11 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
Granules India
Buy
BSE SENSEX
30,251
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,422
GRAN IN
Margin expansion continues; Strong FY18 guidance
216.7
Sales declined 2.4% YoY to INR3.6b (5% above est.) in 4QFY17. EBITDA came
27.1 / 0.4
in at INR785m (9% above est.), with the margin expanding 60bp YoY (+40bp
154 / 91
QoQ) to 21.6% (est. of 20.8%). Notably, EBITDA margin has improved from a
3/21/-6
197
low of ~11% in FY13 to current levels, led by a change in product mix and
46.5
capacity expansion. PAT rose 68.2% YoY (+17% QoQ) to INR457m (25.6%
CMP: INR146
TP: INR200(+37%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
14.4
17.4
EBITDA
3.0
3.7
PAT
1.7
2.1
EPS (INR)
7.3
8.1
Gr. (%)
32.7
12.0
BV/Sh (INR)
43.5
60.4
RoE (%)
20.0
16.3
RoCE (%)
11.6
9.8
P/E (x)
20.1
18.0
P/BV (x)
2.6
1.9
2019E
23.9
5.2
2.8
11.1
37.0
68.9
17.2
11.0
13.1
1.7
above est.). Associate income posted profit of INR94m v/s loss of INR25.2m
in 4QFY16, mainly due to higher contribution from Omnichem JV.
Strong FY18 guidance; US business commercialization expected from FY19
:
GRAN guided for strong revenue growth of ~20% and >20% PAT growth on
ramp-up of new capacity, strong growth in formulations and Omnichem JV.
Two complex filings were done from its Virginia facility (mkt. size of
USD660m; 3-4 player market at the time of launch). Monetization of these
products is expected in FY19 (target action date of Jan-18 for one product).
Concall takeaways:
1) To file 12 ANDAs in FY18 (incl. six complex filings from
Virginia); 2) To spend INR6b as capex in FY18 (~USD40m in US, rest in India);
3) sales from Auctus at INR1.6b in FY17; 4) USD1.2b incurred in US in FY17.
Earnings acceleration to drive valuation
:
GRAN trades at ~13x FY19E EPS
(despite assuming equity dilution of >10%). We raise target multiple for GRAN to
18x from 16x (~5-10% premium to peers) on strong EPS CAGR of ~30% till FY20E.
Our TP of INR200 is based on 18x FY19E PER (v/s INR160 @16x 1HFY19E PER).
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.