Amara Raja Batteries
BSE SENSEX
27,035
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,349
AMRJ IN
170.8125
158.1 / 2.3
1077 / 776.5
0/3/1
293.9
47.94
23 January 2017
3QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles
CMP: INR902
TP: INR1,087(+20%)
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
46.9
53.8
63.6
Net Sales
8.2
9.1
11.3
EBITDA
4.9
5.3
6.9
NP
28.7
30.9
40.1
EPS (INR)
19.8
7.8
30.0
EPS Gr. (%)
123.0 148.8 182.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
25.8
22.7
24.2
RoE (%)
24.2
21.6
23.1
RoCE (%)
32.0
29.7
22.8
Payout (%)
7.4
6.2
5.0
Div. Yield
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Operating performance in-line; sales grew ~10% YoY; EBITDA margin lowest in
14 quarters due to higher fixed cost; first PAT decline since 3QFY09
Net sales grew 10% YoY (but declined 1% QoQ) to INR13.3b (v/s our estimate
of ~INR12.6b), driven by 16-17% YoY growth in the automotive segment;
industrial segment grew by a modest 2-3% YoY.
EBITDA margin declined 170bp QoQ (and 360bp YoY) to 15.4% (v/s our
estimate of 16.5%) due to higher employee and other expenses, despite in-line
gross margin.
RM cost increased ~80bp QoQ (and 330bp YoY) due to increase in lead prices,
despite increase in prices by 3% in November and 4% in December in the
replacement market.
Fixed cost was higher due to new tubular plant, bonus provisioning for
employees and negative operating leverage. This translated into EBITDA
decline of ~11% YoY/QoQ to INR2.04b (v/s our estimate of INR2.06b).
Adjusted PAT declined 18% YoY/QoQ to INR1.12b (v/s our estimate of
INR1.2b), impacted by higher tax rate.
Takeaways from management interaction:
(a) Impact of demonetization felt in
2W segment, (b) Increased market share in both 2W and 4W replacement
segment, (c) Auto OEM growth in low single digit, implying strong growth in
replacement segment, (d) New tubular plant operated at ~30% utilization (off-
season), (e) Lead prices for 3QFY17 at USD1,950-2,000/ton, which could be over
USD2,150/ton for 4QFY17, (f) Expansion of 4W battery capacity by 2.4m units (to
10.8m) on track for commissioning in 4QFY17, (g) Inventory is slightly higher due
to lower demand in 2W batteries and on account of pre-season buildup of inverter
batteries, (h) Capex for FY17 to be at INR4.5b-5b for 2W and 4W battery capacity,
and (i) Net cash as at the end of December 2016 at INR2.5b.
Valuation and view:
We have cut our EPS estimates by 1.5-2.7% to factor in
stronger than estimated revenue growth and higher costs (RM and fixed costs). The
stock trades at 23.9x/19.9x FY18/19E EPS. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of
~INR1,087 (25x December 2018E EPS).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Aditya Vora
(Aditya.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1533