2 November 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Cement
J K Cement
Buy
BSE SENSEX
27,527
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,514
JKCE IN
69.9
63.5 / 1.0
990 / 425
5/48/34
22
33.0
2018E
46.2
9.0
4.0
56.9
59.8
311.0
19.9
11.9
14.4
15.9
2.9
9.2
CMP: INR909
TP: INR1,107 (+22%)
Revenues strengthened by white cement
Stable realizations and better performance in white cement drive profits:
2QFY17 revenues grew 5% YoY to INR9.1b (13% above estimate). Grey cement
revenue was flat YoY at INR6b, while white cement revenue increased 19% YoY
to INR3.1b (highest quarterly revenue). Grey cement volume growth of 3.6%
YoY was led by better performance in north, partially offset by lower volume in
south. White cement volume growth was strong at 16% YoY. Blended
realizations improved 1% QoQ (flat YoY), led by better pricing in north. PAT
increased 181% YoY to INR409m, led by lower tax outgo.
Margin expansion led by cost savings:
EBITDA grew 43% YoY (-12% QoQ) to
INR1.46b, translating into margins of 16% (-2.7pp QoQ, +4.2pp YoY). Grey
cement margin contracted 6.1% QoQ (+3.9pp YoY) to 10.9% on account of
rehab-related cost for south operations and one-time cost of INR100m in
2QFY17. White cement margin expanded 5.9pp YoY to 30%. Blended
EBITDA/ton stood at INR761 (-13% QoQ, +36% YoY), while grey cement
EBITDA/ton was INR398 (+49% YoY, -35% QoQ).
Management commentary
: 1)
White cement volume likely to grow at
~22%/15% YoY for FY17/FY18E. 2) White cement capacity can be enhanced by
0.2m tons at north operations to cater to higher demand. 3) West market and
Karnataka have witnessed price increases of INR40/bag and INR20/bag,
respectively, since Aug-16. This should bode well for its south operations. 4) RIL
has reduced petcoke prices by INR200/t effective 1-Nov-16.
Preferred leverage play on earnings growth in north-west markets:
With
lower immediate capex and FCFE of INR3.5-4b in FY17-18, there remains
visibility of deleveraging from the FY16 peak of INR27b (1.6x). We maintain our
Buy
rating with a target price of INR1,107 (EV of USD127/ton on blended
capacity, 10x FY18E grey cement EBITDA and 9x FY18E white cement EBITDA).
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E
Y/E Mar
Sales
35.3
39.7
EBITDA
4.9
6.9
NP
1.0
2.5
Adj EPS (INR)
14.5
35.6
EPS Gr. (%)
-18.8 145.5
BV/Sh. (INR)
232.4 262.2
RoE (%)
6.3
14.4
RoCE (%)
6.2
9.2
Payout (%)
32.2
16.4
P/E (x)
62.6
25.5
P/BV (x)
3.9
3.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
17.8
12.5
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Abhishek Ghosh
(Abhishek.Ghosh@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Varun Gadia
(Varun.gadia@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5446
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.