22 May 2017
Results Update | Sector: Utilities
Tata Power
Sell
BSE SENSEX
30,465
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,428
TPWR IN
Net Debt to Equity increases to ~3.5x
2,705
Lack of RoE accretive growth and high leverage; Maintain Sell
227.6 / 3.4
n
Tata Power’s (TPWR) 4QFY17 PAT, adjusted for the write-off of INR6.5b
849 / 405
relating to advance paid to DOCOMO for TTSL, was down 36% QoQ to
-3/4/3
INR3.9b (est. INR5.4b) on lower billing in Delhi distribution and higher
242.8
50.1
interest cost. EBITDA (incl. JVs) was down 11% QoQ to INR19.6b. For FY17,
CMP: INR84
TP: INR67(-20%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2017 2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
279.0
341.6
EBITDA
58.5
67.1
PAT
14.0
18.3
EPS (INR)
5.2
6.7
Gr. (%)
21.1
30.7
BV/Sh (INR)
43.5
48.7
RoE (%)
11.2
14.6
RoCE (%)
6.6
6.6
P/E (x)
16.3
12.5
P/BV (x)
1.9
1.7
2019E
358.7
69.5
19.0
7.0
3.8
54.2
13.6
6.5
12.0
1.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
EBITDA (inc. JVs) was up 2% YoY to INR78b, while adj. PAT was up 83% YoY to
INR13.9b on lower tax. Net Debt at INR482b (incl. perpetual securities of
INR15b), represented debt/equity ratio of 3.5x (excl. perpetual securities
which is reported as part of net worth).
n
Standalone:
EBIT (incl. rate regulatory items), adj. for the provision of
INR0.3b for Trombay U-6 plant, was flat YoY due to stricter regulatory norms
and lower regulatory assets. The management highlighted the risk of
Trombay generation PPAs expiring in March 2018; clarity is likely in the next
couple of quarters.
n
CGPL & Coal:
Under-recovery increased from INR0.7/kWh in 3QFY17 to
INR0.86/kWh in 4QFY17. PAT loss was however lower (INR1.4b vs. INR2.4b in
3Q) on FX reversal and lower interest cost (on waiver by parent). Coal mines
EBITDA was up 29% QoQ to INR5.7b (ex-Arutmin) on higher coal prices.
n
Sale of non-core investments:
The management assured progress on sale of
non-core investments in FY18. Stake in Tata Sons is not considered as non-
core.
Lack of RoE accretive growth opportunities and high leverage; Sell
n
TPWR’s net worth is down by 21% since 1HFY17 to INR117b as at the end of
FY17 due to change in accounting of investments (from fair value to cost).
Resultantly, RoEs estimates for FY18-20E now look higher at ~13-14% v/s.
~10-11% earlier. We thus revise our P/BV multiple from 1x earlier to 1.2x.
The TP is revised marginally lower to INR67/sh. from earlier 69/sh. as higher
multiple is offset by lower BV. TPWR is facing slower growth in the regulated
business, risk of expiry of generation PPAs, competition in RE and a highly
leveraged balance sheet. We maintain
Sell
rating.
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523