Zee Entertainment
BSE SENSEX
26,052
S&P CNX
8,033
23 November 2016
Company Update | Sector: Media
CMP: INR458
TP: INR610 (+33%)
Buy
Zee Group to acquire RBNL’s TV and radio assets
TV assets with flagship ZEE Entertainment and radio assets with sister concern
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Z IN
960.5
494.8 / 7.3
589 / 350
-5/4/12
935
56.9
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
58.3
68.0
76.7
EBITDA
15.0
19.5
25.5
NP
10.2
14.1
18.5
EPS (INR)
10.6
14.7
19.3
EPS Gr. (%)
3.9
39.2
31.1
EPS ex-&TV, INR 11.8
15.5
19.1
RoE (%)
27.0
30.6
32.3
RoCE (%)
17.7
21.6
24.8
Div. Payout (%) 21.3
15.3
12.9
Valuations
P/E (x)
43.3
31.1
23.7
P/E ex-&TV (x)
38.7
29.6
24.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
29.6
21.3
15.9
Div. Yield (%)
0.5
0.5
0.5
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Sep-16 Jun-16 Sep-15
Promoter
43.1
43.1
43.1
DII
3.6
3.8
3.5
FII
48.0
48.1
48.4
Others
5.3
5.0
5.0
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Zee Entertainmen
Sensex - Rebased
600
500
400
300
Zee Entertainment’s Board of Directors today approved the acquisition of Reliance
Group’s TV assets (five TV channel licenses, including two entertainment channels –
Big Magic and Big Ganga). In a separate deal, RBNL’s radio assets (45 operational and
14 non-operational radio licenses) were bought by sister concern Zee Media.
Zee shall pay the purchase consideration (INR2.98b) by issuing 6% preference shares
redeemable within three years and by assuming debt of the demerging entities. The
transaction is expected to close in 2HCY17.
We believe Zee’s 48% current foreign portfolio holdings would have played a part in
routing the radio business purchase through sister concern Zee Media Corporation
Ltd (ZMCL) as the FDI limit for radio is capped at 49%.
Big Magic + Big Ganga with revenues of ~INR1.2b fit well with Zee’s genre and
regional expansion strategy:
Big Magic – which has a strong reach of 85m out
of total ~170m cable and satellite (C&S) households in India – adds comedy
genre to Zee’s bouquet. It consistently garnered ~170-200k television
viewership in thousands (TVTs) in October, which is around half of the genre
leader Sony SAB. Big Ganga is a dominant player in the Bhojpuri segment, with
average of ~34k TVTs in October. Zee’s strong semi-urban/rural distribution
should aid further growth in these channels. FY16 revenues for Big Magic + Big
Ganga stood at ~INR1.2b. The two channels have recorded revenue CAGR
FY14-16 of ~20% (1HFY17 revenues: INR1.42b).
Deal comes with embedded tax benefits:
The INR2.98b purchase
consideration will be paid to RBNL via issuance of 6% preference shares
redeemable within three years and by assuming RBNL’s INR2.95b debt,
implying ~2.5x EV/sales. However, Zee could use ~INR2.7b accrued tax losses
and CENVAT benefits of Big Magic + Big Ganga over a 2-3 year period
(accumulated losses for Big Magic+ Big Ganga stood at ~INR6.5b).
Sister concern ZMCL to take RBNL’s radio assets:
ZMCL – Zee Group’s news
and current affairs division – will take RBNL’s radio assets (45 operational and
14 non-operational radio licenses) for INR15.92b. The deal values RBNL’s radio
assets at 13.7x FY16 and 12.9x FY17 (annualized), at a 20% discount to market
leader ENIL (EV/EBITDA of 17x FY16). ZMCL and RBNL will have a call and put
option, respectively, for the balance 51% after a three-year lock-in period
(expected to end in March 2020).
TV channels purchase – a freebie considering embedded tax benefits;
maintain estimates:
We maintain our estimates as Zee’s purchase of RBNL’s TV
channels was hardly the bone of contention. Due to embedded tax benefits, it
is largely a freebie by RBNL to the Zee Group. We maintain
Buy
with a target
price of INR610, based on 32x FY18E EPS (ex-&TV) plus INR18/share toward
&TV DCF value less INR18/share toward pref. share liability.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Jay Gandhi
(Jay.Gandhi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1546
Aliasgar Shakir
(Aliasgar.Shakir@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 30102415