Allcargo Logistics
BSE SENSEX
26,052
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,033
AGLL IN
252.1
41.3/ 0.6
222 / 135
-1/6/-16
50
30.2
23 November 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Logistics
CMP: INR164
TP: INR196 (+20%)
Buy
Steady performance in challenging environment
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
56.6
57.9
62.2
EBITDA
5.2
5.1
5.7
PAT
2.7
2.7
3.2
EPS (INR)
10.8
10.6
12.8
Gr. (%)
17.2
(2.2) 21.4
BV/Sh (INR)
87.5
71.1
81.2
RoE (%)
13.2
13.3
16.8
RoCE (%)
11.2
10.9
13.7
P/E (x)
15.2
15.5
12.8
P/BV (x)
1.9
2.3
2.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.7
7.8
6.4
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Allcargo’s (AGLL) EBITDA declined 6% YoY (-3% QoQ) to INR1.26b (est. of INR1.27b)
due to slowdown in the project logistics business and transfer of certain business in
JV. Reported EBIT stood at INR827m (est. of INR830m; +5% YoY; -4% QoQ), while
PAT was INR643m (est. of INR630m; +6% YoY; +3% QoQ) driven by a lower tax rate
of 21.7% (est. of 28%; 29% in 1QFY17).
MTO volumes up 8% YoY, despite weak macros:
AGLL’s MTO volumes grew
8% YoY to 127,463 TEUs in 2QFY17, despite muted global trade. Growth
continued to come from the key markets of India, China and South East Asia.
Realizations declined 9% YoY led by falling freight rates, while EBIT margin
increased to 4.1% (v/s 3.9% in 2QFY16).
Margin improvement for CFS segment:
CFS volumes stood at 69,260 TEUs (flat
YoY, -7.8% QoQ). CFS revenue stood at INR1.1b (+5% YoY, +1% QoQ).
Realizations were INR15,494/TEU, as against INR15,726 in the year-ago period.
EBIT/TEU stood at INR5,732 (v/s INR5,080 in 2QFY16), helped by handling of
specialized cargo in Chennai CFS.
P&E impacted by slowdown in project logistics business:
P&E segment’s EBIT
stood at INR110m (-21% YoY; -38% QoQ) led by management’s conscious
decision to move away from low RoCE business, resulting in sale of aged assets.
Valuation and view:
With (a) current businesses largely in steady state and minimal capex
requirement and (b) strong balance sheet and ~8-9% FCF yield, AGLL is well
placed to invest in DFC/GST-led opportunities.
We value AGLL at FY18E EV/EBITDA of 8.5x and arrive at fair value of INR196.
On FY18E, the stock trades at P/E of 12.8x and EV/EBITDA of INR6.4x. Maintain
Buy.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Abhishek Ghosh
(Abhishek.Ghosh@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309