Shriram Transport Finance
BSE SENSEX
30,030
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,342
SHTF IN
226.9
236.9 / 3.6
1325 / 778
-1/-11/-11
826
73.9
27 April 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Financials
CMP: INR1,044
TP: INR1,269 (+22%)
Buy
Performance better than expectation despite migration to 120dpd
Shriram Transport’s (SHTF) 4QFY17 PAT of INR1.5b was in line with our
estimate. Better-than-expected margins and controlled opex led to an 8% beat
on operating profit (+6% YoY).
Despite migration to 120dpd (15% of GNPA), management kept its focus on
balance sheet strength. PCR declined to just 70% from 75% a quarter ago.
Hence, provisioning was higher than estimate and led to in-line PAT.
Disbursement in old vehicle loans was INR93.5b, in line with the trend
witnessed over past 6-7 quarters. Management guided that a complete
recovery is 2-3 quarters away and that near-term growth will be driven by
improved agri demand. Management guided for 12-15% AUM growth in FY18.
Reported NIM on AUM contracted 20bp QoQ to 6.97%, driven by lower yields
due to interest reversals. However, we are enthused by the reduction in cost of
funds over past two quarters (-60bp). SHTF has borne significantly higher cost
of funds than peers (refer to Exhibit 2) due to high cost of legacy borrowings.
We expect a gradual decline in cost of funds over next 1-2 years as these
borrowings are replaced by lower-cost NCDs.
GNPL ratio increased 160bp QoQ to 8.2% due to the impact of NPA recognition
migration. GNPL on 180dpd basis was 4.55% v/s 4.5% in 2QFY17 and 4.3% in
4QFY16 (ignoring QoQ comparison due to demon impact).
PAT for FY17 was up 7% YoY at INR12.6b, while RoA/RoE was 1.7%/11.7%.
Valuation and view:
SHTF’s return ratios are at cyclical lows, with decadal high
credit cost and NPLs. We believe the worst of asset quality troubles is behind, and
SHTF should witness improving return ratios due to lower credit costs. Additionally,
we believe margin compression fears are overplayed with the company yet to reap
significant benefit on CoF. Delayed pick-up in infra activities is a risk. We cut our
FY18-19 estimates by 6%/2% to factor in slower AUM growth and higher PCR. The
stock trades at 1.9x/1.6x FY18/19E BV.
BUY
with a TP of INR1,269 (2x FY19E BVPS).
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Inc.
55.2 61.0 69.4
PPP
43.7 47.9 54.6
PAT
12.6 17.3 22.0
Cons.PAT
12.6 17.6 22.4
EPS (INR)
55.4 76.3 96.9
Cons. EPS (INR)
55.6 77.4 98.6
BV/Sh (INR)
498
554 634.0
Cons. BV (INR)
493
556 638.0
RoA on AUM (%)
2.0
2.6
2.9
RoE (%)
11.7 14.5 16.3
Payout (%)
21.2 18.6 17.4
Valuations
P/Cons. EPS (x)
18.8 13.5 10.6
P/Cons. BV (x)
2.1
1.9
1.6
Div. Yield (%)
1.0
1.2
1.4
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1539
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.