31
19 25 26
4 11 12
81 87 83 88 88 88 96
117 120 119 118 122 124 131
135 129
114 126 122 121 118 119 117 117 117
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 6:
Cairn plans to spend USD100m in FY17 versus USD248m in FY16
Source: MOSL, Company
21 October 2016
4

Cairn India
Rajasthan discount to Brent declines to ~9% in 2QFY17
Rajasthan realization stood at ~USD41.8/bbl in 2QFY17 (-3% YoY, 11% QoQ),
implying discount to Brent at ~9% (v/s 14% in 2QFY16). The QoQ decline in the
discount was led by higher Bonny Light – Brent differential and strong heavy
distillate cracks.
Blended Rajasthan block opex now stands at USD6/boe (v/s USD6.4/boe in
1QFY17).
Exhibit 7:
Rajasthan discount to Brent at 9% in 2QFY17
24%
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%
10%
14%
9%
21%
18%
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 8:
Update on Cairn’s Key Exploration blocks
No. Exploration Blocks
1 KG-ON-2003/1 block
(Carin: 49%)
2
KG-OSN-2009/3 block
(Carin: 100%)
PR-OSN-2004/1 block
(Carin: 35%)
Cairn Stake (%)
1QFY17 update
49.0%
FDP is being reviewed by the Management Status Quo
Committee
100.0%
Continues to engage with the MoPNG for
an extension contingent upon full lifecycle
clearance from Ministry of Defence
Process for receiving Coastal Regulatory
Zone clearance is also initiated.
2QFY17 update
4
35.0%
Interpretation of new seismic volumes
resulted in identification of 4 prospects and
a number of smaller leads.
Drilling planned to commence in Q4 FY17.
Proposing MoPNG to reduce commitment
from 3 to 2 wells due to limited access.
6
South Africa Block 1
(Carin: 60%)
60.0%
Prospect inventory for the block finalized. Status Quo
Assessment of exploration potential of
inboard plays ongoing to provide other
drilling options.
Source: Company, MOSL
Other key highlights
Rajasthan royalty share
in 2QFY17 stood at INR4.2b (v/s INR4.2b in 2QFY16 and
INR3.6b in 1QFY17). Profit petroleum stood at INR7.7b (v/s 5.4b in 2QFY16 and
INR5.5b in 1QFY17).
D,D&A
stood at INR7.8b (-10% YoY and -4% QoQ). The D,D&A charges
accounted on entitlement interest basis as per IndAs computation.
Other income
stood at INR5.3b (v/s INR1.2b 2QFY16 and INR5.3b in 1QFY17).
Foreign exchange
gain stood at INR644m (v/s gain of INR3.8b in 2QFY16 and
loss of INR1.2b in 1QFY17).
Net capex
for 2QFY17 stood at ~INR470m.
Cash and cash equivalent stood at USD3.7b of which 32% is held in USD
currency.
5
21 October 2016

Cairn India
FY17 guidance:
Management is focused on maintaining the production at FY16
level. Planned capex for FY17 is USD100m, with 80% to be invested in
development primarily in the development of RDG gas and Mangala EOR
completion. Remaining 20% would be invested in exploration. Focused to
improve the economics of key projects that includes Bhagyam & Aishwariya
EOR, Barmer Hill and Satellite fields.
Valuation and view
Cairn India production growth potential and reserve upgrades is contingent on
the higher oil price from current levels. We await clarity on any change in the
reserve number.
Operational updates to watch out are (1) Rajasthan production trend, (2)
Updates on reserves and (3) Update on other exploration blocks and (4) clarity
on Rajasthan PSC extension.
Cairn India shareholders have approved the merger with Vedanta. Cairn
shareholders will get one Vedanta share (currently at INR203) plus four
additional preference shares (face value of INR10 each). Our DCF value of Cairn
is INR184/sh (WACC: 12%) at long-term Brent of USD55/bbl.
The stock trades at 18.6x FY18E EPS of INR12.5. Neutral.
Exhibit 9:
Cairn India: Key assumptions
Y End: March 31
FY11
Exchange Rate (USD/INR)
45.6
Brent Crude Price (USD/bbl)
86.7
Disc. for Rajasthan Crude (USD/bbl) 12.0%
Rajasthan net realization (USD/bbl) 76.3
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E
67.5
70.0
47.9
54.5
60.6
61.1
65.4
49.5
55.0
114.5 110.5 107.6
85.7
47.7
9.4% 11.0% 11.4% 10.8% 15.2% 11.8% 14.0%
43.6
47.3
103.7
98.3
95.3
76.5
40.4
Source: MOSL, Company
21 October 2016
6

Cairn India
Operating metrics
Exhibit 10:
Well diversified portfolio with assets ranging from
Exhibit 11:
Cairn’s pipelines gives access to majority of
exploration to production as well as two overseas assets
domestic refineries as well as export option
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 12:
…however Mangala decline, slower Bhagyam
ramp-up, halted Rajasthan production ramp-up in FY15
Exhibit 13:
Management had earlier envisioned production
of 300kbpd at Rajasthan in high oil price scenario
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
21 October 2016
7

Cairn India
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Change in Stock
Employee Costs
Operating Costs
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
D,D&A (incl. w/off)
Interest
Other Income
EBIT
Forex Fluctuations
Exceptional Item
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
2011
102,779
533.3
-264
1,105
16,709
85,228
82.9
-13,596
-2,909
1,288
70,011
-1,112
0
68,899
5,556
7.9
63,343
63,343
502.6
2012
131,130
27.6
-263
861
22,475
108,056
82.4
-17,391
-2,220
3,194
91,639
6,148
-13,552
84,235
4,857
5.3
79,378
92,929
46.7
2013
175,241
33.6
-274
1,033
39,603
134,880
77.0
-23,008
-687
7,228
118,414
3,134
1,888
123,436
2,351
2.0
121,085
119,198
28.3
2014
187,617
7.1
-141
2,741
44,233
140,784
75.0
-27,098
-415
7,834
121,106
7,390
0
128,496
4,178
3.4
124,318
124,318
4.3
2015
146,462
-21.9
-11
1,105
49,162
96,207
65.7
-36,675
-204
12,849
72,177
5,244
-21,326
56,095
11,299
15.7
44,796
69,531
-44.1
2016
86,256
-41.1
-486
991
49,502
36,249
42.0
-33,672
-270
12,941
15,249
7,143
-116,738
-94,346
-27
-0.2
-94,319
21,425
-69.2
2017E
91,394
6.0
-115
1,139
46,080
44,289
48.5
-32,112
-740
20,002
31,439
-604
0
30,835
4,811
15.3
26,024
26,024
21.5
(INR Million)
2018E
101,270
10.8
0
1,310
49,308
50,652
50.0
-37,114
-703
20,542
33,377
0
0
33,377
9,978
29.9
23,398
23,398
-10.1
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Total Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Prod. Proper.(net of depletion)
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Curr. Assets, L & Adv.
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Adv. and Other CA
Current Liab. & Prov.
Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2011
19,019
383,913
402,932
26,782
5,750
435,465
59,236
20,850
39,819
253,193
10,945
3,277
14,829
44,847
16,655
2012
19,074
463,847
482,921
0
6,841
489,762
59,294
30,207
45,002
253,193
18,356
8,268
14,968
70,135
35,010
2013
19,102
457,892
476,994
0
4,641
481,635
60,645
33,366
43,850
151,889
103,823
6,420
22,852
55,568
61,600
2014
19,076
555,301
574,377
0
7,356
581,733
60,193
38,644
56,969
151,922
163,638
2,971
25,124
17,619
139,829
2015
18,749
569,954
588,702
0
12,718
601,420
59,212
25,336
59,067
151,784
152,334
3,439
11,250
8,517
197,405
2016
18,749
466,861
485,609
0
11,028
496,638
49,965
21,564
56,468
35,044
152,334
5,908
2,571
24,382
195,866
2017E
18,749
482,356
501,104
0
11,404
512,508
31,624
13,883
56,178
35,044
152,334
6,260
13,772
54,593
195,866
(INR Million)
2018E
18,749
498,091
516,839
0
12,071
528,910
21,191
16,448
52,363
35,044
152,334
6,936
15,260
83,291
195,866
12,638
16,628
50,342
435,465
24,828
19,946
83,608
489,762
17,399
40,978
88,063
481,635
27,166
48,009
110,367
581,733
40,180
26,743
153,688
601,420
19,831
27,633
181,262
496,638
21,012
26,033
223,445
512,508
23,283
26,541
251,529
528,910
21 October 2016
8

Cairn India
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Adjusted EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
Adj. Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / BOE (in USD, 1P basis)
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (No. of Days)
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Net Debt / Equity (x)
2011
33.3
33.3
39.6
211.9
78.7
0.0
0.0
2012
41.6
48.7
49.2
253.2
120.4
0.0
0.0
2013
63.1
63.1
72.8
249.7
170.2
11.5
21.2
2014
65.2
65.2
77.2
301.1
221.5
12.5
22.1
2015
23.9
37.1
37.6
314.0
233.0
9.0
28.4
2016
-50.3
11.4
28.0
259.0
240.3
3.0
30.7
2017E
13.9
13.9
30.9
267.3
248.6
3.6
30.7
2018E
12.5
12.5
30.2
275.7
257.0
3.3
30.7
4.8
4.7
1.9
5.1
0.6
5.1
15.5
6.3
4.6
4.3
0.7
1.7
16.7
7.5
5.4
6.1
0.9
1.6
18.6
7.7
4.2
5.2
0.8
1.4
17.1
16.5
21.5
32
1.5
21.0
19.1
24.9
41.5
1.8
24.8
24.0
36.6
39.4
2.1
23.6
22.1
37.6
46.7
2.1
12.0
9.8
16.8
45.3
1.1
4.0
2.8
4.7
55.0
0.6
5.3
5.0
10.4
55.0
0.6
4.6
4.6
9.5
55.0
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Profit /(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Other op activities
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Capital
CF from Op. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP
Free Cash Flow
Related party loan
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Interest & dvd received
CF from Inv. Activity
Change in Equity
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Other fin, activities
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc / ( Dec) in Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance b/f deposit
Bank deposit
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
2011
68,900
12,226
4,935
-12,592
-10,088
63,381
-25,648
37,733
-24,438
903
-49,183
670
-7,348
-2,052
0
-8,730
5,468
6,223
11,691
33,156
44,847
2012
84,235
14,709
-6,915
-21,291
-29
70,710
-29,558
41,152
-196
2,449
-27,306
566
-14,419
-1,363
0
-15,216
28,188
11,467
39,656
30,480
70,135
2013
121,548
18,873
-1,448
-22,687
-5,730
110,556
-16,313
94,243
-117,506
3,238
-130,581
589
-12,500
-968
-11,098
-23,977
-44,002
44,463
462
55,106
55,568
2014
128,496
23,545
-773
-26,227
-14,113
110,928
-28,733
82,195
-55,700
3,142
-81,291
-945
0
-358
-27,939
-29,242
395
463
858
16,762
17,619
2015
51,091
47,545
1,501
-10,873
5,938
95,202
-55,744
39,458
-77,425
68,298
5,458
-59,414
-11,071
-47
-121
-23,094
-34,334
1,455
833
2,288
6,229
8,517
2016
22,392
31,072
-17
-1,663
-11,710
40,074
-16,232
23,842
0
2,617
-13,615
0
0
0
-8,774
-8,774
17,685
2,270
19,955
4,426
24,382
2017E
30,835
31,822
-3,664
-4,436
-11,971
42,587
-5,800
36,787
0
3,954
-1,846
0
0
0
-10,529
-10,529
30,212
24,382
54,593
54,593
(INR Million)
2018E
33,377
33,300
-2,514
-9,311
614
55,465
-25,432
30,033
0
6,329
-19,103
0
0
0
-7,664
-7,664
28,698
54,593
83,291
83,291
21 October 2016
9

Cairn India
Corporate profile
Company description
Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased
Cairn India, an E&P company, was listed in January
2007 through an IPO after it spun off from its
parent Cairn Energy Plc. Cairn Energy sold its
majority stake to Vedanta group making it a parent
with ~60% stake. Cairn has working interest in 9
E&P blocks. Ravva and Cambay blocks produce
about 34kboepd (Cairn WI 9.2kbpd). The Rajasthan
block, which accounts for ~80% of Cairn’s reserves,
produced ~191kbpd (Cairn WI ~ 134kbpd) in
4QFY14.
Source: MOSL/Bloomberg
Exhibit 2: Shareholding pattern (%)
Sep-16
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
59.9
10.9
15.3
14.0
Jun-16
59.9
10.1
15.8
14.2
Sep-15
59.9
10.4
13.1
16.7
Source: Capitaline
Exhibit 3: Top holders
Holder Name
Cairn UK Holdings Limited
Life Insurance Corporation Of India
% Holding
9.8
9.1
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Source: Capitaline
Exhibit 4: Top management
Name
Navin Agarwal
Mayank Ashar
Neerja Sharma
Designation
Chairman
Managing Director
Company Secretary
Exhibit 5: Directors
Name
Aman Mehta*
Edward T Story*
Mayank Ashar
Naresh Chandra*
Name
Navin Agarwal
Omkar Goswami*
Priya Agarwal
Tarun Jain
Source: Capitaline
*Independent
Exhibit 6: Auditors
Name
S R Batliboi & Associates
Type
Statutory
Exhibit 7: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS
(INR)
FY17
FY18
MOSL
forecast
13.9
12.5
Consensus
forecast
8.3
11.2
Variation
(%)
67.9
11.2
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Capitaline
21 October 2016
10

Cairn India
NOTES
21 October 2016
11

Disclosures
Cairn India
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Varun.kumar@motilaloswal.com
Contact : (+65) 68189232
Office Address:21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931
Kadambari Balachandran
kadambari.balachandran@motilaloswal.com
(+65) 68189233 / 65249115
21 October 2016
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
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