BSE SENSEX
30,126
S&P CNX
9,360
Aurobindo Pharma
CMP: INR592
4 May 2017
Update
| Sector:
Healthcare
TP: INR900(+52%)
Buy
Positives outweigh risks – time to accumulate
USFDA inspections not a cause of concern:
Aurobindo Pharma’s (ARBP) Unit 3
(oral solids; ~USD200m sales) and Unit 4 (injectables; ~USD100m of sales)
facilities received six and seven observations, respectively, following the USFDA
inspection in April 2017. Unit 3 observations are already out – there are no
data integrity issues, with all the observations being procedural in nature. Unit
4 was previously inspected in September 2016 and received EIR in February
this year. The inspection was triggered as ARBP added a new block in the
facility. According to the company, all the observations at Unit 4 are procedural
(letter should be out in coming few days).
Lower tax rate in US bodes well; risk mitigation strategy in place for border
tax:
The US government has proposed to lower the corporate tax rate from
35% to 15%. The company’s US subsidiaries generated PBT of INR5b in FY16
and paid tax @32% of PBT. If the tax rate in the US comes down to 15%, then
ARBP will save >INR1b in FY17/18E (EPS of ~INR1.8-2). On the other hand,
border tax adjustment is a key overhang to the generic suppliers. We believe
ARBP can mitigate this risk partially by expanding its Auro Life facility (can go 3x
by doing brownfield expansion).
Pricing risk lowest among peers:
No single product for ARBP contributes more
than 3% of sales (unlike SUNP, LPC and DRRD, where the top three products
account for >20-25% of sales). Also, no single ANDA has any meaningful
disproportionate contribution to margins, as ARBP has a matured product
basket with all ~190 launched ANDAs facing competition from multiple players
(typically 4-5 or more).
R&D expense to remain range bound in near term:
We expect ARBP to file 35-
40 ANDAs in FY18E (including 6-7 controlled substance, 10-15 oncology &
hormones, etc.). Oncology & hormones-related R&D expense will be borne by
the Eugia JV, and will not be part of R&D expense for ARBP. We expect R&D
expense for the company to not inch up beyond 5.5% in FY18E and 7% in
FY19E. Impact of this increase in expense will get offset by ~50% growth in the
high-margin injectables business.
Commissioning of key plants to drive volume growth in FY18/19E:
Over next
6-9 months, three key formulation plants are getting commissioned, including
Vizag (dedicated supply to EU started in March 17), Unit XVI (antibiotic
injectable plant to supply products in the US) and Naidupet (oral solids plant to
supply to the US). Commissioning of the Vizag plant will have a two-pronged
impact: 1) Capacity at Unit VII and Unit III will get released (which are primarily
used for supply to the US, and are running at capacity utilization of ~80%). 2)
European business margin should expand (to ~7-8% in FY18E from ~5%
currently) as the company plans to manufacture 50% of products sold in EU at
this plant. The Naidupet plant will get commissioned by mid-FY18E, and will be
one of the largest formulations plants for ARBP (with capacity of 7-8b tablets).
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
ARBP IN
586
895 / 582
-14/-29/-47
347.0
5.4
1605
48.1
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2017E 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
151.7 174.9 199.3
EBITDA
35.8
41.8
48.8
PAT
23.3
26.6
31.8
EPS (INR)
39.8
45.4
54.3
Gr. (%)
17.5
14.1
19.7
BV/Sh (INR)
157.9 200.8 252.6
RoE (%)
28.6
25.3
24.0
RoCE (%)
19.5
19.4
19.5
P/E (x)
14.9
13.0
10.9
P/BV (x)
3.7
2.9
2.3
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16
Promoter
51.9
51.9
53.8
DII
12.8
11.0
7.3
FII
21.0
24.1
27.4
Others
14.4
13.0
11.5
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Aurobindo Pharma
Sensex - Rebased
1,050
950
850
750
650
550
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.