Godrej Consumer
BSE SENSEX
29,933
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,317
GCPL IN
340.6
656.8 / 9.9
1956 / 1286
13/20/27
354
36.7
9 May 2017
Q4FY17 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR1,929
TP:INR1,950(+1%)
Neutral
Domestic branded volumes grow 5% led by Hair color portfolio
Godrej Consumer’s (GCPL) 4QFY17 consol. net sales grew 11.8% YoY
to
INR23.8b (est. of INR24.5b). Consol. EBITDA growth of 19.5% YoY to INR5.4b
(est. of INR5.04b) and adj. PAT growth of 21.4% YoY to INR3.83b (est. of
INR3.4b) were both better than expectations. Organic consol. CC sales grew 6%
YoY, while India business sales were up strongly by 10% YoY in 4QFY17.
Gross margin expanded 260bp YoY to 56.6%.
Ad spend to sales declined 70bp
YoY to 6.5%, but the fall was not as steep as witnessed by peers for the
quarter. EBITDA margin expanded 150bp YoY to 22.7% in 4QFY17. Consol.
EBITDA grew 19.5% YoY to INR5.4b (est. of INR5.04b). Thus, despite consol.
sales being 2.6% below expectations, EBITDA was 7.4% ahead of forecasts.
Higher-than-expected other income and a lower-than-forecast tax rate led to
PAT beat of 12.5%. Adj. PAT grew 21.4% YoY to INR3.83b (est. of INR3.4b).
India branded business volume growth stood at 5% YoY.
Household
Insecticides business reported 4% YoY sales growth, Soaps grew 9% YoY, while
Hair color sales were up 13% YoY (double-digit revenue growth in Hair colors
after five quarters).
International:
CC sales grew 22% YoY (with 1% organic sales growth). On CC
basis, Indonesia sales were flat, Africa/LatAM grew 61%/19%, while Europe
sales declined 5%.
FY17 performance:
Consol. sales, EBITDA and adj. PAT growth stood at 9.7%,
16.2% and 12.3%, respectively.
Valuation and view:
At 38.6x March 2019E EPS, the stock appears fairly valued.
While earnings growth has been more consistent than FMCG peers (FY17
reported eighth consecutive year of double-digit EBITDA and PAT growth), we
believe that due to its exposure to various geographies, attendant currency
risks and relatively low RoE (mid-20s), the stock does not warrant a higher
multiple. Maintain
Neutral
with TP of INR1,950 (39x March-19E EPS, a 10%
premium to 3-year average owing to higher earnings consistency relative to
peers).
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
92.4 107.3 122.4
EBITDA
18.9
22.1
24.9
PAT
12.9
14.8
17.0
EPS (INR)
37.8
43.6
50.0
Gr. (%)
12.4
15.4
14.6
BV/Sh (INR)
155.7 200.6 233.5
RoE (%)
24.6
24.5
23.0
RoCE (%)
16.8
16.6
16.5
P/E (x)
51.0
44.2
38.6
P/BV (x)
12.4
9.6
8.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261