3 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
Marico
BSE SENSEX
29,921
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,314
MRCO IN
1,290.2
411.4 / 6.2
325 / 235
7/10/2
348
40.3
CMP: INR319 TP: INR335 (+5%)
Downgrade to Neutral
Remarkable volume growth, despite weak operating environment
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
59.2
67.5
78.1
EBITDA
11.4
12.4
14.9
PAT
8.1
9.0
10.9
EPS (INR)
6.3
6.9
8.4
Gr. (%)
12.1
10.5
21.1
BV/Sh (INR)
18.0
21.1
23.0
RoE (%)
31.5
30.3
32.7
RoCE (%)
47.7
46.1
65.4
P/E (x)
50.8
45.9
37.9
P/BV (x)
17.7
15.1
13.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Strong volume growth:
Marico’s (MRCO) consolidated net sales rose 2.2% YoY
(est. of +4.4%) to INR13.2b. Domestic volumes increased 10% YoY (est. of +7%),
despite 8% growth in the base quarter. Domestic revenues grew 6% YoY, while
reported international revenues declined 8% (-5% CC). Parachute sales grew
11% with 15% volume growth (est. of +11%), Saffola sales grew 3% with 6%
volume growth (est. of mid-single-digit increase), and Value Added Hair Oils
sales grew 9% with 10% volume growth (est. of mid-single-digit increase).
Consolidated gross margin contracted 180bp YoY (est. of -300bp) to 51.6%.
EBITDA came in 17.7% ahead of expectations, mainly led by lower-than-
expected contraction in gross margin (despite a huge increase in material
costs) and a sharp cut in A&P (-410bp YoY). EBITDA increased 20.1% YoY (est.
of +2.1% YoY) to INR2.5b, with the margin expanding 290bp YoY (est. of -30bp)
to 19.2%. Adj. PAT increased 25.5% YoY (est. of +6.2%) to INR1.7b.
FY17 performance:
Consolidated sales declined 1.6% YoY to INR59.2b. EBITDA
margin was up 200bp YoY to 19.3%. Adj. PAT rose 12.1% YoY to INR8.1b,
registering the sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth. Inventory days
rose to 67 from 58 due to an increase in costs of copra and other materials.
Downgrade to Neutral:
Strength of the business model has been
demonstrated again through double-digit volume growth. We remain positive
on the longer-term earnings growth prospects. MRCO’s investment in
distribution technology is far ahead of peers, which should serve them in good
stead over the long term. After our upgrade to Buy in December, the stock has
appreciated ~25%, and at 37.9x FY19E EPS, valuations are no longer attractive
from a one-year investment viewpoint. We thus downgrade to
Neutral
with a
target price of INR335 (40x FY19EPS, 10% premium to three-year average).
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.