25 October 2016
2QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Financials
Federal Bank
Buy
BSE SENSEX
27,309
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,435
FB IN
1,719.0
139.2/2.1
82/41
13/61/40
414
100.0
CMP: INR77
TP: INR105 (+36%)
Strong balance sheet and core PPoP growth; Stable asset quality
Federal Bank’s (FB) 3QFY17 PAT grew 26% YoY to INR2.05b (10% beat), led by
strong core PPoP growth (+42% YoY) and lower credit costs (64bp annualized).
NII grew 31% YoY and 9% QoQ to INR7.9b, driven by strong loan growth and
stable sequential NIM (+28bp YoY to 3.3%). Adjusted for one-off income of
INR190m, NII grew 28% YoY.
Other income increased 44% YoY (5% miss), led by strong growth in fee income
(+33% YoY). Trading gains were lower than expected at INR860m (27% of PBT)
Strong loan growth of 32% YoY was driven by corporate (+71% YoY;
predominantly consisting of working capital loans) and retail (ex-gold loans,
+35% YoY). Deposit growth of 23% YoY (+7% QoQ) was led by strong
mobilization in SA deposits (+32% YoY). CASA ratio improved 360bp QoQ to
34.7% (CASA grew 33% YoY)
Incremental slippages increased marginally to INR2.73b from INR2.66b in 2Q
(annualized slippage ratio of ~2.1%), led by higher slippages in corporate and
retail. The bank made use of the RBI’s 90dpd dispensation on portfolio of
~INR350-400m. Absolute GNPA increased 7% QoQ, but remained stable in
percentage terms (2.77%). There was no sale to ARC during the quarter.
Valuation and view:
We are enthused by FB’s core operating performance, driven by
its strong balance sheet. Although the bank’s corporate asset quality issues may
not be completely behind, we believe it is ahead of corporate lending peer banks
on the asset quality curve. Considering asset quality distractions in the PSU space,
we believe FB is well positioned to gain market share in highly rated corporates.
We largely maintain FY17/18 estimates, and retain
Buy
with a target price of
INR105 (1.8x December FY18 BV) based on RI model.
FY16
2Q
6,083
0.4
1,823
7,906
4,540
3,366
-17.9
873
2,493
880
1,613
-32.9
3.1
14.3
5.0
15.0
2.9
3Q
6,057
3.2
1,828
7,885
4,630
3,255
-18.1
751
2,504
877
1,627
-38.5
3.1
14.1
9.8
16.8
3.2
4Q
6,859
10.1
2,269
9,128
5,183
3,945
-15.9
3,886
59
-44
103
-96.3
3.4
11.8
13.3
16.7
2.8
1Q
6,927
14.5
2,370
9,297
5,039
4,259
16.0
1,685
2,574
901
1,673
18.3
3.3
12.5
19.3
17.5
2.9
FY17
2Q
3Q
7,262
7,914
19.4
30.7
2,616
2,633
9,878
10,547
5,128
5,798
4,750
4,749
41.1
45.9
1,684
1,588
3,066
3,161
1,053
1,104
2,013
2,057
24.8
26.4
3.3
17.0
27.2
18.2
2.8
3.3
23.3
32.0
19.5
2.8
4QE
8,043
17.3
2,854
10,897
6,064
4,833
22.5
1,506
3,327
1,163
2,165
2,010.0
3.2
22.0
25.0
20.9
2.9
FY16
25,042
5.2
7,864
32,906
18,668
14,238
-12.5
7,041
7,197
2,440
4,757
-52.7
3.2
11.8
13.3
16.7
2.8
FY17E
30,145
20.4
10,473
40,619
22,029
18,590
30.6
6,463
12,128
4,220
7,907
66.2
3.3
22.0
25.0
20.9
2.9
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
NII
25.0
30.1
35.2
OP
14.2
18.6
21.7
NP
4.8
7.9
9.4
NIM (%)
3.2
3.3
3.1
EPS (INR)
2.8
4.6
5.5
EPS Gr. (%)
-52.9 66.1
19.1
BV/Sh. (INR)
47
51
55
ABV/Sh. (INR)
43
47
51
ROE (%)
6.0
9.4
10.4
ROA (%)
0.5
0.8
0.8
Payout (%)
29.3
23.2
23.2
Valuations
P/E(X)
27.8
16.8
14.1
P/BV (X)
1.6
1.5
1.4
Quarterly Performance
Net Interest Income
% Change (YoY)
Other Income
Net Income
Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
% Change (YoY)
Other Provisions
Profit before Tax
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
% Change (YoY)
Operating Parameters
NIM (Cal, %)
Deposit Growth (%)
Loan Growth (%)
Asset Quality
Gross NPA (INR b)
Gross NPA (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
6,048
7.2
1,939
7,987
4,315
3,672
4.5
1,531
2,141
727
1,414
-35.8
3.2
16.7
10.1
13.0
2.6
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3982 5521