Power monthly
Generation up 3.5% YoY in
February
Sector Update | Utilities
Sector: Utilities - Power
February 2017: daily avg. generation up 3.5% YoY
Quarter of incremental power demand met by RE in 10mFY17
Conventional daily avg. generation up 3.5% YoY in February (+4.6% YTD)
Conventional daily avg. power generation increased by 3.5% YoY in February
2016.
Generation growth was largely similar at ~3-4% YoY across central, state and
private sector plants. Overall coal based generation growth of 3.4% YoY was also
similar to the broader trend.
NTPC standalone’s coal-based generation was flat YoY (leap year adjusted) in
February. PLF for its coal-based plants was down 180bps YoY to 80%.
Generation increased 4.6% YoY to 1,052bkwh in 11mFY17.
RE generation grew 32% YoY in January (latest reported). Wind and Solar
generation was double YoY. RE generation is up ~27% YoY in 10mFY17.
Share of RE has increased to 6.8% for 10mFY17 against 5.7% last year. As share
of incremental generation RE represented a significant ~24% in 10mFY17.
Including RE all-India generation grew 6.3% YoY in 10mFY17.
There was 1.1GW capacity added in January. Six units of Teesta-III (1,000MW)
were commissioned. Capacity addition stood at 7.3GW (v/s 12.9GW same
period last year) in 10mFY17.
All-India PLF of conventional capacities declined by 125bp YoY to 50% in
February and by 55bp YoY to 50% in 11mFY17.
PLF of coal-based power plants was down 226bp YoY to 60% in February and
261bp YoY to 60% in 11mFY17.
In January, southern region consumption growth was the highest at ~8% led by
growth in Karnataka, AP and Telangana. UP also reported strong growth of
~16%.
In 10mFY17, UP (+13%), Karnataka (+11%) and TN (+11%) have reported the
highest growth.
Wind and Solar generation doubles YoY in January; RE share increasing
1.1GW capacity added in January, PLFs down 125bps YoY
Strong growth in consumption in southern regions in January
IEX: rates uptick marginally MoM; volume growth moderates
IEX all-India rates were up ~2% MoM to INR2.5/kWh, following ~8% MoM
increase in January. IEX volumes were up ~8% YoY (leap year adjusted).
JSW Energy: Vijaynagar PLF was up MoM to 78% in February, on back of 650MW
PPA with Karnataka. Ratnagiri’s PLF remains low at ~33% on shutdown.
CESC: Dhariwal’s PLF was at ~30%, largely unchanged MoM.
Rattan India: Plant is effectively shut for last eight months.
Merchant plants: JSW Vijaynagar’s PLF improves
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
8 March 2017
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Sector: Utilities - Power
Generation in February 2017
Daily avg. generation grew 3.5%; Coal based generation also grew at a similar rate
Conventional daily avg.
electricity generation
increased by 3.5% YoY in
February
Exhibit 1: All-India conventional electricity generation
Conventional generation - BU
change yoy - %
13
4
6
0
5
7
16
14
12 12 1213 10
686 5 7
536
4
2
1
12
6
-1
1
4
6
9
1
3
15
12
10
8
7
5
9
2021
6
4
0
Source: MOSL, CEA
Coal based generation,
adjusted for leap year, grew
by 3.4% YoY in February.
System PLF was down
125bps YoY to 50%. Coal-
based plants PLF was down
226bps YoY to 60%.
Exhibit 2: Conventional electricity generation by fuel source
Monthly
Feb-17
YoY %
Thermal
Generation
PLF
Capacity
Coal
Generation
PLF
Capacity
Lignite
Generation
PLF
Capacity
Gas
Generation
PLF
Capacity
Others
Generation
Capacity
Hydro
Generation
PLF
Capacity
Nuclear
Generation
PLF
Capacity
All India (conventional)
Generation
PLF
Capacity
MU
%
MW
MU
%
MW
MU
%
MW
MU
%
MW
MU
MW
MU
%
MW
MU
%
MW
MU
%
MW
79,455
55
-0.5
-196bps
Feb-16
857,902
62
201,119
784,042
62
169,752
30,979
67
5,860
42,523
22
24,454
358
994
114,392
33
42,721
33,826
73
5,780
1,006,120
50
249,621
Year to date
Feb-17
YTD YoY %
903,694
60
214,545
826,904
60
182,182
31,866
67
6,110
44,883
23
25,275
232
979
114,330
32
44,413
34,136
74
5,780
1,052,160
50
264,739
5.3
6.7
5.5
7.3
2.9
4.3
5.6
3.4
-35.2
-1.5
-0.1
4.0
0.9
0.0
4.6
6.1
Source: CEA
72,928
60
-0.2
-226bps
2,885
70
0.4
-607bps
3,634
21
-7.8
-177bps
8
979
6,601
22
-71.6
-1.5
8.4
164bps
2,839
73
-5.3
-145bps
88,895
50
-0.1
-125bps
8 March 2017
2

Sector: Utilities - Power
Exhibit 3: Conventional electricity generation by ownership - MU
Monthly
Feb-17
YoY %
32,289
-0.5
26,722
-0.9
23,304
-2.1
1,605
5.5
1,813
10.7
2,728
10.3
2,839
-5.3
27,115
0.1
23,585
-0.8
22,217
-0.5
1,159
0.2
209
-28.7
3,530
7.2
29,492
0.1
29,149
0.0
27,407
1.9
871
-31.2
870
-10.2
343
6.7
88,895
-0.1
18,694
-3.9
33.2
6bps
Year to date
Feb-17
YTD YoY %
395,010
5.7
306,078
6.9
269,081
5.8
18,043
22.6
18,954
9.5
54,819
2.1
34,113
0.8
319,218
1.1
272,449
2.3
256,014
2.6
13,525
0.7
2,910
-12.2
46,769
-5.6
337,811
6.8
325,116
6.5
301,746
7.6
13,338
-7.2
10,032
-3.1
12,695
13.8
1,052,039
4.6
215,704
3.0
32.1
66bps
Source: CEA
.
Private sector daily avg.
coal-based generation grew
by ~5% YoY in February.
NTPC S/A coal daily avg.
generation was broadly flat
YoY.
Central
Thermal
Coal
Gas
Other
Hydro
Nuclear
State
Thermal
Coal
Gas
Other
Hydro
Private
Thermal
Coal
Gas
Other
Hydro
Total
NTPC coal (s/a)
Private share %
A quarter of incremental
generation demand in
10mFY17 was met by RE.
Exhibit 4: All-India generation (Conventional + RE)
Jan-16
96,427
4,377
1,056
545
2,775
92,051
4.5
Monthly
Jan-17
YoY %
101,374
5.1
5,789
32.3
2,308
118.5
1,188
117.7
2,293
-17.4
95,586
3.8
5.7
117bps
28.5
Jan-16
972,659
55,519
29,487
5,727
20,305
917,140
5.7
Year to date
Jan-17
1,033,673
70,408
41,160
10,566
18,683
963,265
6.8
24.4
YTD YoY %
6.3
26.8
39.6
84.5
-8.0
5.0
110bps
All-India
RE
Wind
Solar
Others
Conventional
RE share %
RE incr. share %
Source: MOSL, Company
Capacity addition: Just 7.3GW in 10mFY17
Exhibit 5: Capacity addition as monitored by CEA
Month
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Jan-17
Jan-17
Promoter
Sembcorp Gayatri
Others
Others
Singareni Collieries
NTPC
MAHAGENCO
WBPDCL
Namrup
Sikkim
NagarJuna Sagar
Plant
NCC
Ratija
Kashipur
Singareni TPP
Kudgi
Koradi
Sagardighi
Namrup
Teesta-III
NagarJuna Sagar
Unit
U-1
U-2
U-1
U-2
U-1
U-10
U-4
U-1
U1-6
U1-2
Type
Thermal
Thermal
Thermal
Thermal
Thermal
Thermal
Thermal
Thermal
Hydro
Hydro
Capacity MW
660
50
225
600
800
660
500
62
1,000
50
Location (State)
Andhra Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Uttarakhand
Telangana
Karnataka
Maharashtra
West Bengal
Others
Sikkim
Telangana
Source: MOSL, Company
8 March 2017
3

Sector: Utilities - Power
Demand by states – January 2017
Strong demand growth continues in Southern regions
Exhibit 6: Electricity demand by states
Chandigarh
Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Northern Region
Chhattisgarh
Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Daman and Diu
Dadra and Nagar Haveli
Goa
Western Region
Andhra Pradesh
Telangana
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil nadu
Puducherry
Lakshadweep
Southern Region
Bihar
DVC
Jharkhand
Odisha
West Bengal
Sikkim
Andaman And Nicobar
Eastern region
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Manipur
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Nagaland
Tripura
North Eastern Region
All India
Jan-17
113
1,935
3,449
770
1,284
3,001
6,073
8,610
1,077
26,312
1,809
8,495
6,306
10,983
195
500
317
28,605
4,557
4,831
6,078
1,967
7,883
183
4
25,503
1,961
1,604
674
2,092
3,458
54
15
9,858
64
709
71
151
48
65
104
1,212
91,490
YoY %
-2.6
-1.5
-5.4
0.3
-4.9
-2.3
-6.2
16.6
-2.5
1.7
-10.6
0.7
-0.8
-2.4
-1.5
-0.2
-27.0
-2.1
10.6
19.9
10.6
1.9
0.0
-3.2
0.0
7.8
-8.1
8.7
2.0
0.9
-0.5
38.5
0.0
-0.1
6.7
6.0
-9.0
-9.6
6.7
0.0
100.0
6.7
1.9
Jan-17
1,448
27,121
42,072
7,344
11,699
46,732
56,210
89,030
10,959
292,615
19,357
86,310
55,000
115,628
2,003
5,060
3,785
287,143
44,902
42,887
54,368
20,068
87,269
2,131
40
251,665
21,400
15,351
6,608
22,305
40,808
389
150
107,011
586
7,502
607
1,406
412
625
1,229
12,367
950,801
YTD YoY %
3.1
4.8
3.2
0.4
1.2
6.8
0.9
13.1
2.6
6.1
-7.9
0.0
8.5
-1.2
3.1
3.0
-11.6
0.3
8.9
4.0
10.4
6.0
10.7
6.0
0.0
8.7
8.2
0.0
4.9
0.9
3.9
20.4
0.0
3.6
24.2
7.4
-9.8
-1.4
10.5
1.1
30.9
7.7
4.7
Source: MOSL, CEA
8 March 2017
4

Sector: Utilities - Power
PLFs and incentives
JSW’s Vijaynagar PLF improves; Rattan India continues to struggle
Exhibit 7: PLFs (%) for private power plants with exposure to merchant market
MW Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16
Adani Power
11,040
Avantha
600
84
84
67
76
67
3
0
76
5
66
62
Mundra
4,620
80
83
71
73
79
79
69
85
65
41
26
Tirora
3,300
78
79
75
34
16
61
51
75
81
74
59
CESC
2,485
Dhariwal
600
24
26
34
31
26
25
28
32
29
34
24
JSW Energy
4,440
Karcham
1,000
15
16
22
75
108
106
98
73
34
21
16
Ratnagiri
1,200
87
93
87
94
69
70
72
69
71
67
39
Vijaynagar
860
100
101
100
90
32
20
27
46
50
61
49
Jindal Power
3,400
Tamnar 1
2,400
63
63
65
45
42
47
49
30
56
50
51
Tamnar 2
1,000
26
26
29
22
31
30
29
57
30
31
30
JP Power
4,200
Bina
500
68
1
0
2
0
0
0
15
5
48
58
Nigri
1,320
49
41
74
73
79
50
64
77
72
62
42
KSK
2,940
Akaltara
2,400
71
87
85
60
69
57
71
62
37
45
44
Wardha
540
35
30
35
22
30
25
34
31
32
31
30
Torrent Power
3,252
Sugen
1,148
52
43
49
63
70
59
55
62
57
42
70
Unosugen
383
44
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
35
DGEN
1,200
0
36
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Essar
1,200
Mahan
600
0
0
1
55
48
63
29
38
47
62
70
Salaya
600
56
7
60
69
64
50
42
51
52
38
40
Rattan India
1,350
Amravati
1,350
59
59
50
42
51
0
0
7
5
19
0
Vedanta
4,980
Sterlite
2,400
41
39
42
30
42
34
40
32
47
46
55
Balco
600
90
79
76
51
60
59
53
50
30
69
67
South plants
3,260
Powertech
1,320
78
92
55
66
87
82
89
69
81
91
72
Meenakshi
300
64
72
94
49
85
51
58
42
38
40
36
Simhapuri
600
63
66
84
82
29
27
33
28
34
20
17
Hinduja
1,040
67
0
0
25
47
62
68
27
36
34
36
Green represents positive change YoY while Red represents a negative change YoY
Jan-17 Feb-17
70
63
80
31
14
32
63
46
31
20
65
68
29
90
22
0
71
54
0
35
69
88
75
86
28
14
33
78
46
31
41
60
81
31
79
26
0
49
59
0
22
75
62
91
34
31
3
0
36
55
Source: CEA
Low PLFs are likely to hurt
NTPC’s PLF incentive
income.
Exhibit 8: NTPC PLF incentive if they were to be calculated station wise – INR m
NTPC standalone implied PLF incentive - INR m
2,082
1,480
644
-107
Note: Actual incentives will be higher because they are calculated Unit wise.
Source: CEA
8 March 2017
5

Sector: Utilities - Power
Short-term power market
Marginal uptick in prices; Volumes support led by South
Adjusted for leap year,
volumes were up ~8% YoY
in February.
Exhibit 9: IEX cleared volumes and growth yoy
Cleared vols. - BU
change yoy - %
1510
24
1
-6
-17
2 7
0
-10 -7
-11 -14
6
0
1823
-6
9 11
26
16
28
37
25
393541
1
29
42
24
1411
25
4 10 4
Source: MOSL, IEX
Southern region continues
to drive growth, through
the momentum is slowing.
Exhibit 10: IEX southern region cleared volumes and growth yoy
South vols. - MU
800
600
45 33
400
-13
-22 6
-47 -56 -42 -40
-62 -34
-66
200
204
90
119
69 45 83
39
9
39
2 -7
-39
-48
change yoy - %
230
196
162
112
91
62
33 24 31 15 37
17
14
0
Source: MOSL, IEX
System average prices were
up ~2% MoM in February,
followed by ~8% increase
MoM in January.
Exhibit 11: IEX prices – INR/kWh
7.50
5.50
3.50
1.50
W1
S1
Source: MOSL, IEX
Inter-region transmission
volumes were up 9% YoY in
January 2017.
Exhibit 12: Inter-region transmission volumes – MU
WR-NR
WR-SR
Others
13 12 12 12
7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 7
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1
3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5
1
5
9 8 8 9
7 8
6
12 11
11
10 10 11 11
10 10 10 11 11 11
Source: MOSL, IEX
8 March 2017
6

Sector: Utilities - Power
Annexures
Exhibit 13: Transmission lines commissioned by Power Grid
Month
Apr-16
Apr-16
Apr-16
Apr-16
Apr-16
May-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Aug-16
Aug-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Jan-17
Jan-17
Line
LILO of Gaya - Varanasi line
LILO of Kadapa (Cuddapah) - Kolar at N.P. Kunta
LILO of Pune - Aurangabad at pune (GIS)
Lara STPS- Raigarh (Kotra) line
Panchkula- Patiala
LILO of Meerut - Kaithal at Baghpat (Ckt-II)
Roorkee - Saharanpur line (Quad) (Ckt-I)
Kanpur - Jhatikara
Varanasi- Kanpur
Jharkhand Pool (Chandwa)-Gaya (Quad) line
Kanpur - (new)- Kanpur (exit)
Baripada- Mendhasal at Pindiabil
Ranchi - Jharkhand Pool Line (Chandwa)
Roorkee- Saharanpur line (Ckt-II)
LILO OF GLADNI- Hiranagar at Sambha
LILO - IN Teesta- III- kishanganj at Rangoo
Line for swapping of Purnea bay with Sasaram bay at Biharshariff
Betul - khandwa (Quad) line
Khanwada - Indore line
Meja- Allahabad line
Sasaram-Allahbad line
Champa Pooling Station- Kurukshetra (HVDC) BIOPOLE Line
Jaipur (RVPNL) - Bhiwani (Iind Ckt) line
Srikakulam PP- Vemagiri- II Pooling Station (Vizag TL)
Essar Gujarat TPS - Bachau (Tripal)
LILO of one RAPP - Kankorli at Chittorgarh
Unchahar - Fatehpur line (Powergird Unchahar TL)
Nagapattinam Pooling Station - Salem (NMTCL)
Varanasi- Sarnath (Q)
Tuticorin Pooling Station- Salem Pooling Station
Srikakulam Pooling Station - Angul line
LILO of Gazuwaka- Vijaywada 400kv S/C line at vemagiri PS
Navsari -Boisor line (Balance portion)
LILO of existing Seoni -Bina at Gadawara STPP
Dehradun-Bagpat line(Q)
Sikar-Jaipur line
Voltage
765
400
400
400
400
400
400
765
765
765
400
400
400
400
220
400
400
400
400
400
400
800
765
765
400
400
400
765
400
765
765
400
400
765
400
400
Type
S/C
D/C
2XD/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
S/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
2xD/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
MC+D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
BIOPOLE
S/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
D/C
Length
273
21
58
36
131
61
37
466
652
234
41
112
138
37
28
21
10
338
344
56
6
2574
277
668
446
28
107
406
213
731
552
38
161
16
330
339
Source: MOSL, Company
8 March 2017
7

Sector: Utilities - Power
Exhibit 14: Substations commissioned by Power Grid
Month
Apr-16
Apr-16
May-16
May-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Jul-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Jan-17
Jan-17
Substation
Mandola S/s (Aug.) ICT-II(Replacing 315 MVA with 500 MVA ICT
N.P. Kunta Pooling Station S/S (ICT-I)
Balipara (2nd Ckt)
Mandola S/s (Aug.) ICT-III (Replacement of 315 MVA by 500 MVA)
Saharanpur S/S
Pune (GIS) S/S
Bagpat (ICT-II) S/S
Julandhar (Extn.)
Pandiabil S/S (ICT-I & II)
Karupur (GIS) S/S
Jharkhand Pool (Chandwa) Switching GIS
N.P. Kunta Pooling Station S/S (ICT-II)
Biswanath Chariyali & Agra HVDC terminal (Pole-II)
Somanahalli S/S
Champa Pooling Station (ICT-III &IV)
Ballabhgarh s/s (Replacement of ICT-I & ICT-II)
Baraipada (Addl.)
Extn. At Mysore S/S
Kishanganj S/S (ICT-II)
Maithon S/S (Replacement of ICT-I) (500-315)
Patna (Replacement of ICT-I) (500-315)
Purnea S/S (Replacement of ICT-II) (300-315)
Mondala s/s (Aug) ICT -IV (replacing 315 MVA with 500 ICT)
Samba ( Extn.) S/S
Extn at 400/220 KV Damoh S/S
Champa Pooling Station (ICT-V &VI)
Extn. At Madurai s/s
Vemagiri Pooling Station (ICT-1)
Dehar s/s (Replacement)
Dehradun
Type
Capacity
400/220
185
400/220
500
400/220
315
400/220
185
400/220
630
765/400
3,000
400/220
500
400/220
1,000
400/220
1,000
765/400
3,000
400
0
400/220
1,000
800
1,500
400/200
500
765/400
3,000
400/220
370
400/220
500
400/220
500
400/220/33
500
400/220
185
400/220
185
400/220
185
400/220
185
400/220
315
400/220
500
765/400
3,000
400/220
500
765/400
630
400/220
1,500
400/220
65
Source: MOSL, Company
8 March 2017
8

Sector: Utilities - Power
NOTES
8 March 2017
9

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Utilities - Power
its
Sector:
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