7 April 2017
Update
| Sector:
Financials
Yes Bank
Buy
BSE SENSEX
29,707
S&P CNX
9,198
CMP: INR1,565
TP: INR2,110 (+35%)
Re-rating led by diversification and balance sheet granularity
Robust capitalization | 2x+ system growth | Best-in-class return ratios
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
YES IN
453.8
1570 / 827
5/16/66
704.8
10.3
3855
78.2
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2017E 2018E 2019E
NII
58.6
76.3
96.3
OP
56.3
73.3
92.2
NP
33.3
43.4
54.6
NIM (%)
3.6
3.8
3.8
EPS (INR)
73.5
95.7 120.3
EPS Gr. (%)
21.6
30.3
25.7
BV/Sh. (INR)
469.3 545.5 641.2
ABV/Sh. (INR)
463.6 539.3 632.1
RoE (%)
19.0
18.9
20.3
RoA (%)
1.8
1.9
2.0
P/E(X)
21.3
16.4
13.0
P/BV (X)
3.3
2.9
2.4
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-16 Sep-16 Dec-15
Promoter
21.8
21.9
22.0
DII
23.8
23.1
23.6
FII
42.0
42.6
41.4
Others
12.4
12.4
13.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Yes Bank
Sensex - Rebased
1,600
1,350
1,100
850
600
The recent capital raise of INR49b (30% of December 2016 net worth) has added
~300bp to Yes Bank’s (YES) CET1 ratio (~13%). With an incremental market share of
3.5%+, aggressive roll-out of retail/SME products and strong corporate relationships,
YES is expected to register loan CAGR (FY17-20) of 28% – at least 2x of system loan
growth.
YES has increased its branch strength at a 32% CAGR and SA deposits at a 90% CAGR
over FY11-16. The CASA ratio increased from just 11% in FY11 to 33% in 9MFY17. The
2020 CASA target of 40% could be achieved a year in advance, led by YES’ strong
branch expansion plans (2.5x in three years) and roll out of a complete product suite
for corporate/retail customers.
YES has maintained pristine asset quality (GNPLs less than 1%) in a challenging
environment, despite clocking strong loan growth. This speaks well for its credit
appraisal systems, given that the bank has achieved loan/PAT CAGR of 23/28% over
FY11-16.
Robust loan growth, NIM expansion (~20bp led by higher CASA and share of retail
loans) and rising fee income contribution are expected to drive a 27% PAT CAGR
through FY20. This will see RoA improving to ~2% (v/s 1.8% currently) and RoE being
maintained at 20%+.
YES is available at ~30% discount to private banks like HDFCB, IIB and KMB. Robust
BV CAGR of 23% (highest in the system), superior RoEs, strong asset quality and
increased balance sheet granularity (higher share of retail loans + CASA roll out)
should drive a re-rating, in our view. We expect YES to bridge the valuation gap v/s
peers, and thus, reiterate Buy with a target price of INR2,110 (3.3x FY19 BV).
Poised to leverage on investments in franchise, people and technology
YES’ strategy of targeting cash-rich regions (45% of branches concentrated in ~20
districts accounting for 56% of India’s deposit market share) has yielded rich
dividends, with 90% SA deposit CAGR over FY11-16. Continued strong branch
expansion plans (2.5x increase to 2,500 by FY20), increasing ‘feet on street’ and a
more complete product offering are expected to create higher presence and brand
visibility, enabling the bank to fast-track on its retail promise. We believe the CASA
target of 40% could even be achieved by 2019 (v/s its stated objective of 2020).
Full steam ahead on retail – the only missing piece
YES is expected to transform from a largely corporate lending bank to a well-
diversified private sector bank over next five years, with the proportion of branch
banking and retail assets increasing to 45% by FY20 from 31% currently.
Technological differentiation and ability to raise its cross-sell capabilities will be the
key catalysts. With incremental market share of 3.5%+, low-hanging fruits in
retail/SME business and strong corporate relationships, we expect YES to register
28% loan CAGR over FY17-20.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
Subham Banka
(Subham.Banka@MotilalOswal.com); +91 022 6129 1567