Alkem Laboratories
BSE SENSEX
31,028
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,595
ALKEM IN
120
263.9 / 4.1
2238 / 1200
-10/-8/31
108
33.0
27 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
CMP: INR1,866
TP: INR1,900(+2%)
Neutral
Weak 4Q; domestic business delivers muted performance
Revenues grew 9% YoY to INR12.5b, missing estimate by 10.8%, primarily due
to weak domestic business growth of ~7%. US business sales stood at USD44m
(v/s USD50m in 3QFY17). EBITDA of INR1.5b declined 4% YoY, with the margin
contracting 160bp YoY (-620bp QoQ) to ~11.9%, mainly due to higher R&D
spend (7.3% of sales v/s normalized rate of ~4-4.5%), muted growth in
domestic business and addition of 400-500 MRs in the acute segment.
Domestic business – weak growth:
Domestic business grew by a muted 7% YoY
to INR8.6b due to a decline in the anti-infective market, demonetization impact
and destocking in the channel due to GST. Despite the impact of GST in the near
term, Alkem expects its domestic business to grow at mid-teens in FY18.
US – sequential decline due to seasonality:
US sales declined 12% QoQ (+20%
YoY) to USD44m due to seasonality (Benzonatate sales goes up in winter). We
expect ramp-up in US business in coming quarters on the back of four ANDA
launches in 4Q and expected high-single-digit launches in FY18.
Key concall takeaways:
a) Net cash at end-4Q stood at INR7.2b. b) R&D as % of
sales stood at 7.3% in 4Q (v/s 5.2% in FY17). c) Impact of GST will be ~2.5% of
domestic sales; mitigation of this impact will depend upon price escalation. d)
R&D guidance of ~6% in FY18. e) Planning to file 12-15 ANDAs in FY18. f) Tax
rate guidance of ~MAT rate in FY18 and 12-15% in FY19 (lower in FY19 due to
annual impact of tax benefit from new Sikkim plant). g) Capex expected to be
~INR6b in FY18 (INR6.27b invested in FY17). h) Trade generics account for
>10% of domestic sales.
Maintain Neutral:
We continue believing that Alkem is the best way to play the
domestic growth story (>70% of revenue and >85% of EBITDA came from India
in FY17). Having said that, at current valuations, the stock offers limited upside
potential. Our target price of INR1,900 is based on 20x FY19E PER (v/s INR1,850
@ 20x 1HFY19E PER).
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
58.5
65.4
76.4
EBITDA
10.0
11.6
13.8
PAT
9.0
9.6
11.3
EPS (INR)
75.7
80.0
94.9
Gr. (%)
7.5
5.8
18.6
BV/Sh (INR)
353.4 415.4 489.0
RoE (%)
23.4
20.8
21.0
RoCE (%)
21.3
18.9
23.1
P/E (x)
24.7
23.3
19.7
P/BV (x)
5.3
4.5
3.8
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.