27 October 2016
Q3CY16 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
Castrol India
Buy
BSE SENSEX
27,916
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,615
CSTRL IN
494.6
226.3 / 3.4
495 / 360
-1/6/-4
592
49.0
CMP: INR458
TP:INR529(+16%)
Earnings miss on lower-than-expected volumes, realization and margins
Castrol’s (CSTRL) 3QCY16 reported revenues at INR7.6b (est. of INR8.2b; -3%
YoY, -22% QoQ) were impacted by lower volume growth and realizations.
While volumes were up YoY, they were below estimate due to a dip in the
heavy duty (extended monsoon impact) and marine segments. Personal
mobility and power brands showed stable growth. Implied realizations were
also lower, and given that prices were not cut by the company, we believe it
would have given higher rebates.
Lower realizations and marginally higher RM costs impacted gross margin.
Hence, despite control on other expenses, EBITDA stood at INR2.1b (-1% YoY; -
33% QoQ), below estimate of INR2.5b. EBITDA margin stood at 27.7% (v/s
27.2% in 3QCY15 and 32.5% in 2QCY16).
Reported PAT stood at INR1.4b (-3% YoY, -33% QoQ).
The current quarter’s weak growth, in our view, can be primarily ascribed to
heavy and elongated monsoon, and expect volume growth trajectory to
resume in 4QCY16. We expect more clarity in the results concall.
Outlook:
Castrol’s strong 9MCY16 performance was driven by continued
strength in its personal mobility segment, power brands (double-digit growth)
and revival in CV segment. Future earnings growth will be contingent on
management’s ability to (a) increase the share of high-margin personal
mobility/power brands in the product mix and (b) introduce premium
synthetic products.
Valuations and view
CSTRL’s >80% payout policy, RoE/RoCE of ~100% and FCF to PAT conversion at
>80% reflect its superior balance sheet and high-quality cash flows, which
warrant higher valuation multiples, in our view.
Our CY16/CY17 earnings stand reduced by ~4%, led by marginally higher base
oil prices and lower realizations. Our fair value stands at INR529 (35x CY17),
implying 16% upside (18% including dividend). The stock trades at 30x CY18E
EPS of INR15.1. Maintain
Buy.
CY15
2Q
3Q
9,202 7,811
1.1
-2.3
6,474 5,684
2,728 2,127
45.1
22.7
29.6
27.2
94
94
2
1
186
181
2,818 2,213
973
781
34.5
35.3
1,845 1,432
1,845 1,432
43.7
21.5
20.0
18.3
CY16
2Q
3Q
9,679 7,589
5.2
-2.8
6,535 5,488
3,144 2,101
15.2
-1.2
32.5
27.7
149
107
7
10
202
183
3,190 2,167
1,121
778
35.1
35.9
2,069 1,389
2,069 1,389
12.1
-3.0
21.4
18.3
CY15
4QE
8,319
5.5
5,855
2,464
17.7
29.6
113
5
193
2,539
894
35.2
1,645
1,645
16.8
19.8
32,853
-2.8
24,032
8,821
24.4
26.8
390
8
781
9,204
3,357
36.5
5,847
5,847
22.2
17.8
CY16E
34,108
3.8
23,883
10,225
15.9
30.0
455
26
801
10,545
3,718
35.3
6,827
6,827
16.8
20.0
(INR Million)
CY16 Var (%)
3QE
8,157
-7%
4.4
5,581
-2%
2,576
-18%
21.1
31.6
115
-7%
5
100%
175
5%
2,631
-18%
926
-16%
35.2
1,705
-19%
1,705
-19%
19.1
20.9
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Dec
2015 2016E 2017E
Sales
33.0
34.1
37.2
EBITDA
9.3
10.2
11.0
NP
6.4
6.8
7.5
EPS (Rs)
12.8
13.8
15.1
EPS Growth (%)
33.8
7.1
9.9
BV/Share (Rs)
11.6
13.0
14.4
P/E (x)
32.7
33.4
30.4
P/BV (x)
36.0
35.4
31.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
21.7
21.3
19.6
EV/Sales (x)
6.1
6.4
5.8
RoE (%)
118.4 111.7 110.3
RoCE (%)
118.5 112.0 110.4
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance
Y/E December
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
1Q
7,958
-2.4
6,085
1,873
29.9
23.5
111
3
164
1,923
761
39.6
1,162
1,162
15.9
14.6
4Q
7,882
-7.9
5,789
2,093
2.8
26.6
91
2
250
2,250
842
37.4
1,408
1,408
6.7
17.9
1Q
8,521
7.1
6,005
2,516
34.3
29.5
86
4
223
2,649
925
34.9
1,724
1,724
48.4
20.2
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309