IndusInd Bank
BSE SENSEX
28,335
S&P CNX
8,768
7 February 2017
Update
| Sector:
Financials
CMP: INR1,326
TP: INR1,535(+16%)
IIB/BHAFIN merger - Win-win for both
Better profitability - strong market share gain
Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg. Val, INR m
Free float (%)
IIB IN
595.8
1336 / 799
10/12/30
631
9.4
1528
85.0
The Economic Times, in its
article
published last week, reported that IndusInd
Bank (IIB) and Bharat Financial Inclusion (BHAFIN) are in talks to explore a merger
opportunity. In this note, we present a short summary of our “what-if’’ analysis on
the possible merger. (Clarification:
IIB
and
BHAFIN).
IIB
(Results
Update 3QFY17)
– synergy benefits plenty
We believe IIB could derive significant synergy benefits from the possible merger
with BHAFIN, including a diversified and granular retail loan book, RoA acceleration
(our estimate of 20bp accretion), a strong PSL book (fee income generation
opportunities via PSLC), cross-sell opportunities, strong knowledge of local economy
and scale benefits. We also note that PPoP to average assets stands at ~7% for
BHAFIN, higher than ~3.5% for IIB. Furthermore, capitalization of BHAFIN is very
high with a tier I ratio of ~36% (leverage of just 3x).
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2016 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
NII
OP
NP
NIM (%)
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoA (%)
P/E (X)
P/BV (X)
45.2
41.4
22.9
4.0
38.4
13.4
291
16.6
1.8
34.5
4.6
60.2
52.4
28.8
4.3
48.4
25.9
333
15.5
1.9
27.4
4.0
71.8
62.8
34.9
4.3
58.7
21.3
383
16.4
1.9
22.6
3.5
BHAFIN
(Results
Update 3QFY17)
– RoEs higher under banking setup; Removes
political risk
In our view, under a banking setup, BHAFIN can generate higher RoEs with a)
elimination of the need to carry excess liquidity (negative carry), which is required
in day-to-day operations and first loss margins for off balance sheet, b) lower cost of
funds (difference of ~400bp between IIB and BHAFIN), c) no cap on lending rates, d)
higher leverage (10x v/s 5x now) and e) removal of political/regulatory overhang
due to the diversified balance sheet. We believe these benefits should more than
compensate for the negative carry of CRR and SLR on the expanded balance sheet.
Granularity of loan book to increase
IIB targets to diversify its retail:corporate loan mix to 50:50 (from 42:58 now).
Within retail, it aims to raise the share of non-vehicle loans to 50% (from 30% as of
now). Additionally, it intends to increase the size of its MFI book from INR30b
currently to ~INR100b. The merger, if successful, will add ~7.5% to IIB’s existing
loans and ~6.5% to the combined balance sheet. Post-merger, the share of retail is
likely to increase to 46-47%. Also, the possible buyout of BHAFIN will bring along a
strong sales force network and supporting technology infrastructure.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-16 Sep-16 Dec-15
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
15.0
12.5
54.0
18.6
14.9
11.6
54.7
18.9
14.9
11.2
53.9
20.0
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
IndusInd Bank
Sensex - Rebased
1,350
1,200
1,050
900
750
Significant synergy benefits, but valuations are key
Assuming that IIB acquires BHAFIN at a 5% premium to CMP (i.e. INR870), the swap
ratio would be 1:1.51 (1 shares of IIB for 1.51 shares of BHAFIN). This would result in
13.2% dilution to equity shareholders of IIB (merged entity). However, given the
strong multiple that IIB trades at, we believe the acquisition will not impact BVPS
significantly (estimated at INR445 – similar to pre-merger levels – in FY19).
Additionally, with the acquisition, RoA is likely to cross 2%, and IIB is likely to enjoy
the highest RoA among peers. Note that we have not built in cost synergies from
the merger – (1) NIM could be better than expected and (2) operating leverage
benefits, which could improve RoA further. Maintain
Buy
on both IIB and BHAFIN.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
Sohail Halai
(Sohail.Halai@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1544