Fortis Healthcare
BSE SENSEX
27,518
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,526
FORH IN
463.1
199 / 141
-3/-9/-6
79.7
1.2
201
29.7
10 November 2016
Q2FY17 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
CMP: INR165
TP: INR240 (+45%)
Buy
Strong results; robust performance to continue in 2H
FORH’s net revenue grew 11% YoY to INR12b, driven by double-digit growth in
domestic business, marginally offset by divestment of international business.
EBITDA came in at INR990m (v/s BBG est. of INR780m). Consol. EBITDA margin
stood at 8.3% (+216bp YoY, +269bp QoQ). FORH reported positive PAT for
second straight quarter. It is expected to achieve PAT breakeven in FY17.
Hospital business – strong operating leverage:
Hospital revenue grew 11%
YoY, with EBITDAC (pre-business trust cost EBITDA) of INR1.64b (+20% YoY,
+18% QoQ). FORH’s occupancy levels rose to ~82% in 2Q (among best in
industry) from 74% in 1Q and 77% in 2QFY16. Occupancy levels at Fortis
Escorts Hospital rose to ~86% from ~67% in 1Q. EBITDAC margin improved to
16.9% (+123bp YoY, +160bp QoQ), while EBITDA more than doubled YoY/QoQ
to INR443m. We expect this strong EBITDA momentum to continue over next
three years. We expect hospital EBITDA to grow more than 10x by FY19E on
lower base, strong high-teen growth in EBITDAC, relatively flattish BT cost
(normalized level) and FHTL transaction.
Diagnostic business – growth recovery, strong margins bode well:
Diagnostics
business posted strong EBITDA margin of 25.4% (-240bp YoY; +296bp QoQ).
YoY decline in margin is attributed to high base (more H1N1 cases last year)
and higher marketing cost. We expect EBITDA margin for diagnostics to
improve ~200bp by FY19E led by deeper penetration in existing markets,
rationalization of low-margin centers, growth in samples tested and higher
share from O&M model.
Top pick in healthcare delivery space:
FORH is trading at >30-40% discount to
peers. We argue for multiple re-rating on the back of multifold increase in
hospital business EBITDA, SRL demerger, asset light expansion strategy and
FHTL transaction. We value hospital business based on 22x Sep-18 EV/EBITDA,
and diagnostics business based on 25x Sep-18 EV/EBITDA. FORH remains our
top pick in healthcare delivery space with TP of INR240.
FY16
2Q
3Q
10,785 10,411
4.6
1.6
10,126 10,274
659
138
6.1
1.3
469
549
295
290
823
127
718
-574
279
0
439
2
0.5
-115
552
830
-242.8
7.7
-574
103
-17.9
-124
-552
-552
148.0
-5.3
FY17E
2Q
3QE
11,957 11,806
10.9
13.4
10,968 10,499
990
1,308
8.3
11.1
517
800
461
900
380
-50
393
-442
-9
0
402
242
60.2
-154
314
310
-62.6
2.6
-442
100
-22.6
-30
-512
-512
-7.2
-4.3
(INR Million)
FY16
FY17E
4QE
12,381
13.8
10,863
1,519
12.3
858
1,070
-60
-469
0
-469
129
-27.6
-31
-567
-567
-37.6
-4.6
42,422
2.5
41,429
993
2.3
2,264
1,293
2,682
118
279
-161
319
-198.3
-503
22
855
-159.5
2.0
47,357
11.6
42,915
4,442
9.4
2,650
2,850
600
-458
-9
-449
500
-111.5
-344
-604
-624
-173.0
-1.3
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
42.7
47.4
53.7
EBITDA
2.2
4.4
6.8
PAT
-0.9
-0.6
1.6
EPS (INR)
-1.9
-1.3
3.5
Gr. (%)
-58.3
-51.2 -283.8
BV/Sh (INR)
86.3
85.0 100.7
RoE (%)
-89.5 -129.8
48.7
RoCE (%)
2.0
2.0
1.7
P/E (x)
-2.2
-1.5
3.8
P/BV (x)
1.1
3.0
4.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Consolidated
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
Tota l Expendi ture
EBITDA
Ma rgi ns (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra -Ord expens e
1Q
10,343
1.3
9,858
485
4.7
533
342
1,271
882
0
4Q
10,883
2.3
11,171
-288
-2.7
714
366
461
-908
0
-908
118
-13.0
-117
-909
-909
418.3
-8.3
1Q
11,212
8.4
10,585
626
5.6
476
420
330
61
0
61
29
47.3
-130
162
162
-82.6
1.4
PBT
882
Ta x
96
Ra te (%)
10.9
Mi nori ty Interes t & Profi t/Los s of As s o. Co -146
Reported PAT
932
Adj PAT
932
YoY Cha nge (%)
-303.4
Ma rgi ns (%)
9.0
E: MOSL Es ti ma tes
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Gaurav Tinani
(Gaurav.Tinani@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1552
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.