21 November 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Cement
India Cements
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
25,765
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,929
ICEM IN
307.2
32.7 / 0.5
164 / 64
-23/25/30
499
71.7
CMP: INR106
TP: INR118 (+11%)
Strong volumes and cost efficiencies drive profits
Cement volumes increased 14% YoY
to 2.46mt (est. of 2.51mt) in 2QFY17, led
by 7-8% YoY growth in south markets and higher sales to east market.
Realizations rose 2.2% QoQ (-6% YoY) due to partial impact of increase in prices
in AP/Telangana in Aug-16. Revenues grew 6.7% YoY to INR13b (est. of
INR11.7b).
Cost curve favorable:
EBITDA declined 2% YoY to INR2.2b, translating into
margin of 17.2% (+50pp QoQ, -50pp YoY). Unitary cost of production declined
4% YoY (+1% QoQ) as improved fuel mix led to lower power and fuel costs.
Cement EBITDA/ton stood at INR872 (-13% YoY, +1% QoQ).
Management commentary on impact of demonetization:
(a) Cement demand
destruction unlikely; may witness some delay in demand pick-up. (b)
Proportion of cash in cement purchase is only 10-15%. (c) Cement prices in
ICEM’s focus markets remain unchanged post demonetization. (d) Land prices
do not impact cement demand.
Maintain Neutral:
ICEM, which enjoys good brand recall and market share, is a
healthy play on southern recovery. However, despite its strategically located
plants, cost structure is relatively high due to vintage constraints. High
investments in non-cement businesses and lack of management focus on core
business keep valuation at discount. We maintain
Neutral
with TP of INR118
(EV of 7x FY18E EBITDA and USD65/ton). Sustained recovery in southern
demand and better capital allocation are key re-rating triggers, in our view.
(INR Million)
FY17
Var.
2QE
(%)
2.51
-2
16.0
4,685
12
-15.9
-9.4
11,765
11
9.0
2,157
4
18.3
635
920
55
657
0
657
164
25.0
493
493
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016
2017E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
42.3
49.4
EBITDA
7.7
7.7
NP
1.4
1.6
EPS (INR)
4.4
5.4
EPS Gr. (%)
-11,446 23.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
118.8
122.7
RoE (%)
3.9
4.2
RoCE (%)
5.9
5.9
P/E (x)
24.2
19.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.0
7.7
EV/Ton (USD)
63
62
2018E
54.7
8.7
2.5
8.9
64.8
129.6
6.4
7.2
11.9
6.7
62
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Standalone)
Y/E March
Sales Dispatches (m ton)
YoY Change (%)
Realization (INR/ton)
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra-Ord expense
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
2.10
-18
5,047
18.9
4.7
10,743
-12.4
1,960
18.2
554
965
44
485
107
378
0
0.0
378
485
FY16
2Q
2.17
-8
5,570
19.7
10.4
12,258
8.3
2,296
18.7
557
985
33
788
40
748
363
48.5
385
405
3Q
1.94
-8
4,746
-0.6
-14.8
9,296
-10.3
1,462
15.7
552
906
74
79
0
79
24
30.9
55
55
4Q
2.50
19
3,957
-17.9
-16.6
11,471
11.9
2,115
18.4
522
913
70
750
0
750
238
31.7
512
512
1Q
2.31
10
5,173
2.5
30.7
12,025
11.9
2,014
16.7
511
825
32
710
0
710
271
38.1
440
440
FY17
2Q
3QE
2.46
2.07
14
7
5,259
5,309
-5.6
11.8
1.7
1.0
13,075 11,105
6.7
19.5
2,244
1,519
17.2
13.7
521
545
876
890
69
65
917
0
917
293
31.9
624
624
149
0
149
37
25.0
112
112
FY16
4QE
2.56
2
5,064
28.0
-4.0
13,172
14.8
1,893
14.4
701
855
130
466
0
466
72
15.5
394
394
8.70
-4.5
4,797
4.1
42,269
-4.4
7,813
18.5
2,180
3,704
222
2,150
147
2,003
625
31.2
1,378
1,480
FY17E
9.40
8.0
5,196
8.3
49,378
16.8
7,670
15.5
2,279
3,445
296
2,242
2,242
673
30.0
1,570
1,570
27
Abhishek Ghosh
(Abhishek.Ghosh@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Varun Gadia
(Varun.Gadia@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5446
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.