27 April 2017
Update
| Sector:
Oil & Gas
BSE SENSEX
30,029
S&P CNX
9,342
ONGC
CMP: INR180
TP: INR233 (+30%)
Projects finally showing results
Upgrade to Buy
Cost efficiency, production growth and dividend yield call for re-rating
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
ONGC IN
12,833
212/133
-6/-11/11
2,335.7
34.4
1422
31.9
After almost a decade of negative-to-flat growth, we believe gas production would
grow at 10-15% annually for the next five years. Our recent meeting with the
management reinforced our belief.
Continued improved oil recovery (IOR) and contribution of new projects to
production would also help reverse the decadal trend of negative-to-flat growth.
We expect oil prices to remain in the band of USD50-60/bbl, which would provide
stability to its earnings.
After two years of negative EPS growth, we expect EPS growth of 31% in FY18 and
14% in FY19. Positive policy developments, cost efficiency and dividend yield of 4-
6% would further aid re-rating of the stock. Upgrade to Buy.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
FY17E FY18E
1408
1683
Sales
549
689
EBITDA
196
257
NP
15.3
20.0
EPS (Rs)
12.2
31.1
EPS Gr. (%)
150
158
BV/Sh. (Rs)
10.4
13.0
RoE (%)
9.0
10.8
RoCE (%)
11.8
9.0
P/E (x)
1.2
1.1
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
5.1
4.1
Div. Yield (%)
4.4
5.7
FY19E
1905
801
294
22.9
14.5
167
14.1
11.6
7.8
1.1
3.5
6.6
Cost efficiencies through lower work-over and water injection
Better optimization has resulted in opex coming down from USD7.4/boe in
FY16 to USD5.9/boe in 9MFY17. We expect this cost efficiency to sustain.
USD1/boe change in opex results in 7% change in EBITDA and EPS.
Gas production to begin growing once again
ONGC expects Daman/C26 to add 4.5mmscmd to production in FY18.
S1 and Vashishta gas fields would add 1.5mmscmd while WO16 would add
1.2mmscmd in FY18.
IOR at the Bassein field is expected to add 3.9mmscmd in FY19. In the longer
run, Cluster-2 at KG DWN-98/2 would add a peak production of ~16mmscmd.
Oil production also inching up
ONGC has guided that oil production from nominated fields would increase.
WO16 would add 3,800bopd in FY18 while Vasai East is likely to add another
4,800bopd.
Ratna & R-series would add 3,000bopd in FY19 along with 8,000bopd from
B127 and 5,000bopd from Assam.
Ratna & R-series would peak at 14,700bopd in FY20. Production from Cluster-
2 would commence in FY21, with peak expected at 77,000bopd.
Expects no subsidy till USD65/bbl
The company has not been bearing any subsidy since 2QFY16. Realization in
9MFY17 was USD48.65/bbl against USD51.46/bbl in 9MFY16.
Subsidy in 9MFY16 stood at USD1.52/bbl. We do not expect any subsidy
burden to be levied on ONGC as long as oil prices are below USD65/bbl.
However, realization may be capped if oil prices rise above USD65/bbl.
We estimate that USD5/bbl increase in realization results in 10% increase in
EPS.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-16 Sep-16 Dec-15
Promoter
68.9
68.9
68.9
DII
11.7
11.9
11.5
FII
5.8
5.4
6.0
Others
13.6
13.8
13.6
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
ONGC
Sensex - Rebased
220
200
180
160
140
120
Swarnendu Bhushan
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1566
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

ONGC
Upgrade to Buy
ONGC has spent a total of INR424b on IOR since CY00. In FY16, 29.6% of the oil
production came from IOR. The government has been working on incentivizing
recovery techniques. This may further reduce costs for the company.
There are strong signs that OPEC would extend the ongoing production cut. 98%
adherence to agreed production cut has been observed, which suggests the
seriousness towards oil price stability. With Brent of USD55/60/bbl in FY18/19,
we expect EPS of INR20/22.9 in FY18/19.
ONGC is trading at 7.8x FY19E EPS of INR22.9 and at an EV of 3.5x FY19E EBITDA.
Using SOTP, we value the stock at INR233 (upside of 30%). We upgrade the
stock from Neutral to
Buy.
Exhibit 1: Valuation of global peers – ONGC is undervalued compared to its global peers
20
Oil Search
16
Inpex
12
8
4
0
0.0
5.0
10.0
PE (x)
Source: Company, MOSL
15.0
20.0
25.0
Santos
PTTEP
CNOOC
Woodside
Average
Statoil
Encana
Canadian Natural
Resources
Devon
Southwestern
ONGC
27 April 2017
2

ONGC
Optimization results in lower cost
As a result of lower oil and gas prices, the management has been focusing on
cost efficiencies in order to boost profitability. Due to better optimization in
water injection and work over rigs, the company has been able to decrease its
opex from USD7.4/boe in FY16 to USD5.9/boe in 9MFY17.
We expect this to sustain. USD1/boe decrease in opex results in 3.6% increase in
EBITDA and 6.5% increase in EPS.
Exhibit 2: Opex declines
10
9
7
6
4
Other expenditure (USD/boe produced)
Exhibit 3: Sensitivity to decrease in USD1/boe of opex
Base Case
(FY19E)
800,971
293,991
22.9
Lower
opex
830,018
313,023
24.4
Increase
(%)
3.6
6.5
6.5
EBITDA
PAT
EPS
27 April 2017
3

ONGC
Strong gas production growth after a decadal lull
After a decade of declining-to-flat production, ONGC finally appears geared for a
10-15% CAGR in gas production. The Daman field, which began production from
August 2016, faced some setback due to bankruptcy of vendor, Swiber Offshore.
ONGC has retendered the work being carried out by Swiber. Three platforms are
ready and five more are expected to come up in 2HFY18. (These five platforms
are ready; only installation is pending). Together, the Daman and C26 fields
would yield incremental production of 4.5mmscmd in FY18.
ONGC expects S1 and Vashistha fields to add 1.5mmscmd in FY18, while WO16,
primarily an oilfield, is expected to add 1.2mmscmd. Major jump would come
from KG-DWN-98/2, which would commence production from mid-2019 from
its Cluster-2 area. At a total capex of USD5b for KG-DWN-98/2, a peak
production of ~16mmscmd is expected from Cluster-2.
Exhibit 4: Gas production to rise 10-15% annually
Domestic fields (bcm)
YoY (%)-RHS
15
17
14
14
(3)
23.0
FY05
(2)
22.6
FY06
(1)
(0)
1
3
(0)
2
Production growth coming
from Daman/C26, S1,
Vashistha & KG basin
5
0
(1)
(6)
(4)
21.2
22.2
11
22.4
FY07
22.3
FY08
22.5
FY09
23.1
FY10
23.1
FY11
23.5
FY12
23.6
FY13
23.4
FY14
22.0
FY15
24.6
28.3
32.9
37.5
42.7
FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E
Exhibit 5: Henry Hub prices are averaging at USD2.5/mmbtu
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Exhibit 6: Russian gas price is averaging at USD5.8/mmbtu
12.0
4.59
Henry Hub ($/mmBtu)
Domestic gas prices
likely to increase
10.52
Russia ($/mmBtu)
Bottoming out Russian
gas prices
2.52
9.0
6.0
1.69
3.0
0.0
3.99
5.81
Exhibit 7: Alberta gas prices are averaging at USD2/mmbtu
4.8
3.6
2.4
1.2
0.0
Exhibit 8: NBP UK prices are averaging at USD4.9/mmbtu
10.0
4.37
Alberta Canada ($/mmBtu)
Sharp increase in
Canadian gas prices
9.06
National Balancing Point - UK (USD/mmBtu)
2.00
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
NBP prices have declined recently,
but still above low in Sep 2016
7.00
3.02
4.9
0.82
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
27 April 2017
4

ONGC
Exhibit 9: Segmental contribution of gas is low…
Gas sales (% of conso revenues)
13.2
9.8
10.9
9.0
8.4
9.7
8.8
9.4
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Increase of USD1/mmBtu in
gas price results in ~7%
increase in EBITDA and
~12% increase in PAT
estimates
Exhibit 10: …but increase in gas prices to aid EPS growth
FY19E base
case
EBITDA
PAT
EPS
800,971
293,991
22.9
Increase
of USD1/
mmBtu
854,301
328,837
25.6
Increase
(%)
6.7
11.9
11.9
27 April 2017
5

ONGC
Oil production to grow marginally
As a result of ongoing investments in new projects as well as IOR, ONGC expects
to reverse the trend of declining-to-flat oil production. The WO16 and Vasai East
fields are expected to add 3,800bopd and 4,800bopd, respectively in FY18.
Ratna & R-series would add 3,000bopd in FY19, with peak of 14,700bopd from
FY20. B127 and Assam would add 8,000bopd and 5,000bopd, respectively in
FY19. Major boost would come when oil production from KG-DWN-98/2
commences in mid-2020.
Exhibit 11: Years of efforts in IOR & new projects to reverse declining trend
Domestic fields (mmt)
6.8
3.6
(0.4)
24.4
(7.9)
26.5
FY05
FY06
26.1
FY07
26.0
FY08
25.4
FY09
24.7
FY10
24.4
FY11
23.7
FY12
22.6
FY13
22.2
FY14
22.3
FY15
22.4
22.9
22.8
23.7
24.3
26.4
26.1
FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E
Source: Company, MOSL
(2.2)
(2.8)
(1.0)
(2.9)
YoY (%)-RHS
Production growth coming
from WO16, B127 and
Ratna/R-series
(1.4)
(4.9)
0.1
0.4
2.2
(0.1)
KG Basin
8.8
3.6
2.7
(1.1)
Higher sales-production ratio
ONGC has been using various measures to decrease losses from gross
production due to decline in oil and gas price realization with falling prices. This
has resulted in increased sales-to-production ratio. From average of 85% in
FY13, it has jumped to 88.3% in 9MFY17.
Exhibit 12: Sales-Production ratio improves due to better recovery
Sales/Prod for oil (%)
91.6
86.5
83.9
88.7
85.3
85.9
82.7
85.1
85.5
85.7
88.6
87.9
87.3
88.9
87.2
88.8
87.0
89.0
84.9
Source: Company, MOSL
27 April 2017
6

ONGC
Government reforms to aid rerating
With petrol and diesel already deregulated, the government has been actively
looking at slow deregulation of LPG and kerosene. While kerosene prices are
being increased by 25p/liter monthly, the quota to state governments is being
cut aggressively. Kerosene consumption has declined by 21% in FY17 after a
decline of 3.7% in FY16. The government has also started a pilot direct benefit
transfer scheme for kerosene, which would stop its pilferage.
Exhibit 14: LPG consumption growing
LPG consumption growth (%)
12
9
Consumption of LPG
increases due to
government emphasis on
higher penetration
Exhibit 13: Kerosene consumption coming down
Kero consumption growth (%)
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Consumption of Kerosene continues to
decline due to increased penetration of
LPG and government intentionally cutting
down quota of Kerosene to states
FY03
FY05
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17
6
3
0
FY03
FY05
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 15: Gross under-recovery declines due to low oil prices and deregulation
(INR m)
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
Source: Company, MOSL
Petrol
Diesel
LPG
Kero
Decrease in oil price aided by
deregulation of petrol & diesel and DBT
for LPG reduces under-recovereis
drastically
Government looking at incentivizing IOR
ONGC has made a cumulative investment of INR424b since 2000 in 28 various
IOR projects. IOR contributed 29.6% of oil production in FY16.
Recent news
articles suggest
that the government is working on incentivizing implementation
of IOR techniques to boost production from ageing fields. This may further
lower cost of implementation as well as increase contribution to oil production
for the company.
27 April 2017
7

ONGC
Exhibit 16: Contribution of IOR to ONGC’s oil production
Source: Company, MOSL
Oil prices expected to be in the range of USD50-60/bbl
Led by Saudi Arabia, the adherence to production cut by OPEC countries has
been 98% of the agreed 1.2mnbopd so far. With Russia and OPEC showing their
willingness to extend production cuts for another 3-6 months post June 2017, oil
prices are expected to remain stable in the range of USD50-60/bbl. For our
projections, we assume Brent of USD55/60/bbl in FY18/19.
We estimate that an increase of USD5/bbl in oil price results in 10% increase in
EPS.
Exhibit 17: Oil prices likely to rise if OPEC and Russia extend production cuts beyond June 2017
Global demand
240
180
120
60
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Company, MOSL
Non-OPEC supply
OPEC NGLs
OPEC Crude oil supply
For a balnced market, call for OPEC crude oil supply is 33.1mnbopd, slightly higher than current
production of 32.6mnbopd. If OPEC (& Russia) extend production cut, then oil prices are likely to rise
27 April 2017
8

ONGC
Valuation and view
ONGC is finally set to increase its gas production at 10-15% annually for next five
years as per the management. As a result, we increase our EPS estimates from
INR16.1/17.3 for FY18/19 to INR20/22.9.
The stock is currently trading at 7.8x FY19E EPS and at an EV of 3.5x FY19E
EBITDA. We value the company at 10x (unchanged) FY19E EPS, to which we add
INR21/share as value of listed investments and investment in Mozambique. We
revise our target price from INR173 to INR233 implying an upside of 30%. We
upgrade the stock from Neutral to
Buy.
Exhibit 18: SOTP for ONGC
Valuation of ONGC
Conso FY19 EPS
FY19 Other income (INR bn)
Other income (INR/share)
FY19 EPS excluding other income (INR)
PE (x)
Valuation of ONGC conso (INR/share)
Listed investments
Indian Oil Corporation
Petronet LNG
GAIL
MRPL
Total valuation
Valuation of Mozambique
Recoverable reserves (tcf)
Valuation of block (USD bn)
ONGC's stake (%)
Discount rate (%)
Valuation for ONGC (USD mn)
Value paid (USD bn)
Valuation for ONGC (INR/share)
Valuation of ONGC (INR/share)
22.9
34.0
1.7
21.2
10.0
212
12
3
1
9
237
75
31
16
50
3
3.3
(4)
233
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 19: ONGC: Key assumptions
Y/E March 31 (INR m)
Exchange Rate (INR/USD)
APM Gas Price (USD/mmbtu)
Brent crude price (USD/bbl)
Production Details (mmtoe)
Domestic Oil Prodn (mmt)
Domestic Gas Prodn (bcm)
Domestic Prodn (mmtoe)
OVL Production (mmtoe)
Group Production (mmtoe)
Subsidy Sharing (INRb)
ONGC Subsidy
Oil Price Realization (USD/bbl)
Gross
Upstream Discount
Net
FY07
45.3
2
64.5
27.9
24.9
52.8
8.0
60.7
170
66.3
22.1
44.2
FY08
40.3
2.3
82.3
27.8
25.1
53.0
8.8
61.8
220
85.5
32.6
52.9
FY09
46.0
2
84.8
27.1
25.4
52.6
8.8
61.3
282
88.0
39.6
48.4
FY10
47.5
1.9
69.7
26.5
25.6
52.1
8.9
60.9
116
71.7
15.7
56.0
FY11
45.9
3.9
86.5
27.3
25.3
52.6
9.4
62.0
249
89.4
35.6
53.8
FY12
47.8
4.2
114.5
26.9
25.7
52.6
8.8
61.4
445
117.4
62.4
55.0
FY13
54.4
4.2
110.6
26.1
25.3
51.5
7.3
58.7
494
110.5
62.9
47.6
FY14
60.6
4.2
107.8
26.0
24.9
50.9
8.4
59.3
564
106.7
65.8
40.9
FY15
61.4
4.905
86.0
25.9
23.5
49.5
8.9
58.3
363
86.0
40.9
45.1
FY16
65.5
4.7
47.6
25.9
22.5
48.5
8.9
57.4
17
48.6
1.8
46.8
FY17E FY18E FY19E
67.1
68.5
70.0
3.1
2.9
3.2
49.0
55.0
60.0
26.4
23.5
50.0
12.6
62.6
0
50.0
0.0
50.0
26.2
25.6
51.8
14.3
66.2
0
56.1
0.0
56.1
26.2
29.5
55.7
14.3
70.1
0
61.2
0.0
61.2
Source: Company, MOSL
27 April 2017
9

ONGC
Exhibit 20: Valuation of global peers – ONGC is undervalued compared to its global peers
20
Oil Search
16
Inpex
12
8
4
0
0.0
5.0
10.0
PE (x)
Source: Company, MOSL
15.0
20.0
25.0
Santos
PTTEP
CNOOC
Woodside
Average
Statoil
Encana
Canadian Natural
Resources
Devon
Southwestern
ONGC
27 April 2017
10

ONGC
ONGC: Story in charts
Exhibit 21: Expect domestic production uptick in
coming years (mmt)
Domestic Oil Prodn (mmt)
Domestic Gas Prodn (bcm)
55.7
5.1
4.3
5.4
5.4
Exhibit 22: JV production to decline
JVs (mmtoe)
5.3
5.2
52.1 52.6 52.6 51.5 50.9 49.5
51.8
48.5 50.0
4.9
4.9
25.6 25.3 25.7 25.3 24.9 23.5 22.5 23.5 25.6 29.5
4.4
3.8
26.5 27.3 26.9 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.4 26.2 26.2
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 23: OVL production to increase during FY18/19…
OVL Production (mmtoe)
70.1
66.2
62.6
60.9 62.0 61.4 58.7 59.3 58.3
57.4
14.3
14.3
8.9 9.4 8.8 7.3 8.4 8.9
12.6
8.9
Domestic Prodn (mmtoe)
Exhibit 24: …leading to increase in net realization (USD/bbl)
Net
117
89
72
16
56
36
62
63
66
Upstream Discount
111
107
86
41
49
2
54
55
48
41
45
47
50
56
61
50
56
61
Gross
52.1 52.6 52.6 51.5 50.9 49.5 48.5 50.0 51.8 55.7
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 25: ONGC: 1 Year forward P/E (x)
22
18
14
10
6
2
P/E (x)
15 Yrs Avg(x)
5 Yrs Avg(x)
10 Yrs Avg(x)
12.4
11.4
10.4
8.5
Source: Company, MOSL
27 April 2017
11

ONGC
Financials and Valuations
Consolidated - Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Income from Operations
Change (%)
Government Levies
Other Operating Costs
Total Expenditure
% of Sales
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income
PBT bef. EO Exp.
EO Items
PBT after EO Exp.
Total Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Minority Interest
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
FY13
1,624,032
11.0
256,886
818,387
1,075,274
66.2
548,758
33.8
231,399
317,359
4,838
54,900
367,422
0
367,422
127,519
34.7
-2,294
242,196
242,234
-6.9
14.9
FY14
1,744,771
7.4
261,893
892,607
1,154,500
66.2
590,270
33.8
250,690
339,580
6,243
68,937
402,274
2,423
404,697
127,604
31.5
1,465
275,628
262,235
8.3
15.0
FY15
1,608,897
-7.8
255,065
807,294
1,062,360
66.0
546,538
34.0
289,844
256,694
28,624
59,644
287,715
-14,011
273,704
96,974
35.4
-6,606
183,335
183,638
-30.0
11.4
FY16
1,292,975
-19.6
0
841,408
841,408
65.1
451,567
34.9
241,590
209,977
21,573
100,669
289,073
-61,894
227,179
84,170
37.0
1,771
141,238
174,478
-5.0
13.5
FY17E
1,407,966
8.9
0
859,386
859,386
61.0
548,581
39.0
244,428
304,153
37,078
45,245
312,320
0
312,320
110,469
35.4
6,085
195,766
195,766
12.2
13.9
FY18E
1,682,920
19.5
0
994,138
994,138
59.1
688,782
40.9
273,581
415,201
43,200
34,010
406,010
0
406,010
143,608
35.4
5,696
256,706
256,706
31.1
15.3
(INR Million)
FY19E
1,904,630
13.2
0
1,103,660
1,103,660
57.9
800,971
42.1
324,031
476,940
46,200
33,974
464,714
0
464,714
164,372
35.4
6,351
293,991
293,991
14.5
15.4
Consolidated - Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Capital Employed
FY13
42,778
1,482,502
1,525,280
19,466
204,508
142,251
1,891,506
1,234,978
827,192
407,786
83,255
397,397
841,867
21,282
776,748
127,804
153,956
302,540
192,449
636,828
373,384
263,445
139,920
1,891,506
FY14
42,778
1,678,732
1,721,510
29,125
455,881
178,635
2,385,152
1,408,679
945,671
463,008
183,545
538,270
1,094,748
47,459
915,192
148,015
160,284
365,631
241,263
857,070
543,502
313,568
58,122
2,385,152
FY15
42,778
1,761,766
1,804,544
24,731
518,713
181,759
2,529,748
1,712,933
1,025,052
687,881
201,399
422,115
1,122,017
47,491
890,070
106,062
187,970
297,393
298,644
841,225
490,837
350,388
48,845
2,529,748
FY16
42,778
1,804,666
1,847,443
25,067
535,926
203,553
2,611,989
1,701,114
1,205,496
495,619
176,432
685,950
1,183,722
87,822
920,649
100,897
96,865
405,588
317,299
938,206
528,837
409,369
-17,557
2,611,989
FY17E
64,166
1,861,117
1,925,284
31,152
700,000
203,553
2,859,988
2,028,949
1,281,423
747,526
176,432
572,295
1,231,042
87,822
640,776
111,844
99,340
199,026
230,565
595,905
318,493
277,413
44,870
2,859,988
FY18E
64,166
1,963,189
2,027,355
36,848
740,000
203,553
3,007,756
2,172,811
1,421,482
751,330
176,432
614,742
1,341,211
87,822
672,368
124,359
118,740
186,773
242,497
636,149
352,645
283,505
36,219
3,007,756
(INR Million)
FY19E
64,166
2,080,086
2,144,252
43,200
800,000
203,553
3,191,005
2,300,326
1,570,586
729,740
176,432
643,778
1,439,734
87,822
794,928
135,640
134,383
272,331
252,575
681,430
391,224
290,206
113,498
3,191,005
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Goodwill on Consolidation
Capital WIP
Pre & Producing Properties
Total Investments
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv.
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans and Advances
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
27 April 2017
12

ONGC
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
FCF per share
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Working Capital Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
Net Debt/Equity
FY13
18.9
36.9
118.9
6.3
38.9
FY14
20.4
40.0
134.1
6.3
34.5
FY15
14.3
36.9
140.6
6.3
53.2
12.5
4.9
1.3
1.6
4.6
3.5
-0.8
10.4
9.1
10.4
0.9
0.6
24
43
111
1.1
9.0
0.1
FY16
13.6
32.4
144.0
5.7
62.0
13.2
5.5
1.2
1.9
5.4
3.2
21.2
9.6
8.3
8.3
0.8
0.5
28
27
149
1.0
9.7
0.0
FY17E
15.3
34.3
150.0
7.9
60.2
11.8
5.2
1.2
2.0
5.1
4.4
-20.6
10.4
9.0
11.5
0.7
0.5
29
26
83
1.1
8.2
0.2
FY18E
20.0
41.3
158.0
10.3
60.2
9.0
4.3
1.1
1.7
4.1
5.7
7.1
13.0
10.8
13.0
0.8
0.6
27
26
76
1.1
9.6
0.2
FY19E
22.9
48.2
167.1
11.8
60.2
7.8
3.7
1.1
1.5
3.5
6.6
14.9
14.1
11.6
14.3
0.8
0.6
26
26
75
1.2
10.3
0.2
3.5
1.9
16.8
15.0
20.2
1.3
0.9
29
35
84
1.2
65.6
-0.1
3.5
-6.5
16.2
14.3
17.9
1.2
0.7
31
34
114
1.1
54.4
0.0
Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
Others
CF from Operating incl EO
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Others
CF from Investments
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
FY13
367,422
120,942
-124,257
-11,710
352,397
94,606
447,003
-422,802
24,201
10,698
11,524
-400,580
2,038
-2,678
-110,021
-117,532
-71,109
373,649
302,539
FY14
394,134
233,219
-105,667
42,031
563,718
-31,014
532,704
-615,655
-82,951
-20,671
14,467
-621,859
1,782
247,223
-97,624
152,246
63,091
302,539
365,631
FY15
273,704
269,009
-90,292
-115,768
336,653
3,433
340,086
-350,957
-10,871
0
47,997
-302,960
-23
1,603
-94,953
-105,364
-68,238
365,631
297,393
FY16
273,897
307,994
-68,207
174,596
688,280
0
688,280
-416,305
271,975
-40,331
-13,220
-469,856
0
17,213
-127,442
-110,229
108,195
297,393
405,587
FY17E
312,320
244,428
-110,469
-280,313
165,965
0
165,965
-430,000
-264,035
0
-10,064
-440,064
21,389
164,074
-117,925
67,538
-206,561
405,587
199,026
(INR Million)
FY18E
406,010
273,581
-143,608
-14,927
521,056
0
521,056
-430,000
91,056
0
11,325
-418,675
0
40,000
-154,634
-114,634
-12,253
199,026
186,773
FY19E
464,714
324,031
-164,372
-3,046
621,327
0
621,327
-430,000
191,327
0
11,325
-418,675
0
60,000
-177,094
-117,094
85,558
186,773
272,331
27 April 2017
13

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