BSE SENSEX
28,893
S&P CNX
8,940
Jindal Steel & Power
CMP: INR117
TP: INR180(+54%)
Buy
New furnace to drive sharp turnaround
Global Ventures’ debt servicing improving; upgrade to Buy
Steel business to drive turnaround
27 February 2017
Update
| Sector:
Metals
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
JSP IN
915
118/52
41/33/84
106.8
1.6
902.9
38.1
Jindal Steel & Power (JSP) is in advanced stages of commissioning a new 3mtpa
furnace, which would increase its total steelmaking capacity in India to 8mpta.
The new blast furnace would correct hot metal mix, reduce operating costs,
and leverage existing infrastructure to drive turnaround of its Angul plant.
Global Ventures (GV) comprises coking coal mines in Australia and
Mozambique, thermal coal mine in South Africa, and a profitable 2mtpa DRI-
EAF route steel plant in Oman.
Rising coking coal prices have led to a turnaround of the mines. With EBITDA
run-rate of ~USD130m, USD2b debt in GV is now serviceable.
3,400MW power capacity is now fully commissioned and capex is behind. We
expect EUP1 (1,000MW) to generate INR40b cash flow on asset sale in FY19.
EUP2 is highly valuable, as it secured 750MW long-term PPAs from Tamil Nadu
and Kerala at attractive gross margin when the market was tight.
The future of EUP3 (1,200MW) and merchant market remains uncertain due to
oversupply. Hence, we are not factoring material cash flows from these.
We expect standalone sales volume to grow at a CAGR of 31% to 5.8mt and
EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 35% to INR52b over FY17-19. Our estimate of
4.5mt for FY18 is conservative relative to JSP’s guidance of 6mt; we have
factored in teething problems during startup of the new furnace. Consolidated
EBITDA would grow at a CAGR of 35% to INR52b over FY17-19.
There is a sharp turnaround in cash profits. Yet, adjusted PAT would be
negative due to bloated depreciation on massive asset revaluation in 1HFY17.
Global Ventures – USD2b debt now serviceable
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017E 2018E
209.1 254.2
Net Sales
44.8
60.9
EBITDA
-21.8
-16.0
PAT
-23.9
-17.5
EPS (INR)
31.1
-26.7
Gr. (%)
395.8 377.9
BV/Sh (INR)
-8.0
-4.5
RoE (%)
0.6
1.8
RoCE (%)
-4.9
-6.7
P/E (x)
0.3
0.3
P/BV (x)
2019E
313.4
78.3
-2.0
-2.2
-87.4
375.2
-0.6
3.7
-52.9
0.3
Attractive 750MW PPAs and EUP1 sale to boost cash flows
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-16 Sep-16 Dec-15
Promoter
61.9
61.9
61.9
DII
1.8
1.8
3.6
FII
17.6
18.2
18.7
Others
18.7
18.1
15.8
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Jindal Steel
Sensex - Rebased
90
80
70
60
50
Sharp turnaround in cash profit, though asset revaluation impacting PAT
Upgrading to Buy, with a target price of INR180
The Angul site can accommodate much larger 12mtpa capacity, which implies
that new capacity addition would require low specific capex, shorter execution
cycle, and deliver superior IRR. The site is strategically located in an over-
supplied iron ore region and is close to ports.
While there are some risks (steel and coking coal prices, slower production
ramp-up) to our estimates, there could be upside if any of several anticipated
events (access to iron ore inventories at Sarda mines, captive iron ore mines in
auction, PPA for idle 1,500MW capacity, etc) play out.
We are raising our target price to INR180 (based on SOTP; earlier INR88 based on
replacement cost) and are upgrading our recommendation to
Buy.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549