Commodities Daily
Thursday, April 20, 2017
Overview
•
Asian markets mixed
•
Japan’s trade data better-than-forecast
•
UK lawmakers vote 522-13 to back June 8 snap
election
•
French elections becoming a four-way fight
Close
Precious metals
Gold
Silver
Energy
WTI Crude oil
Brent Crude
Natural gas
Base metals – LME
COMEX Copper
Copper
Aluminium
Nickel
Lead
Zinc
Others
DXY
US 10yr
CBOE VIX
%Chg.
-0.8%
-1.0%
-3.6%
1.0%
1.2%
-0.6%
-0.4%
0.0%
-0.1%
-1.1%
-1.0%
0.2%
0.3%
1.7%
1278.91
18.08
50.44
53.35
3.197
343.5
5570
1912.5
9380
2136.5
2543
99.738
2.2089
14.91
Precious Metals
Precious metals are flattish at the open after yet
another choppy session yesterday. The Fed’s beige
book suggested that US economic activity continues
to grow at a modest-to-moderate rate across the
nation. The report also suggested that the labor
market continues to tighten as employers quoted
increasing turnover rates. Gold prices may however
find support owing to nervousness ahead of the
French election which have become a four-way fight.
Opinion polls show far-right leader Marine Le Pen
and centrist Emmanuel Macron will qualify for the
second round on May 7. Over the past few days, geo-
political concerns have also increased after the US
warning to North Korea.
Consequently, rate hike
p
robabilities have dropped in all remaining FOMC
meetings this year. Pricewise, we believe that
precious metals may continue to remain choppy even
as the trend remains bullish.
Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report
Page 1

Commodities Daily
Base Metals
Metals traded mixed, on some profit booking of the
previous day fall. Copper is trading at its lowest for the
year after China's refined production surged in March,
underlining ample stocks in China.
China's refined copper output rose 8.5% in March
from a year ago to 764,000 tonnes, its highest since at
least December 2015, while aluminium and iron ore
output levels were the lowest in months. Freeport
McMoRan Inc received preliminary approval to
resume copper concentrate exports from its Indonesia
mine and hopes to apply for an export permit this
week.
The global market for refined nickel deepened its
deficit to 4,400 tonnes in February from a deficit of
1,100 tonnes in January, data from the International
Nickel Study Group showed.
Speculative
Longs
Gold
Silver
Copper
Crude oil
Nat gas
EUR/USD
DXY
Change WoW
140407
98845
55512
309229
176502
-18956
44335
24802
5162
1339
42199
585
7551
1376
INVENTORIES
Energy
Crude oil
Gasoline
Distillate
Natural gas
Base Metals
LME
Aluminium
SHFE
w/w
LME
Copper
SHFE
w/w
LME
Nickel
SHFE
w/w
LME
Lead
SHFE
w/w
LME
Zinc
SHFE
w/w
Precious metals
GOLD ETF
Silver ETF
Current
W/W Chg. Units
532.34
237.67
148.27
2.06
1713250
345942
267475
271267
374952
73128
168175
72662
357525
165398
1716
19286
-1.03
1.54
-1.96
0.01
-32500
5981
12050
-43543
5598
-812
-650
212
-1625
-16846
-0.20
-29.26
MBbl
MBbl
MBbl
BCF
Energy
Oil is expected to remain weak after a sharp selloff
yesterday which resulted in WTI falling close to $50 at
one point. The EIA inventory data from US was not
supportive as it showed smaller than expected drop of
1 million barrels in stockpiles last week. Surprisingly,
gasoline stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels and US
oil production inched up for a ninth straight week
which led to the intensity in the price decline. Prices
have also been under pressure this week as fresh EIA
forecasts show that US shale production will rebound
further in May. Drilling productivity report showed
that shale oil output will increase by 123,000 bpd in
May to 5.19 mbpd, biggest jump in two years. Data
showed that oil rig count in US jumped for 13
th
consecutive week. In terms of price action, we believe
that weakness in oil prices may persist today.
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT- Metric Tonne, MBBL – Million Barrels, BCF – Billion Cubic Feet.
Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report
Page 2

Commodities Daily
Agricultural Commodities
Cardamom futures plunged over 3% during as investors
and speculators exited their bets on diminishing physical
demand for cardamom in domestic spot market.
Further, sufficient supplies on higher physical arrivals
from major cardamom producing regions too influenced
downward trend in domestic cardamom prices.
Castor seed futures jumped higher as market
participants have expected lower production in current
season while the demand is on higher side. As per latest
third advance estimates for Gujarat state, production of
castor seed in 2016/17 is revised down to 12.55 lakh
tonnes, which is lower by 1.65 lakh tonnes or 11%
estimated in its second estimates in January 2017. In
2015/16, production was estimated at 14.13 lakh
tonnes.
Jeera futures traded up after participants widened their
positions, backed by rising domestic and export demand
at the spot market. Moreover, restricted supplies in
domestic spot market due to reports of lower
production estimates in Gujarat also added support to
jeera prices' uptrend.
India’s sugar production in 2017/18 (Oct-Sept) is
expected to increase by 18 percent to 25.8 million
metric tons (MMT). Uttar Pradesh will be the largest
producer of sugar in India, followed by Maharashtra.
Current year sugar production is revised lower to 21.9
MMT, reflecting current trade estimates.
Sugarcane planting and production in MY 2017/18 (out-
year) will recover to 4.7 million hectares (MH) and 330
MMT. While sugar consumption is expected to recover
marginally to 26 MMT, India may import estimated 0.5
MMT of (mostly raw) sugar to augment local supplies.
Commodity
Cardamom
Castor Seed
Cocud
Cotton
CPO
Dhaniya
Guar Gum
Guar Seed
Jeera
Mentha Oil
R M Seed
Soyabean
Soyoil
Sugar
Turmeric
Wheat
Month
May
May
May
Apr
Apr
May
May
May
May
Apr
May
May
May
May
May
May
Price
1179
4674
2012
20950
510.2
7112
8610
3988
19400
942.1
3815
3007
618.9
3762
6086
1651
%Chg.
-3.47%
1.57%
-1.34%
1.01%
0.33%
0.13%
-0.82%
-0.56%
1.33%
-1.78%
0.00%
-0.03%
-0.06%
-0.21%
-0.56%
1.18%
Commodity
Malaysian Palm Oil
US Soybean
US Soyoil
US Soymeal
US Cotton
China Cotton
US Sugar
Expiry
Apr
May
May
May
May
May
Apr
Price
2611
949
31.56
310.5
77.69
15465
16.42
% Chg.
1.04%
-0.13%
-0.06%
-0.10%
0.03%
0.98%
-1.68%
Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report
Page 3

Commodities Daily
Level playing Sheet
Commodity
Gold
Gold
Silver
Silver
Crude
Crude
Nat Gas
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Nickel
Aluminium
Exch.
MCX
COMEX
MCX
COMEX
MCX
NYMEX
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
Expiry
Jun
May
May
May
May
May
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Close
29305
1282
41898
18.16
3288
50.85
207.5
361.3
165.4
139.8
607.6
123.2
S2
29094
1265
41538
17.95
3183
48.91
200.8
352.6
160.8
135.3
595.3
121.6
S1
29199
1273
41718
18.06
3236
49.88
204.1
356.9
163.1
137.6
601.4
122.4
Pivot
29307
1282
41884
18.19
3319
51.48
206.3
361.2
164.4
138.9
608.5
122.8
R1
29412
1290
42064
18.30
3372
52.45
209.6
365.5
166.7
141.1
614.6
123.6
R2
29520
1299
42230
18.43
3455
54.05
211.8
369.8
168.0
142.4
621.7
124.1
Trend
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bullish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Flat
Conviction
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Intraday Range
29147 - 29360
1269 - 1286
41628 - 41974
18 - 18.24
3210 - 3346
49 - 52
205 - 211
355 - 363
164 - 167
138 - 142
598 - 612
123 - 124
Commodity
CARDAMOM
CASTOR SEED
COCUDAKL
Cotton
CPO
DHANIYA
JEERA
Guar Seed
Guar Gum
MENTHA OIL
R M Seed
Soyabean
SOYOIL
SUGAR
TURMERIC
WHEAT
Exch.
NCDEX
NCDEX
MCX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
MCX
NCDEX
NCDEX
MCX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
Expiry
May
May
May
Apr
Apr
May
May
May
May
Apr
May
May
May
May
May
May
Close
1,179
4,674
2,012
20,950
510
7,112
19,400
3,988
8,610
942
3,815
3,007
619
3,762
6,086
1,651
S2
1,141
4,582
1,985
20,610
505
6,931
19,053
3,923
8,479
918
3,768
2,981
611
3,756
5,990
1,636
S1
1,160
4,628
1,998
20,780
508
7,021
19,227
3,956
8,545
930
3,792
2,994
615
3,759
6,038
1,643
Pivot
1,192
4,676
2,008
20,880
510
7,096
19,513
3,984
8,597
945
3,806
3,003
618
3,762
6,098
1,648
R1
1,211
4,722
2,021
21,050
512
7,186
19,687
4,017
8,663
957
3,830
3,016
622
3,765
6,146
1,655
R2
1,244
4,770
2,031
21,150
515
7,261
19,973
4,045
8,715
972
3,844
3,025
625
3,768
6,206
1,660
Trend
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Strong
Bearish
Bearish
Bullish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bullish
Bearish
Strong
Bearish
Flat
Conviction
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
High
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Intraday
Range
1150 - 1202
4652 - 4746
2003 - 2026
20830 - 21100
509 - 514
6976 - 7141
19140 - 19600
3970 - 4031
8571 - 8689
924 - 951
3799 - 3837
2999 - 3021
616 - 623
3761 - 3767
6014 - 6122
1646 - 1658
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Page 4

Commodities Daily
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