Tata Motors
BSE SENSEX
28,241
S&P CNX
8,741
3 February 2017
Update
| Sector:
Automobiles
CMP: INR523
TP: INR775(+46%)
Buy
Creates ‘TAMO’ sub-brand/vertical in the PV business
Another initiative to profitably attain top-3 in India PV industry by 2019
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
TTMT IN
3,395.9
599 / 266
3/1/46
1,776.1
26.3
4,183
65.3
Tata Motors announced its new strategy for the PV business and sub-brand/vertical
TAMO. We see these initiatives as step in right direction and infuse more energy in
TTMT’s PV business by giving autonomy and ring-fencing TAMO vertical to focus on
innovation. This could long way in transforming PV business through agility, adaptability
and making business leaner and meaner. Key highlights:
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E
Net Sales
2,756 2,883
EBITDA
402.4 356.3
NP
125.2
98.5
Adj. EPS (INR)
36.9
29.0
EPS Gr. (%)
-15.5 -21.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
237.9 265.9
RoE (%)
18.3
11.5
RoCE (%)
14.3
8.8
P/E (x)
14.2
18.0
P/BV (x)
2.2
2.0
2018E
3,366
466.9
154.9
45.6
57.3
308.3
15.9
11.9
11.5
1.7
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-16 Jun-16 Sep-15
Promoter
33.0
33.0
33.0
DII
14.5
16.8
17.7
FII
26.1
25.0
40.9
Others
26.4
25.2
8.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Tata Motors
Sensex - Rebased
610
520
430
340
250
‘TAMO’ aspires to be an agile, ring-fenced vertical operating in an incubating
environment towards new technologies, business models and partnerships in
order to define future mobility solutions.
‘TAMO’ as a new, separated vertical will operate in the first step on a low
volume, low investment model to provide fast tracked proves of technologies
and concepts.
The first product developed by TAMO will be premiered at the Geneva Motor
Show in March 2017.
The mindset of people in TAMO will be very different from that of those in Tata
Motors manufacturing cars in large volume. TAMO will have a totally different
eco-system.
Under new PV strategy, TTMT aims to consolidate is platforms from current 6
to 2 over next 2 years, thereby reduce development cost, improve time to
market, derive scale and efficiencies.
Further, it aims to be among the top three domestic PV players with a
sustainable financial performance and exciting innovations by 2019.
TTMT is one of our top-picks in autos. Buy with TP of ~INR775 (FY19 SOTP
based).
TAMO – New vertical to bring in adaptability, agility and start-up culture
TTMT today presented its new PV strategy and introduced its new sub-
brand/vertical – ‘TAMO’.
TAMO aspires to be an agile, ring-fenced vertical operating in an incubating
environment towards new technologies, business models and partnerships in
order to define future mobility solutions.
TAMO as a new, separated vertical will operate in the first step on a low
volume, low investment model to provide fast tracked proves of technologies
and concepts.
These cars sold under the TAMO brand will deliver the proof of concept and if
the response is good, the model or parts of the car or technologies involved or
the manufacturing processes will be absorbed by Tata Motors which will
continue to focus on building high volume products.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Aditya Vora
(Aditya.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1533

Tata Motors
The first product developed by TAMO will be premiered at the Geneva Motor
Show in March 2017.
TAMO will act as an open platform to network with global startups and leading
tech companies, to get access to trends, innovations and solutions, for the
design of exciting future products and services.
TAMO will provide a digital eco-system, which will be leveraged by TTMT to
support the mainstream PV business in the future.
As per TTMT CEO & MD Mr Guenter Butschek “Our game plan addresses six
themes – topline improvement, cost management, structural improvements,
customer centricity, new mobility solutions and organizational effectiveness.
The mindset of people in TAMO will be very different from that of those in Tata
Motors manufacturing cars in large volume. TAMO will have a totally different
eco-system.”
Dr Tim Leverton, President and Head Advanced & Product Engineering on
TAMO: “With TAMO, we are starting a new era. The idea is to find new and agile
ways of innovating and experimenting. We will apply within TAMO also, new
ways of working because leadership is all about time to market.”
Exhibit 1: TAMO new vertical focusing on future mobility solutions
Source: Company, MOSL
New PV Strategy to profitably attain top 3 positions in domestic PV industry
Click here for interesting
video on TTMT’s Advance
Modular Platform
Under new PV strategy, TTMT aims to consolidate is platforms from current 6 to
2 over next 2 years, thereby reduce development cost, improve time to market,
derive scale and efficiencies.
Tata Motors foresees a strong demand growth in the hatchback and the SUV
segments.
Further, it aims to be among the top three domestic PV players with a
sustainable financial performance and exciting innovations by 2019.
Commenting on its new PV strategy, Mr Mayank Pareek, President - PV
Business: “In line with our new PV strategy, our portfolio will include a mix of
brand enhancing products and ones that are well aligned to the rising
aspirations of the different target customer segments. Our new architectural
3 February 2017
2

Tata Motors
approach supports our effort to reduce complexity, enables future technologies
and ensures global relevance.”
Exhibit 2: TTMT’s PV business -6 focus areas
Source: Company, MOSL
Our view – Building blocks falling in place for the PV business turnaround
TTMT’s PV business has been continuous drag on standalone operations. We
estimate PV business EBITDA losses of ~INR12-14b in FY16 (v/s S/A EBITDA of
~INR27.4b). Also, PV business was investing ~INR15-17b annually since last 2
years (which is expected to continue in foreseeable future) in product
development.
After vacuum in new product launches since Nano launch in 2008, TTMT’s PV
business is back on track with exciting product pipeline. Apart from recent
launches of Tiago (hatchback) and Hexa (UV), it plans to launch 2 new products
annually till 2020.
We believe building blocks are falling in place for the PV business turnaround
through a) exciting product pipeline, b) new business strategy based on reducing
complexities and capex intensity of the business and c) improving organizational
structure for more agility and responsiveness.
TTMT’s PV business currently operates at ~30% utilization and has EBITDA
break-even point of 50-55% utilization. Reasonable success to recent launches
and visibility of exciting product pipeline does give us confidence of potential
EBITDA break-even of the PV business. PV business EBITDA break-even could
add 7-8% accretion to our SOTP value.
3 February 2017
3

Tata Motors
Exhibit 3: Launch of new products could boost market share
going forward
TTMT's Dom PV Mkt Sh (%)
17 17 16
15 16
15 15 15 14 14
13
12
8
6
5
6
Exhibit 4: Plan of 2 new launches a year could help TTMT
move up the ranks
Rank in Dom PV Ind. (#)
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
5
FY02
Source: Company, MOSL
FY05
FY08
FY11
FY14
FY17YTD
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 5: TTMT’s aim of being top-3 players could also drive EBITDA break-even utilization
46.8
Volumes ('000 units)
Market share (%)
17.4
8.3
1,305
Maruti Suzuki
484
Hyundai
231
Mahindra
6.9
192
Honda
5.4
149
Tata Motors
4.6
128
Toyota
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 6: Ramp up of new models to take utilization levels closer to break even by FY19
67
50
53
38
24
242
FY10
306
FY11
322
FY12
229
FY13
145
FY14
23
138
FY15
25
27
37
Volumes ('000 units)
Utilization (%)
47
152
FY16E
165
FY17E
225
FY18E
287
FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL
Valuation & view
JLR is well poised to witness sharp recovery driven by a) favorable product
pipeline, b) favorable Fx movement, c) favorable mix, d) favorable operating
leverage and e) improvement in FCF conversion.
On the other hand, India business is interestingly positioned with several levers
to drive turnaround for both PVs and CVs.
Hence, we estimate 70% consol EPS CAGR over FY17-19E (albeit on a low base).
3 February 2017
4

Tata Motors
The stock trades at 11.6x/6.3x FY18E/FY19E consolidated EPS. We maintain Buy
on stock with TP of INR775 (FY19 SOTP based). We value JLR at 3.5x EV/EBITDA
and Indian business at 8x EV/EBITDA.
Exhibit 7: TATA MOTORS: Sum-of-the-parts valuation
INR B
Tata Motors - Standalone
JLR (Adj for R&D capitalization)
JLR - Chery JV EBITDA Share
HV Axles
HV Transmission
Tata Technologies
Tata Daewoo
Total EV
Less: Net Debt (Ex FCCB & TMFL)
Add: Other Investments
Tata Motors Finance
Other Associates/JVs
Tata Sons
Total Equity Value
Fair Value (INR/Sh) - Ord Sh
Upside (%)
Fair Value (INR/Sh) - DVR
Upside (%)
Valuation Parameter
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
Multiple (x)
8.0
3.5
3.5
8.0
8.0
8.0
5.0
FY18E
256
1,047
144
8
6
48
20
1,530
152
37
54
104
1,573
463
-12.7
323
-4.8
FY19E
274
1,695
170
8
6
54
23
2,230
-171
40
85
104
2,630
775
45.9
541
59.4
P/BV
P/BV
20% discount
Fully Diluted
@ 30% discount
1
1
Source: MOSL
3 February 2017
5

Tata Motors
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Total Income
Change (%)
Expenditure
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
EBIT
Product Dev. Exp.
Interest
Other Income
EO Exp/(Inc)
Forex Gain/ (Loss)
PBT
Tax
Effective Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
% of Net Sales
Minority Interest
Share of profit of associate
Net Profit
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
2013
1,888,176
14.0
1,622,487
265,689
14.1
75,693
189,996
20,216
35,533
8,115
876
5,151
136,335
37,710
27.7
98,625
-27.3
5.2
-837
1,138
98,926
99,560
-16.3
2014
2,328,337
23.3
1,954,308
374,029
16.1
110,782
263,248
25,652
47,338
8,286
2,777
7,077
188,690
47,648
25.3
141,042
43.0
6.1
-595
-537
139,910
141,986
42.6
2015
2,631,590
13.0
2,210,452
421,138
16.0
133,886
287,252
28,752
48,615
8,987
930
917
217,026
76,429
35.2
140,597
-0.3
5.3
-868
134
139,863
140,465
-1.1
2016
2,755,611
4.7
2,353,245
402,367
14.6
170,142
232,225
34,804
46,234
9,817
18,794
2,402
139,809
28,726
20.5
111,083
-21.0
4.0
-1,059
213
110,238
125,170
-10.9
2017E
2,883,177
4.6
2,526,874
356,303
12.4
183,581
172,722
37,899
37,695
7,534
-5,013
-7,290
116,965
32,005
27.4
84,960
-23.5
2.9
-976
18,152
102,136
98,495
-21.3
(INR Million)
2018E
3,365,996
16.7
2,899,138
466,857
13.9
222,405
244,452
41,849
38,665
8,566
0
0
172,504
42,321
24.5
130,183
53.2
3.9
-1,094
25,854
154,943
154,943
57.3
2019E
4,074,606
21.1
3,402,000
672,607
16.5
271,683
400,923
46,120
38,638
8,789
0
0
324,955
69,880
21.5
255,075
95.9
6.3
-1,208
31,042
284,909
284,909
83.9
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Curr.Assets
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal.
Loans & Advances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Sundry Creditors
Other Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2013
6,381
369,992
376,373
557,223
-24,094
913,206
1,205,654
570,818
634,836
60,000
41,024
90,577
829,538
209,690
109,427
211,127
280,739
742,769
447,801
134,250
86,769
913,206
2014
6,438
649,597
656,035
549,545
-7,748
1,202,038
1,329,282
688,154
641,128
332,626
49,788
106,867
1,046,103
272,709
105,742
297,118
273,241
974,474
573,157
199,707
71,629
1,202,038
2015
6,438
556,181
562,619
692,115
-13,900
1,245,167
1,582,066
744,241
837,825
286,401
46,970
153,367
1,034,685
292,723
125,792
321,158
256,948
1,114,081
574,073
328,305
-79,396
1,245,167
2016
6,792
801,035
807,827
630,999
4,397
1,452,105
1,891,371
875,469
1,015,902
272,604
48,365
204,661
1,124,179
333,990
129,900
328,800
286,983
1,213,607
636,329
372,083
-89,428
1,452,105
2017E
6,792
896,238
903,030
617,916
4,397
1,535,201
2,392,226
1,059,050
1,333,176
70,000
48,365
222,813
1,085,210
323,864
142,184
281,173
291,983
1,224,363
655,627
347,561
-139,153
1,535,201
(INR Million)
2018E
6,792
1,040,157
1,046,949
599,832
4,397
1,662,130
2,720,226
1,281,455
1,438,770
70,000
48,365
248,667
1,165,838
387,320
165,994
268,034
296,983
1,309,511
737,752
313,545
-143,673
1,662,130
2019E
6,792
1,314,042
1,320,833
581,748
4,397
1,919,139
3,084,226
1,553,138
1,531,087
70,000
48,365
279,709
1,586,330
468,859
200,939
565,542
301,983
1,596,353
893,064
390,716
-10,022
1,919,139
3 February 2017
6

Tata Motors
Financials and Valuations
Ratios (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
EPS Fully Diluted
Normalized EPS ^
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value (Rs/Share)
DPS
Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) %
Valuation (x)
Consolidated P/E
Normalized P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2013
31.2
31.2
11.4
-16.8
54.9
118.0
2.0
7.4
16.8
45.9
7.2
1.0
4.4
0.4
28.3
17.0
30.6
21
41
87
2.1
1.5
2014
44.1
44.1
17.8
41.3
78.5
203.8
2.0
5.3
11.9
29.4
4.9
0.8
2.6
0.4
27.5
19.2
38.7
17
43
90
1.9
0.8
2015
43.6
43.6
14.1
-1.1
85.2
174.8
0.0
0.0
12.0
37.2
4.5
0.7
3.0
0.0
23.1
15.7
39.2
17
41
80
2.1
1.2
2016
36.9
36.9
5.6
-15.5
87.0
237.9
0.2
0.7
14.2
92.9
4.7
0.7
2.2
0.0
18.3
14.3
32.6
17
44
84
1.9
0.8
2017E
29.0
29.0
-4.2
-21.3
83.1
265.9
3.0
12.5
18.0
-124.3
5.3
0.7
2.0
0.6
11.5
8.8
15.6
18
41
83
1.9
0.7
2018E
45.6
45.6
8.3
57.3
111.1
308.3
4.0
10.6
11.5
63.2
4.0
0.6
1.7
0.8
15.9
11.9
18.1
18
42
80
2.0
0.6
2019E
83.9
83.9
41.4
83.9
163.9
388.9
4.0
5.7
6.2
12.6
2.2
0.4
1.3
0.8
24.1
18.0
30.3
18
42
80
2.1
0.4
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Int/Div. Received
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
Other Items
CF from Op Activity
Extra-ordinary Items
CF after EO Items
(Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invest.
CF from Inv Activity
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Beginning Bal.
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
2013
98,926
8,062
75,648
-22,231
-680
64,617
224,343
4,342
228,684
-187,203
-54,984
-242,188
7
45,082
-46,560
-15,087
-16,558
-30,061
153,550
123,488
2014
139,910
6,933
110,736
-43,083
57,744
88,983
361,223
7,221
368,444
-269,252
-36,611
-305,863
1
30,092
-61,706
-7,220
-38,832
23,749
142,531
166,280
2015
139,863
7,777
133,864
-41,940
-36,718
136,570
339,415
20,191
359,606
-315,396
-37,570
-352,966
0
122,288
-63,070
-7,204
52,014
58,655
152,629
211,283
2016
110,238
9,817
131,228
-10,430
17,674
3,154
261,681
-18,794
242,888
-295,509
-51,294
-346,803
135,788
-61,115
-46,234
-818
27,621
-76,294
211,283
134,990
2017E
102,136
7,534
183,581
-32,005
2,098
976
264,321
5,013
269,334
-298,250
-18,152
-316,402
5,344
-13,084
-37,695
-12,276
-57,712
-104,780
134,990
30,210
2018E
154,943
8,566
222,405
-42,321
-8,619
1,094
336,069
0
336,069
-328,000
-25,854
-353,854
5,344
-18,084
-38,665
-16,368
-67,774
-85,559
30,210
-55,349
2019E
284,909
8,789
271,683
-69,880
163,858
1,208
660,568
0
660,568
-364,000
-31,042
-395,042
5,344
-18,084
-38,638
-16,368
-67,746
197,780
-55,349
142,431
3 February 2017
7

Disclosures
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Tata Motors
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
No
Served as an officer, director or employee -
No
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TATA MOTORS
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
3 February 2017
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
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