Oriental Bank of Commerce
BSE SENSEX
30,188
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2017 2018E
NII
49.1
52.9
OP
41.7
37.6
NP
NM
5.9
EPS (INR)
-31.6
17.1
EPS Growth (%)
NM
NM
BV/Sh. (INR)
365.3
382.3
RoE (%)
-8.4
4.6
RoA (%)
-0.4
0.2
P/E (x)
-5.2
9.6
P/BV (x)
0.45
0.43
S&P CNX
9,401
OBC IN
Another weak quarter; Stress addition increases to AQR levels
346.2
OBC reported loss of INR12.2b (~2x of FY15 and FY16 PAT combined) v/s est.
43.3 / 0.6
loss of INR1.1b, primarily due to elevated credit costs of INR30.5b (8.2%
138 / 75
annualized, highest in the history of the bank). Asset quality remains under
7/4/4
469
pressure, led by elevated stress additions (INR39b v/s INR27b in 3Q) and
41.6
muted recoveries/upgrades.
12 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Financials
CMP: INR163
TP: INR150 (-8%)
Neutral
2019E
58.2
41.4
7.4
21.4
25.3
403.7
5.4
0.3
7.6
0.40
Overall pool of NSL (NNPA+ OSRL+ all other forms of stress) was stable QoQ
at ~14.5%; large relapse into NPA from restructured portfolio (INR9.4b) and
SDR/S4A accounts (8 accounts amounting to INR16.9b). Steel accounted for
28% of overall slippages. This sector already has 68% NPA, and management
does not expect incremental large slippages from this book. Absolute GNPAs
increased 12% QoQ, but remained stable in % terms at 13.7% due to strong
sequential loan growth (11%) and large write-offs (INR11b).
NII grew 21% QoQ to INR13b (in-line), led by NIM improvement of ~40bp
QoQ to 2.5%. NIM was aided by a sharp fall in CoF of ~38bp QoQ.
FY17 highlights:
(1) Operating profit for FY17 grew 13% YoY; however, high
NPL provisions of ~57b led to pre-tax loss. (2) Overall gross advances grew
8.3%, with strong growth in retail loans of ~37.2%.
Other highlights:
(1) Trading gains declined 70% QoQ, driving 15% miss in
other income. (2) CASA ratio declined 180bp QoQ to 30.5% owing to
redemption of temporary SA deposits (-6% QoQ) built up post demon. (3)
CET1 declined 113bp, led by large quantum of losses during the quarter.
Valuation and view:
Sharp rise in slippages continues to remain a concern
for the bank. NPL ageing will result in high expected credit costs in FY18/19.
Return ratios are likely to be sub-optimal at 0.2/5% RoA/RoE, and hence, we
downgrade our earnings by 19% for FY18. Resolutions in key stress sectors
like steel remain a key trigger for the bank. Maintain
Neutral
with a TP of
INR150 (0.4x FY19BV).
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
Subham Banka
(Subham.Banka@MotilalOswal.com); +91 022 6129 1567
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.