State Bank of India
BSE SENSEX
28,330
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,778
SBIN IN
7,974
2,199.5 / 32.8
289 / 148
6/13/55
5015
38.8
10 February 2017
3QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Financials
CMP: INR276
TP: INR350(+27%)
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
NII
569 596.3 679.2
OP
433 475.0 503.7
NP
100 100.2 137.6
NIM (%)
3.0
2.8
2.8
EPS (INR)
15.7
8.6
21.6
EPS Gr. (%)
-30.8 -45.3 150.9
Cons. BV (INR)
222 229.0 246.6
Cons. ABV (INR)
159 143.4 169.3
RoE (%)
7.6
7.0
9.0
RoA (%)
0.5
0.4
0.5
Cons. P/E (x)
16.9
25.9
10.3
Cons. P/BV (x)
1.2
1.0
0.9
Liability franchise shows its strength; Healthy performance in weak environment
n
PAT of INR26.1b was in line with our estimate, with strong PPoP growth of 31% YoY
to INR125b (6% beat) led by better core income. Key positives in 3QFY17 were: a)
GNPAs flat QoQ; slippages of INR104b largely from corporate portfolio, of which
bulk (73%) were from the already identified watch-list. b) Impressive NIM despite
demonetization (stable QoQ at 2.74%). c) CASA deposits grew 35% YoY, with
robust SA deposit growth of 36%; daily average CASA ratio stood at 42.7%. d) Focus
on granular retail loan growth (18% YoY), led by strong growth in housing (18%)
and auto (20%).
n
Watch-list declined to INR180b from INR259b/INR348b in 1HFY17/FY16. Net
slippages declined 19% QoQ (2.4% net slippage ratio v/s 3.1% in 2Q). Pool of net
stressed loans (NNPL+ OSRL) was INR960.6t (6.6% of loans v/s 6.7% in 2Q). SBIN
utilized the RBI’s dispensation of asset classification on ~INR20b of loans; even
including this, non-corporate slippages were significantly low.
n
Harmonization of accounting policies and asset classification status continued to
mar earnings, leading to 9MFY17 loss of INR59b. We reduce earnings estimate for
the parent by 6% and consolidated earnings by 12% for FY17 (SBIN
subsidiaries
performance).
n
Other highlights:
(a) S/A CET1 ratio stood at ~10%, -31bp QoQ. b) Provisions were
elevated at INR89.4b. (b) Focus on high-quality corporates (79% of new loans rated
A and above v/s 72/50% in 3QFY16/3QFY15) led to continued improvement in
rating profile of the stock (65% rated A and above v/s 61/51% in 3QFY16/3QFY15).
d) Healthy fee income growth of 14.3% YoY.
n
Valuation and view:
We like SBIN for its lowest NSL of 6.7%, PCR of 63%, healthy
capitalization (CET1 of ~10%), strong liability franchise (CASA ratio: 46.5%) and
focus on core operating profitability. Asset quality performance was largely in line.
Although ABs surprised negatively, the worst is expected to be behind. Slippage
ratio is expected to decline in ensuing years. SBIN is highly geared to economic
upcycle and improvement in asset quality. Profitability is likely to be the highest
among peers due to its policy of recognizing stress upfront and lumpy exposures.
Buy
with SOTP-based TP of INR350 (1.1x Dec 18 BV + INR52 for investments).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
Sohail Halai
(Sohail.Halai@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1544