18 January 2017
Market snapshot
Equities - India
Close
Chg .%
Sensex
27,236
-0.2
Nifty-50
8,398
-0.2
Nifty-M 100
15,243
0.0
Equities-Global
Close
Chg .%
S&P 500
2,268
-0.3
Nasdaq
9,355
0.7
FTSE 100
7,220
-1.5
DAX
11,540
-0.1
Hang Seng
9,702
0.4
Nikkei 225
18,814
-1.5
Commodities
Close
Chg .%
Brent (US$/Bbl)
56
1.5
Gold ($/OZ)
1,217
1.2
Cu (US$/MT)
5,731
-1.9
Almn (US$/MT)
1,802
0.3
Currency
Close
Chg .%
USD/INR
68.0
-0.2
USD/EUR
1.1
1.1
USD/JPY
112.6
-1.4
YIELD (%)
Close 1MChg
10 Yrs G-Sec
6.4
0.0
10 Yrs AAA Corp
7.5
0.0
Flows (USD b)
17-Jan
MTD
FIIs
0.0
-0.5
DIIs
-0.1
0.3
Volumes (INRb) 17-Jan MTD*
Cash
202
203
F&O
3,537
3,474
Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg
YTD.%
2.3
2.6
6.2
YTD.%
1.3
1.1
1.1
0.5
3.3
-1.6
YTD.%
0.8
5.6
3.8
5.8
YTD.%
0.1
1.9
-3.7
YTDchg
-0.1
-0.1
CY16
2.9
5.3
CY16*
220
3,447
Today’s top research ideas
Shriram City Union Finance (INITIATING COVERAGE): The
Quintessential NBFC; Tapping the untapped market
SCUF is a diversified NBFC with strong expertise in low ticket size and high growth
products like MSME and 2W lending. At INR0.5m, the average MSME ticket size of
the company is significantly lower than business loans of other banks/NBFCs.
Banks find it economically infeasible to cater to this segment with such small ticket
loans, resulting in modest competition for SCUF. SCUF is the country’s largest two-
wheeler financier by volumes, disbursing ~75,000 loans a month. While AUM grew
at 42% CAGR over FY05-13, growth was badly hit due to wind-down of the gold loan
portfolio and a sluggish rural economy. However, with the necessary infrastructure
in place as well as improving credit demand, we expect SCUF to record 19% AUM
CAGR over FY16-19E driven by strong growth in MSME and personal loans.
With robust capitalization (Tier I of 23%+), improving return ratios (3.7% ROA,
16.8% ROE by FY19E) and robust AUM CAGR, we expect stock to deliver 35% return
over next 12 months. Buy with a target price of INR2,500 (2.5x FY19E BVPS).
Research covered
Cos/Sector
Shriram City Union Fin.
NIIT Technologies
Dewan Housing
LIC Housing Finance
AVIATION
Results Expectation
Key Highlights
The Quintessential NBFC; Tapping the untapped market
Stellar cash generation; Offset by patchy growth trajectory
Temporary impact from demonetization; cost of funds down sharply
Growth continues to be driven by the non-core businesses
Dec-16 domestic air passenger growth at 23.4% YoY;
KPIT Technology
Piping hot news
Tax breather for foreign investors
Quote of the day
In a commodity business, it’s very hard to
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) can now breathe easy with the Income Tax (I-
be smarter than your dumbest
T) Department on Tuesday putting in abeyance its controversial circular on
competitor.
taxing India-dedicated funds. Experts said clarity was necessary on the issue at
the earliest so that FPIs were certain.
Chart of the Day: SCUF - MSME sector lacks sufficient access to formal financing (INR t)
Overall finance gap in the MSME sector (INR t)
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.