Sector Update | 2 February 2017
Logistics
Direct Port Delivery (DPD) – a stiff target
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Please refer our recent Gateway
Distriparks report dated 27-Dec-16
The Customs Department of JNPT has set a stiff target of increasing Direct Port
Delivery’s share to 40% of overall container movement at the port.
The move, if implemented and executed effectively, could hinder volumes growth of
container freight station (CFS) players around JNPT over the medium term, especially
when the port capacity is constrained.
We believe DPD’s share can gradually increase up to 10% over the short term, from 5-
6% now. Scaling DPD volumes beyond 10% would be a tough task.
Part commissioning of JNPT’s fourth terminal should provide some volumes support
for container freight stations around JNPT, in our view.
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JNPT’s Customs Department, as part of its initiative of ease-of-doing business,
has set a stiff target of increasing DPD’s share in overall container trade at the
port to ~40% over the medium term, from ~5-6% currently. The ramp-up of
DPD volumes could potentially be a threat for volumes growth of CFS players
around JNPT, including GDL and All Cargo Logistics.
Under the DPD, the Customs Department has identified about 700 clients which
have cleared the Risk Management System (RMS) and can potentially register
with JNPT Customs to take deliveries by way of DPD. However, our interaction
with channel partners suggests that only ~150 clients have been registered with
JNPT Customs. While the count is likely to increase meaningfully over coming
months, we believe the implementation of DPD could be a challenge.
According to our channel checks, the key hurdles that would come in way of
DPD implementation are:
Ø
A meaningful portion of importers belonging to the trading segment
typically trade the goods when in high sea. This leads to unavailability of
adequate papers required for clearance under DPD. Hence, it has to be
cleared through CFS.
Ø
Additionally, many clients use CFS for inventory management/working
capital management as they save on payment of import duty. Thus, such
companies would be reluctant to shift to DPD as they are better off paying
rental of CFS, as against custom duty on goods in movement.
Ø
The JNPT port does not have adequate area/space to segregate containers
under DPD.
Hence, we believe that DPD share cannot be scaled up beyond 10% swiftly and
that the shift would be very gradual.
According to our channel checks, JNPT’s fourth terminal is likely to be partly
commissioned post monsoon this year, which would result in higher port
volumes in 2HFY18. While a major portion of the terminal would be
operationalized by December 2018, Phase-1 commissioning would act as a
volumes driver for CFS players at JNPT. These additional volumes could offset
volume losses under DPD. Maintain
Buy
on GDL and All Cargo Logistics.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
8 August 2016
1
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Abhishek Ghosh
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@motilaloswal.com@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39804309
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Logistics
Exhibit 1: Out of total imports at JNPT, ~65% of volume has been handled by 29 CFSs
Total Imports (TEUs)
Imports handled at 29 CFSs
% share of 29 CFSs
72%
69% 71% 67% 65%
67% 64% 70% 64% 66% 64%
67%
63% 60%
63% 63%
61% 61%
61% 59% 61%
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Source: Industry, MOSL
Exhibit 2: Out of total exports at JNPT, ~25% of volume has been handled by 29 CFSs
Total Exports (TEUs)
29%
27% 26%
26%
29%
Exports handled at 29 CFSs
% share
29% 30%
28% 27%
26%
25%
23% 22% 22% 23% 23%
23%
23% 24% 24%
21%
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Source: Industry, MOSL
Exhibit 3: DPD service has started at JNPT since Apr-16 (TEUs)
Month
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
JNPCT
1,594
1,867
1,489
1,565
1,948
2,170
2,313
2,039
NSICT
3,056
2,455
1,170
1,481
2,205
1,877
2,088
1,393
GTI
2,198
2,471
2,344
2,452
2,536
2,857
3,022
3,499
Total
6,848
6,793
5,003
5,498
6,689
6,904
7,423
6,931
Source: JNPT, MOSL
Exhibit 4: Allcargo Logistics – volumes to grow in FY18/19
CFS Volume (TEU)
274,344
210,295
212,472
1%
-8%
29%
6%
7%
5%
290,633
YoY (%)
310,900
326,550
Exhibit 5: Gateway Distriparks – volumes to grow in FY18/19
CFS Volume (TEU)
387,138
14%
-1%
-6%
364,842
393,612
YoY (%)
425,600
455,640
340,004
8%
8%
7%
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
2 February 2017
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Logistics
Direct Port Delivery
The Indian government has initiated Direct Port Delivery (DPD) service as part of its
“Ease of Doing Business” program. The move is aimed to enhance India’s access to
the global logistics chain. DPD implementation is expected to lead to significant
savings for importers, in terms of both time and money.
In the past, import containers were sent to container freight stations 1-1.5 days
after arriving by vessel. Following that, depending on the completion of import
procedures and clearances with shipping lines, custom house agents, customs,
consignees and CFS operators, the cargo was delivered to end users after an average
dwell time of 9-10 days. However, with DPD, importers can bypass these through a
streamlined procedure, thereby allowing import containers to be delivered to end
users directly from the port with an average dwell time of only 1.5 days.
2 February 2017
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Logistics
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