Power monthly
Generation up 3.5% YoY in
February
Sector Update | Utilities
Sector: Utilities - Power
February 2017: daily avg. generation up 3.5% YoY
Quarter of incremental power demand met by RE in 10mFY17
Conventional daily avg. generation up 3.5% YoY in February (+4.6% YTD)
Conventional daily avg. power generation increased by 3.5% YoY in February
2016.
Generation growth was largely similar at ~3-4% YoY across central, state and
private sector plants. Overall coal based generation growth of 3.4% YoY was also
similar to the broader trend.
NTPC standalone’s coal-based generation was flat YoY (leap year adjusted) in
February. PLF for its coal-based plants was down 180bps YoY to 80%.
Generation increased 4.6% YoY to 1,052bkwh in 11mFY17.
RE generation grew 32% YoY in January (latest reported). Wind and Solar
generation was double YoY. RE generation is up ~27% YoY in 10mFY17.
Share of RE has increased to 6.8% for 10mFY17 against 5.7% last year. As share
of incremental generation RE represented a significant ~24% in 10mFY17.
Including RE all-India generation grew 6.3% YoY in 10mFY17.
There was 1.1GW capacity added in January. Six units of Teesta-III (1,000MW)
were commissioned. Capacity addition stood at 7.3GW (v/s 12.9GW same
period last year) in 10mFY17.
All-India PLF of conventional capacities declined by 125bp YoY to 50% in
February and by 55bp YoY to 50% in 11mFY17.
PLF of coal-based power plants was down 226bp YoY to 60% in February and
261bp YoY to 60% in 11mFY17.
In January, southern region consumption growth was the highest at ~8% led by
growth in Karnataka, AP and Telangana. UP also reported strong growth of
~16%.
In 10mFY17, UP (+13%), Karnataka (+11%) and TN (+11%) have reported the
highest growth.
Wind and Solar generation doubles YoY in January; RE share increasing
1.1GW capacity added in January, PLFs down 125bps YoY
Strong growth in consumption in southern regions in January
IEX: rates uptick marginally MoM; volume growth moderates
IEX all-India rates were up ~2% MoM to INR2.5/kWh, following ~8% MoM
increase in January. IEX volumes were up ~8% YoY (leap year adjusted).
JSW Energy: Vijaynagar PLF was up MoM to 78% in February, on back of 650MW
PPA with Karnataka. Ratnagiri’s PLF remains low at ~33% on shutdown.
CESC: Dhariwal’s PLF was at ~30%, largely unchanged MoM.
Rattan India: Plant is effectively shut for last eight months.
Merchant plants: JSW Vijaynagar’s PLF improves
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
8 March 2017
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.