27 October 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Cummins India
BSE SENSEX
27,916
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,615
KKC IN
277.2
236.2/ 3.5
1,100 / 747
-3/-13/-22
248
49.0
CMP: INR852
TP: INR836 (-2%)
Neutral
Results disappoint; cutting estimates, maintain Neutral
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
47.0
50.6
57.3
EBITDA
7.7
7.9
9.5
Adj PAT
7.5
7.4
8.6
EPS (INR)
27.2
26.6
31.0
EPS Gr. (%)
-4.0
-2.2
16.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
114.4 125.1 137.5
RoE (%)
24.9
22.6
23.6
RoCE (%)
25.2
22.5
23.8
P/E (x)
31.3
32.0
27.5
P/BV (x)
7.4
6.8
6.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Weak operating performance:
Cummins India’s (KKC) 2QFY17 revenue grew
7% YoY to INR12.8b (in line with our estimate of INR13b). EBITDA declined
1.4% YoY to INR2b (lower than our estimate of INR2.2b). EBITDA margin shrank
134bp YoY to 15.6% (below our estimate of 17%). PAT declined 0.5% YoY to
INR1.96b (below our estimate of INR2b).
Revenue growth supported by domestic segment as well as bounce back of
export segment:
KKC’s revenue grew 7% YoY, supported by 8% YoY growth in
domestic segment. Domestic revenue was aided by the industrial (up 20%
YoY), automotive (up 13% YoY) and distribution & spares (up 14% YoY)
segments. Exports registered muted growth of 1% YoY after declining for the
last four quarters. KKC has maintained its FY17 revenue guidance for the
export (flat to 5% decline) and domestic (10-12% growth) segments.
Gross margin decline led by weak product mix and decline in exports:
Gross
margin declined 250bp YoY to 35.2%, led by adverse product mix (higher share
of industrial segment and low kva engines) and lower exports. Exports
contributed 35% of total revenue against 38% in 2QFY16. Exports enjoy better
margins than domestic sales.
Premium valuations; retain Neutral:
We cut our earnings estimates by 8% for
FY17 and 3% for FY18 to factor in the prevailing weak product mix, which will
continue to pressurize margins. Given the weak 1HFY17 results, sluggish
outlook for the export segment (35% of sales), and premium valuations, we
maintain our
Neutral
rating on the stock. The stock currently trades at 32x
FY17E EPS of INR26.6 and at 27.5x FY18E EPS of INR31. Our revised target price
is INR836 (27x FY18E EPS). Key risks to our rating are (a) faster than expected
revival in the domestic power generation market, and (b) sharp rise in
commodity prices, leading to pick-up in LHP exports.
(INR Million)
FY16
2Q
3Q
4Q
11,946 11,469 10,614
4.4
5.9
-6.4
2,019 1,550 1,773
6.3 -18.2
0.8
16.9
13.5
16.7
200
201
206
24
2
24
601
566
513
2,396 1,912 2,056
417
288
386
17.4
15.1
18.8
1,980 1,624 1,670
(2.2) (10.3) (12.3)
1,980 1,624 1,670
(2.2) (10.3) (12.3)
1Q
12,590
-3.9
2,063
-6.9
16.4
206
21
416
2,252
440
19.5
1,812
(14.3)
1,812
(14.3)
FY17
FY16 FY17E Vs Est.
2Q
3QE
4QE
1Q
12,790 12,369 12,461 47,130 49,956 12,965
7.1
7.8
17.4
7.0
6.0
8.2
1,990 2,033 2,055 7,822 7,888 2,208
-1.4
31.2
15.9
3.3
12.8
10.0
15.6
16.4
16.5
16.6
15.8
17.0
209
258
216
810
889
245
43
24
24
96
96
24
692
590
594 2,279 2,292
618
2,430 2,341 2,410 9,195 9,196 2,556
461
19.0
1,969
(0.5)
1,969
(0.5)
468
20.0
1,873
15.3
1,873
15.3
470
19.5
1,940
16.2
1,940
16.2
1,561
17.0
7,634
(2.9)
7,634
(2.9)
1,839
20.0
7,357
(3.6)
7,357
(3.6)
511
20.0
2,045
3.0
2,045
3.0
Var.
(%)
-1.4%
-9.9%
-8.6%
KKC: Quarterly Performance (Standalone)
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
As of % Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
13,101
25.3
2,217
23.3
16.9
203
24
595
2,585
472
18.2
2,114
(0.3)
2,114
(0.3)
-4.9%
-3.7%
-3.7%
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1556
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1543
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.