21 October 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector:
Media
BSE SENSEX
28,130
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,699
DBCL IN
183.4
73/1.1
448/284
1/11/23
20
30.1
CMP: INR398
TP: INR465 (+17%)
D B Corp
Buy
Dip in ad growth transitory
Broader story intact; maintain EPS estimates
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj. Net Profit
Adj. EPS (INR)
Adj. EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
2016 2017E 2018E
20.5
5.4
3.0
16.2
-7.4
73.3
22.6
20.0
24.5
5.4
23.7
7.1
4.0
21.7
34.0
83.1
27.8
24.8
18.3
4.8
26.5
8.2
4.7
25.8
18.9
94.7
29.0
26.2
15.4
4.2
Operational improvement trickles down to PAT:
DB Corp’s (DBCL) 2QFY17
EBITDA grew 33.6% YoY to INR1.5b (9.6% above our estimate of INR1.37b),
albeit off a low base. Despite weak revenues, DBCL reported better-than-
expected EBITDA, primarily led by INR57.7m reversal of provision for royalty
payable to the Indian Performing Rights Society (IPRS) and MTM gains from
partial disposal of shares in Gitanjali Gems as part of an ad-for-equity deal.
PAT grew 47% YoY to INR885m (v/s our estimate of INR738m), led by EBITDA
improvement, lower depreciation and higher net other income.
Ad growth impacted by ‘Shradh’:
Unlike FY16, the entire Shradh season fell in
2QFY17. Typically, advertisers limit spends during this season. Print ad
revenues grew 7% YoY to INR3.3b (7.5% below our estimate of INR3.57b). Ad
growth in 2Q and 1HFY17 was largely volume-driven. We marginally lower our
FY17/FY18 ad growth estimates to 15%/11% (v/s 16%/12% earlier).
Circulation growth moderates, albeit off high base:
Circulation revenue grew
12% YoY to INR1.18b (v/s our estimate of INR1.21b), led by yield improvement
in mature markets. We note that this was the first quarter in over four years
wherein DBCL’s circulation revenue growth dropped below 15%. We
marginally cut our circulation growth estimate to 14% from 15% to factor in
the high base.
Margins expand on lower SG&A :
Margins expanded 490bp YoY to 28.5% (v/s
our estimate of 25%) as SG&A expenses came in below expectations led by (1)
reversal of provision for royalty payable to IPRS (INR57.7m) and (2) MTM
gains from deal with Gitanjali Gems (~INR100.7m). Adjusted for these one-
offs, margins were largely in line with expectations. RM costs came in line at
INR1.63b, up 9% YoY – of which 5% was contributed by newsprint
consumption (INR47,030 metric tonnes) and 4% by newsprint prices
(INR34.75/kg).
Maintaining TP and Buy:
We largely maintain our PAT estimates and expect
26% PAT CAGR over FY16-18, factoring in 13% CAGR each in ad and circulation
revenue over FY16-18E. The stock trades at P/E of 18.3x FY17E and 15.4x
FY18E. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR465, based on P/E of 18x FY18E
(in line with average P/E of 18x since listing).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Jay Gandhi
(Jay.Gandhi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3089 6693
Aliasgar Shakir
(Aliasgar.shakir@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3010 2415