28 October 2016
Q3CY16 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
Nestle India
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
27,942
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,638
NEST IN
96.4
671.1 / 10.0
7390/4990
8/12/7
270
37.2
CMP: INR6,961 TP: INR7,410 (+6%)
Sales better than anticipated; expect gradual recovery ahead
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Dec
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
81.2
92.6 110.0
EBITDA
15.9
18.8
23.4
PAT
11.6
11.8
14.8
EPS (INR)
119.9 122.3 153.9
Gr. (%)
-7.3
2.0
25.8
BV/Sh (INR)
292.3 340.0 406.7
RoE (%)
40.9
38.7
41.2
RoCE (%)
40.7
38.7
41.2
P/E (x)
58.1
56.9
45.2
P/BV (x)
23.8
20.5
17.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Nestle India’s (NEST) 3QCY16 operating performance better than
expectations:
Net sales were up 35.1% YoY (+4% QoQ) to INR23.5b (est. of
INR22.4b), primarily as the base quarter had sales write-backs and no Maggi
sales. The 25 new products and variants launched over past few months will
gradually help the company to gain some traction. Adj. PAT before
contingencies grew 74.5% YoY to INR2.88b (est. of INR2.32b) over a very weak
base quarter. Sequential EBITDA/PAT growth was 3%/1%.
EBITDA margin expanded 260bp YoY
(est. of +120bp), led by 80bp YoY
improvement in gross margin and 190bp savings on staff costs. EBITDA rose
57% YoY to INR4.49b (est. of INR4b).
9MCY16 results:
9MCY16 sales, EBITDA and PAT growth was muted at 11.7%,
12.6% and 14.4% YoY, respectively, despite absence of Maggi sales for nearly
half of the corresponding period last year, sales write-offs, and logistics and
incineration-related costs on Maggi in the base period.
Valuation and view:
We are encouraged by the much-needed strategic
changes made by the new CEO over the past year. The 25 new launches
(variants of existing products, some premium products and some interesting
new categories) too offer comfort. However, it is still early to gauge the
response to these new products. Based on sequential sales growth and data
presented in the analyst meet two months ago, there is no sign that the
absence of volume growth across categories for the past few years is
undergoing a change for the better. There is also no discernable hint of any
significant change in the overt premiumization strategy that had held back
volume growth for many years. While we raise our EPS forecast by ~8% on
good results, valuations are fair at 39.4x September 2018 EPS. Maintain
Neutral
with a target price of 7,410 (42x September 2018 EPS).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261