Godrej Consumer
BSE SENSEX
30,248
S&P CNX
9,407
10 May 2017
Update
| Sector:
Consumer
CMP: INR1,925
TP: INR1,950(+1%)
Neutral
Increased focus on new growth vectors encouraging
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val ( INRm)
Free float (%)
We attended Godrej Consumer’s (GCPL) analyst meet. Key takeaways:
GCPL IN
340.5
1956 / 1286
12/18/22
656.9
10.2
354
36.7
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
92.4 107.3 122.4
EBITDA
18.9
22.1
24.9
PAT
12.9
14.8
17.0
EPS (INR)
37.8
43.6
50.0
Gr. (%)
12.4
15.4
14.6
BV/Sh (INR)
155.7 200.6 233.5
RoE (%)
24.6
24.5
23.0
RoCE (%)
16.8
16.6
16.5
P/E (x)
50.9
44.1
38.5
P/BV (x)
12.4
9.6
8.2
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16
Promoter
63.3
63.3
63.3
DII
2.2
2.1
1.9
FII
28.4
28.4
28.6
Others
6.1
6.2
6.3
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Godrej Consumer
Sensex - Rebased
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
The huge risk appetite for acquisitions seems to have faded in recent years, and the
focus now appears to be on relatively small acquisitions and improving consolidated
RoCEs, which had worsened over many years.
Management believes that gross margin needs to go up every year to be able to
invest more in the core business as well as new vectors.
GCPL is now spending 27% of A&P on new products, as against 15% four years ago, in
the quest for new vectors of growth.
New products have on average 1,500bp higher gross margin compared to the core
range, and thus the impact on EBITDA margin from increased A&P has been limited.
New growth vector in Indonesia is Hair Care, while in Africa it will be Wet Hair
products.
We maintain our Neutral rating with a target price of INR1,950. At 38.5x Mar-19E
EPS, the stock appears fairly valued.
Strategy:
The thrust remains on growing ahead of category across geographies
and on profitable growth. Nisaba Godrej, who has been part of the business for
around 10 years, took over as executive chairperson of the board (effective 10
May 2017), replacing her father Adi Godrej, who has now been designated as
chairman emeritus. She underlined the need for building a team ready for
future growth with a focus on product development/improvement, stating that
she has been part of these activities in her erstwhile role. The huge risk
appetite for acquisitions seems to have reduced in recent years, and the focus
appears to be on relatively small acquisitions and improving consolidated
RoCE, which has been adversely impacted by a spate of acquisitions.
Overall business:
From a geographical mix perspective, India contributed 52%
of consolidated sales in FY17, followed by Africa (21%; including the Strength of
Nature acquisition), Indonesia (16%), Latin America (6%), the UK (4%) and
others (1%). From an overall business mix perspective, Hair Care accounted for
31% of consolidated sales in FY17, followed by Household Insecticides (HI; 30%),
Personal Wash (17%), Air Care (7%) and other smaller segments (15%).
Increasing salience of Household Insecticides and Hair Care is margin-accretive,
as profitability in Personal Wash (mainly soaps) is lower than the other two
large segments. The two large overseas markets – Indonesia and Africa – are
also more profitable than India. Management is keen to ensure that the core
business remains strong while still building new growth vectors across
geographies. It believes that gross margin needs to go up every year to be able
to invest more in core business as well as new vectors. Management has made
a conscious call to not expand into Food & Beverage. However, it clarified that
this is not cast in stone and that decisions are reviewed every 4-5 years. Project
Pi and its equivalents worldwide have led to cumulative cost savings of INR4b.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261