19 January 2017
3QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Technology
MindTree
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
27,309
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,435
MTCL IN
50
38.9 / 0.8
804 / 400
-7/-11/-45
374
86.3
CMP: INR485
TP: INR530(+9%)
Deal wins strong, top clients and visibility not so
Continued revenue pressure…:
MTCL’s 3QFY17 revenue declined 0.4% QoQ
(+0.4% QoQ CC), in line with our estimate, led by project cancellations,
slower ramp-up at large clients and continued weakness in acquired entities.
With softness in top clients expected to continue, growth is not likely to pick
up in 4Q. Clarity on the FY18 outlook remains elusive, partly negating
confidence that deal wins could support growth recovery.
…but deal wins touching new highs:
Deal wins clocked USD314m in 3QFY17,
as against four-quarter average of USD222m, taking LTM deal wins to
~USD1b (+30% YoY). That said, it came on the back of a sluggish September
quarter and, consequently, 2HCY16 TCV of USD497m matches 1H’s
USD501m. 34% of TCV in the quarter came from Digital, with many of the
deals channeled through third-party advisers. Average deal sizes in Digital
continue to inch up, now at ~USD900k for new clients.
Profitability beat on lower headcount and SGA:
EBITDA margin expanded
90bp (v/s est. of flat margins) led by SGA optimization. PAT grew 8.8% QoQ
to INR1b (v/s est. of INR1.1b). While revenue revival remains the key, other
levers to achieve growth are offshoring, lesser sub-contracting, large
transformational deals to tackle pricing pressure, and improved profitability
in Bluefin and Magnet360.
Valuation view:
We cut earnings by 6.9%/0.2% for FY18/19E to factor in
delay in revenue recovery and consequent lowering of FY17E exit rate. While
MTCL is an attractive long-term Digital play, greater confidence in the same
will be a function of traction in revenues, especially from top clients. Valuing
it at 14x FY19E earnings, we maintain
Neutral
with a revised TP of INR530.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E
Net Sales
46.9
52.3
EBITDA
8.3
7.1
PAT
6.0
4.2
EPS (INR)
35.9
25.1
Gr. (%)
12.4
-29.9
BV/Sh (INR)
142.4
151.2
RoE (%)
27.4
17.1
RoCE (%)
30.6
19.6
P/E (x)
13.5
19.2
P/BV (x)
3.4
3.2
2018E
58.6
8.5
5.7
33.7
34.2
170.5
21.0
22.8
14.3
2.8
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531