Ultratech Cement
BSE SENSEX
27,117
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,392
UTCEM IN
Volumes surprise led by market share gains
274.4
Modest volume decline:
UTCEM’s 3QFY17 revenue declined 2% YoY to
965.2 / 14.4
INR55.4b (estimate: INR53.43b). Its gray cement volume declined only 0.6%
4130 / 2680
YoY, led by higher exports (+90% YoY; ramp up of Gujarat unit). PAT grew 7%
9/0/18
1106
YoY to INR5.6b, aided by lower depreciation and lower tax expenses.
37.7
Cost control helps to partially offset weak realizations:
Gray cement
23 January 2017
3QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Cement
CMP: INR3,518
TP: INR4,058(+15%)
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E
Net Sales
238.4 233.7
EBITDA
43.5
45.4
PAT
21.7
25.6
EPS (INR)
79.3
93.5
Gr. (%)
7.9
17.9
BV/Sh (INR)
755.8 837.6
RoE (%)
11.0
11.7
RoCE (%)
9.3
10.1
P/E (x)
44.4
37.6
P/BV (x)
4.7
4.2
2018E
259.4
55.7
35.6
129.6
38.7
949.8
14.5
12.3
27.1
3.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
realization declined 2.5% QoQ to INR4,057/ton due to weak realization in
December. However, UTCEM’s trend of consistent cost improvement
continued, with unitary cost at INR3,832/ton (-2% YoY; flat QoQ).The cost
savings were driven by lower power and fuel cost (better power
consumption) and freight cost (lower lead distance). EBITDA rose 1% YoY to
INR10.4b (our estimate: INR9.6b), translating to EBITDA/ton of INR903 (-
INR89 QoQ; +INR25 YoY) and margin of 18.9% (-1.4pp QoQ; +0.6pp YoY).
Other highlights:
(a) JPA assets operating at 30% utilization; acquisition to
be completed by end-FY17/1QFY18; (b) Capacity expansion of 3.5m tons in
Dhar in MP at cost of USD110/ton likely to be commissioned by 4QFY19; (c)
Capacity utilization at 67% for UTCEM v/s industry utilization of ~60%.
Management commentary:
(1) Demand in South/East markets to remain
buoyant; (2) North likely to see some pressure on volumes due to state
elections; (3) Demand growth in 4Q to be a challenge due to high base; (4)
December realization 4% lower than average of 3QFY17; (5) Impact of power
& fuel cost to the extent of USD5/ton increase in petcoke prices in 4QFY17.
Valuation and view:
Even in challenging times post demonetization,
UTCEM’s strong focus on market share gain and cost efficiency have helped
deliver better than estimated results. It is a strong bet on the cycle upturn,
and in our view, success in asset creation should overshadow any near-term
concerns for long-term investors. We factor in 5-6% volume CAGR and 21%
EBITDA CAGR over FY17-19. We value UTCEM at INR4,058 (EV of 15x FY19E
EBITDA and USD225/ton).
(INR Million)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Abhishek Ghosh
(Abhishek.Ghosh@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Varun Gadia
(Varun.Gadia@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5446