Grasim Industries
BSE SENSEX
27,942
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,638
GRASIM IN
466.8
450.7 / 6.7
1,070/ 648
1/9/27
463
68.7
28 October 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Cement
CMP: INR966
VSF margins remain strong
Under Review
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
2016
2017E
2018E
365.9
60.2
22.6
48.3
26.8
553.4
9.2
10.0
11.0
20.0
1.7
11.3
396.5
79.5
36.5
78.1
61.7
626.2
13.2
13.4
6.8
12.4
1.5
8.8
443.6
101.5
45.1
96.6
23.6
717.8
14.4
15.9
5.2
10.0
1.3
6.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Strong realization drives profits:
Grasim Industries’ (GRASIM) standalone
EBITDA rose 58% YoY (and 4% QoQ) to INR5.3b, and EBITDA margin expanded
5.5pp YoY (flat QoQ), driven by realization improvement. Against revenue
growth of 17% YoY to INR24.9b, PAT grew 55% YoY to INR5.92b, led by better
margins and higher other income.
VSF – margin improvement led by better pricing:
VSF revenue grew 21% YoY
to INR17.4b (our estimate: INR17.6b), led by volume growth of 9% YoY (our
estimate: 13% YoY) and realization growth of 12% YoY. The realization
improvement was driven by good demand, particularly from the domestic
market. Higher realization helped achieve (a) margins of 21.3% (v/s 14.7% in
2QFY16), and (b) RoCE of over 20%.
Softer pricing for Chemicals segment:
Chemicals revenue grew 11% YoY to
INR9.2b. Realization declined sequentially due to increase in India’s production
of caustic soda on account of better availability of water in monsoons.. Margins
remained healthy at 23.2% (+2.7pp YoY, -2.5pp QoQ).
Management outlook:
VSF pricing is likely to be stable in the longer term, as
capacity addition is likely to be limited. However, there could be some
moderation in VSF pricing in the near term. Higher share of specialty fiber sales
should push up overall realizations. VSF capacity at Vilayat could be increased
by another 200tpd by debottlenecking. Supply addition is expected to increase
in the caustic soda segment due to commissioning of new capacities.
Aditya Birla Nuvo-GRASIM merger:
The restructuring will result in the listing of
the merged financial services business, which will be 57% owned by post-
merger GRASIM and the balance by its shareholders on a proportionate basis.
Shareholders will receive three equity shares of GRASIM for every 10 equity
shares of Aditya Birla Nuvo, and seven shares of Aditya Birla Financial Services
for every one equity share of GRASIM.
Valuation and view:
At CMP, GRASIM trades at 12.4x/10x FY17/18E EPS,
8.8x/6.6x FY17/18E EV/EBITDA and EV/ton of USD122 (50-55% discount to
UTCEM’s valuation). Considering this proposed merger, we continue to keep
the stock
under review.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Abhishek Ghosh
(Abhishek.Ghosh@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Varun Gadia
(Varun.gadia@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5446