BSE SENSEX
29,048
S&P CNX
8,963
Aurobindo Pharma
CMP: INR668
6 March 2017
Update
| Sector:
Healthcare
TP: INR915(+37%)
Buy
Multiple growth drivers ahead; downside risk limited
Product concentration risk lowest amongst peers:
Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP)
recorded ~7% QoQ decline (down ~13% YoY) in the US base business for 3Q,
leading to concerns about the US business growth outlook. We believe this a
one-off event as the company faces least product concentration risk among
peers. No single product for ARBP contributes more than 3% of sales (unlike
SUNP, LPC and DRRD where the top three products account for >20-25% of
sales). Also, no single ANDA has any meaningful disproportionate contribution
to margins as ARBP has a matured product basket, with all of its ~190 launched
ANDAs facing competition from multiple players (typically 4-5 or more).
Commissioning of key plants to drive volume growth in FY18/19E:
Over next
6-9 months, three key formulation plants are getting commissioned, including
Vizag (dedicated supply to EU), Unit XVI (antibiotic injectable plant to supply
products in the US) and Naidupet (oral solids plant to supply to the US).
Supplies from the Vizag plant to Europe will start from Mar-17. This will have a
two-pronged impact: 1) capacity at Unit VII and Unit III will get released (which
are primarily used for supply to the US and are running at capacity utilization of
~80%) and 2) European business margins should expand (to ~7-8% in FY18E
from ~5% currently) as the company plans to manufacture 50% of its products
sold in EU at this plant. Naidupet plant will get commissioned by mid-FY18 and
will be one of the largest formulation plants for ARBP (capacity of 7-8b tablets).
Strong launch pipeline coupled with volume push to drive growth:
ARBP
received 49 and 47 ANDA approvals in FY16 and 9MFY17, respectively (highest
in the industry). We expect this strong approval and launch momentum to
continue on the back of ~159 pending ANDAs. We expect ARBP to deliver mid-
teens growth in the US, led by its strong launch pipeline in injectables (~40
pending ANDAs), steady mid-teens growth in Natrol and huge capacity
expansion in orals and injectables (which will lead to volume push in existing
and new products). We expect US sales to pick up over the coming quarters,
led by key launches like Epzicom, Meropenem. Tenofovir, Toprol XL and
Fortamet Solu-Medrol. Apart from this, ARBP has an approved pipeline of ~50
products (~13 OTCs, 5-6 OTCs, 6 injectables, rest orals including Vancomycin)
which will be launched by 2QFY18.
EU and ARV business can surprise positively in FY18/19:
The manufacturing of
~60 products has been shifted to India (to Unit VII & III). Given that supply from
Vizag to EU markets will start from Mar-17, the company plans to shift
manufacturing of ~114 products from Vizag (sales value of >USD200m) over
next 12-18 months. This will lead to significant cost savings. We expect EBITDA
margin of this business to expand from ~5% to ~7-8% in FY18E and low-double-
digits in FY19E. ARV business growth in FY19 will be driven by the pick-up of
DTG triple combination approval (USD500m market).
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
ARBP IN
585
895 / 622
-5/-14/-22
390.8
5.9
1663
48.1
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
152.9 181.0
Net Sales
36.4
43.1
EBITDA
23.7
27.5
PAT
40.5
47.0
EPS (INR)
19.7
15.9
Gr. (%)
158.6 203.1
BV/Sh (INR)
29.0
26.0
RoE (%)
19.9
19.9
RoCE (%)
16.5
14.2
P/E (x)
4.2
3.3
P/BV (x)
2019E
205.6
49.3
32.0
54.6
16.3
255.2
23.8
19.5
12.2
2.6
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-16 Sep-16 Dec-15
Promoter
51.9
53.8
53.9
DII
11.0
7.7
6.5
FII
24.1
26.7
28.8
Others
13.0
11.8
10.9
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Aurobindo Pharma
Sensex - Rebased
900
800
700
600
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Tushar Manudhane
(Tushar.Manudhane@motilaloswal.com); +91 022 3010 2498