2 May 2017
Q4FY17 Results Update | Sector: Utilities
JSW Energy
BSE SENSEX
29,921
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INR m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,314
JSW IN
1,640
110.0 / 1.7
86/54
-2/-14/-25
288
25.0
CMP: INR62
TP: INR88 (+42%)
Buy
Weak demand and higher fuel cost impact performance
Merchant capacities at discount to replacement cost; Reiterating Buy
JSW Energy’s (JSWE) 4QFY17 EBITDA was down 48% YoY/11% QoQ to INR5.9b (est.
of INR6.5b) due to lower generation (demand), shutdown at Ratnagiri and higher
fuel cost. PAT was down 92% YoY/+13% QoQ to INR242m. For FY17, EBITDA
declined 20% YoY to INR33b, while PAT fell 55% YoY to INR6.3b.
Blending domestic coal provides hedge against coal prices:
Blending domestic
coal up to 50% at Ratnagiri and Vijaynagar would help if international coal
prices are upwards of USD70-75/t (subject to e-auction coal prices; Exhibit 3, 4
and 5). It would act as a hedge against rising coal prices.
PPA for 200MW at Karcham Wangtoo soon:
Of the contracted capacity of
704MW, PPA for 200MW was pending approval of capital cost by CERC (on
March 30 2017). The PPA is now expected soon (likely with Punjab).
Likelihood of extension of short-term PPA at Vijaynagar:
According to
management, the 650MW PPA with Karnataka could be extended (expires by
May 2017) as power availability from state gencos has reduced due to water
shortage and maintenance. We estimate Vijaynagar to run at 50% PLF and
realization of INR3/kWh for FY18, as we believe the extension, if any, will be for
a very short period due to addition of new generation/transmission capacities.
Merchant assets available at discount to replacement cost; Move to FY19E; Buy:
We have upgraded EBITDA by ~5% to ~INR35b and PAT by ~2x to INR2.9b for FY19E
on marginally higher merchant realization and lower interest cost. Bina and JPL
acquisitions are included in our forecast. At current stock price, JSWE’s merchant
capacities are valued at ~INR40m/MW (Exhibit 7), at a discount to replacement
cost of INR60m/MW. Balance sheet is strong at 1.4x D:E, with annual FCF (post-
interest) generation of INR11-14b on support from contracted capacities. We roll
forward to FY19E valuation at SOTP-based TP of INR88 (Exhibit 6). Reiterate
Buy.
FY17
2Q
3Q
4Q
20,470 19,043 18,621
-19.1 -28.1 -30.6
10,843 12,468 12,752
9,627 6,575 5,869
47.0
34.5
31.5
2,471 2,444 2,379
4,356 4,229 3,970
516
505
732
3,316
407
253
0
0
0
3,316
407
253
1,167
249
22
35.2
61.2
8.6
-25
-56
-11
2,174
214
242
2,174
214
242
-42.3 -93.3 -92.1
FY16
99,690
6.3
58,244
41,446
41.6
9,502
15,032
2,100
19,013
-1,500
20,513
6,051
29.5
507
13,955
12,897
-6.0
FY17
82,634
-17.1
49,391
33,244
40.2
9,692
16,848
2,170
8,875
0
8,875
2,685
30.3
-106
6,295
6,295
-51.2
FY17
4QE
19,696
-26.5
13,167
6,529
33.1
2,487
4,030
559
571
0
571
-90
-15.7
370
290
290
-90.5
vs Est
(%)
-5
-3
-10
-4
-2
31
-56
-56
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
826.3 909.9 1,084.2
EBITDA
33.2
32.0
34.9
PAT
6.3
3.4
2.9
EPS (INR)
3.9
2.1
1.8
Gr. (%)
-49.1 -45.2 -16.9
BV/Sh (INR)
63.7
63.5
63.0
RoE (%)
6.7
3.3
2.8
RoCE (%)
8.7
7.7
7.7
P/E (x)
17.4
31.7
38.1
P/BV (x)
1.1
1.1
1.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra-Ord expense
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
MI and Associates
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
1Q
21,070
-17.6
12,897
8,173
38.8
1,984
2,640
691
4,239
0
4,239
1,155
27.2
310
2,775
2,775
-15.2
FY16
2Q
3Q
4Q
25,314 26,491 26,814
12.4
11.3
22.5
15,332 14,579 15,436
9,983 11,913 11,378
39.4
45.0
42.4
2,240 2,650 2,627
3,511 4,491 4,389
898
264
247
5,129 5,035 4,610
-1,500
0
0
6,629 5,035 4,610
1,537 1,816 1,543
23.2
36.1
33.5
172
12
12
4,920 3,206 3,054
3,767 3,206 3,054
16.4 -19.0
-5.9
1Q
24,500
16.3
13,328
11,173
45.6
2,398
4,293
416
4,899
0
4,899
1,248
25.5
-14
3,665
3,665
32.1
-17
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549