Hindustan Unilever
BSE SENSEX
27,117
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,392
HUVR IN
Volumes below expectations; cautious outlook
2,164.3
HUVR’s 3QFY17 performance was below expectations.
Net sales declined
1,823.4 / 27.3
0.7% YoY (est. of +1.5%) to INR77.1b, led by underlying volume fall of 4% (est.
954 / 765
of -1%). This was attributable to demonetization, as well as the adverse impact
5/-1/1
on soap volumes from further price increases during the quarter in response to
1186
32.8
the sharp rise in input costs. EBITDA declined 5.2% YoY to INR13.55b (est. of
23 January 2017
3QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR863
TP: INR865(0%)
Neutral
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
305.0 311.3 338.2
Net Sales
57.3
58.5
64.5
EBITDA
41.2
41.7
46.5
PAT
19.0
19.3
21.5
EPS (INR)
12.9
1.1
11.7
Gr. (%)
29.0
28.0
26.9
BV/Sh (INR)
82.4
67.6
78.4
RoE (%)
108.1
88.5 102.0
RoCE (%)
45.3
44.8
40.1
P/E (x)
29.7
30.8
32.1
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
INR13.73b), and adj. PAT fell 10.2% YoY to INR9.2b (7.1% below estimates).
Gross margin contracted 40bp YoY
to 51.4%. Management called out an
increase in material costs going forward, which, in our view, will be difficult to
pass on in a tough volume growth environment. EBITDA margin contraction of
80bp was not as steep as expected (-100bp) due to lower staff costs (-130bp
YoY) and ad spends (-40bp YoY).
Personal care leads sales disappointment:
Personal care revenue declined 3%
YoY. Barring refreshment (+8%), other segments reported flattish growth. All
segments reported YoY EBIT margin decline.
Concall highlights:
(1) Sales for December were better than November, but
were still down YoY. (2) Management is excited about the longer-term
opportunity in the newly launched Ayush range of herbal products in the
popular pricing category across the four southern states in segments like soaps,
shampoos, toothpastes, hand wash conditioners and face wash.
Maintain Neutral:
Rural demand recovery – the key factor for volume revival –
is unclear as of now, particularly after the potential benefits of a near-normal
monsoon were washed away by demonetization. Moreover, until volumes
revive, ongoing material cost inflation will check margin expansion, and EPS
growth will be tepid despite continuing premiumization. Valuations of 36x Dec-
2018 EPS remain fair, in our view. Maintain
Neutral
with a target price of
INR865 (36x Dec-2018 EPS), 10% discount to three-year average multiple.
(INR Million)
FY17
2Q
3Q
-1.0
-4.0
78,427 77,060
1.4
-0.7
39,620 37,446
38,807 39,613
49.5
51.4
24,760 26,059
14,046 13,554
5.1
-5.2
17.9
17.6
945
1,002
49
46
2,528
824
15,580 13,331
4,807
4,482
30.9
33.6
10,818
9,199
10,956 10,379
11.5
6.8
FY16 Ind AS
4QE
-0.5
80,680
4.5
40,626
40,054
49.6
25,487
14,567
-0.9
18.1
1,041
16
1,105
14,616
3,591
24.6
11,025
11,025
(1.0)
5.8
310,610
153,053
157,557
50.7
100,065
57,491
18.5
3,208
153
5,638
59,769
18,096
30.3
41,673
41,673
FY17E
-0.5
317,448
2.2
157,247
160,201
50.5
101,675
58,527
1.8
18.4
3,921
170
5,534
59,970
18,291
30.5
41,679
41,679
0.0
Estimate
Variance
3QE
-1.0
78,804
-2.2%
1.5
39,167
-4.4%
39,637
-0.1%
50.3
25,909
0.6%
13,728
-1.3%
-4.0
17.4
904
45
1,161
13,940
-4.4%
4,043
29.0
9,898
-7.1%
9,898
1.9
Quarterly performance
Y/E March
Vol ume Growth (%)
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
COGS
Gross Profit
Ma rgi n %
Opera ti ng Exp
EBITDA
YoY Cha nge (%)
Ma rgi ns (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
Adjusted PAT
Reported Profit
YoY Cha nge (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
6.0
78,445
38,976
39,469
50.3
24,349
15,120
19.3
749
47
1,230
15,554
4,960
31.9
10,628
10,692
FY16
2Q
3Q
7.0
6.0
77,314 77,640
38,965
38,349
49.6
24,982
13,366
17.3
761
45
1,944
14,503
4,560
31.4
9,902
9,822
37,424
40,216
51.8
25,914
14,302
18.4
822
45
1,451
14,886
4,373
29.4
10,241
9,717
4Q
4.0
77,212
37,688
39,523
51.2
24,820
14,703
19.0
875
16
1,014
14,826
4,203
28.3
11,135
11,135
1Q
4.0
81,282
3.6
39,555
41,727
51.3
25,368
16,359
8.2
20.1
933
60
1,076
16,442
5,411
32.9
11,277
11,739
9.8
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.