30 May 2017
4QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Media
SITI Network
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
31,159
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
9,625
SITINET IN
Re-aligning Phase III/IV monetization expectations; Maintain Neutral
872
Operational performance below expectations
27.4 / 0.4
EBITDA (ex-activation) misses estimates:
Consol. EBITDA grew 5% QoQ to
41 / 30
INR580m (est. of INR669m). EBITDA (ex-activation) grew 16% QoQ to
-15/-31/-35
INR96m (est. of INR127m), led by higher content payout. Opex grew 10%
17.2
26.4
QoQ to INR2.67b (est. of INR2.42b). Net losses increased significantly QoQ
CMP: INR31
TP: INR36 (+14%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016
2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
11.9
15.1
17.9
EBITDA
2.0
3.5
4.7
EBITDA#
0.3
1.6
3.8
PAT
-1.6
-0.5
0.1
EPS (INR)
-1.8
-0.5
0.1
Gr. (%)
NM
NM
NM
BV/Sh (INR)
7.2
6.6
6.7
RoE (%)
-23.5
-7.8
1.5
RoCE (%)
-4.1
1.3
4.0
EV/EBITDA
20.6
12.6
9.5
EV/EBITDA#
127.4
27.4
11.8
EV/Sub (INR)
3,156
3,387 3,414
* Based on attributable EBITDA and subs post minority
stake
# (ex-activation)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
to INR649m (est. of INR323m).
Subscription up 9% QoQ, exceeds expectations:
Subscription income grew
9% QoQ to INR1.6b (3% above est. of INR1.55b) as Phase III monetization
picked up. Carriage revenue surprised positively (+9% QoQ) as negative
arbitrage v/s peers narrowed down.
Phase I collections stagnant; broadband disappoints:
Phase I collections
remained largely stagnant at INR105 (v/s INR103 in 3Q). Phase II collections
improved from INR78/subscriber/month to INR82. Phase III/Phase IV
collections stood at INR50/INR25 per sub per month. Broadband revenue
grew 3% QoQ to INR0.27b (est. of INR0.29) as competitive pressure from
RJio kept subscriber additions weak. SITINET added 15k broadband (BB)
subscribers in 4Q, taking the total to 228k.
Box seeding remained healthy; in-line:
SITINET seeded 0.8m set-top boxes
in 4Q (in-line). Management expects to seed ~3m boxes in FY18. We believe
SITINET would exit FY18 with 12m digital subscribers.
FY17 capex at ~INR5b; STB inventory at 1m:
SITINET incurred capex of
INR5b in FY17 and holds an inventory of ~1m set-top boxes.
Re-aligning Phase III/IV monetization expectations; maintain Neutral:
We
expect digital subscriber base to increase from 10m in FY17 to 12.1m in
FY19. SITINET trades at EV/EBITDA (ex-activation/minorities) of 27.4x/11.8x
FY18E/FY19E. We have cut our EBITDA estimates significantly for FY18/FY19
to re-align our Phase III/IV monetization expectations. Maintain
Neutral
with
a revised DCF-based price target of INR36 (earlier INR40).
(INR Million)
FY16
2Q
2,339
6.7
1,943
395
-4.0
16.9
367
348
87
-233
35
-14.9
-315
3Q
3,440
55.2
2,486
954
97.8
27.7
391
351
49
262
2
0.8
147
4Q
3,389
32.4
2,572
818
769.6
24.1
538
357
70
-7
7
-101.3
-15
1Q
2,820
22.7
2,395
425
23.5
15.1
547
297
49
-370
65
-17.7
-536
FY17
2Q
2,890
23.6
2,416
473
19.7
16.4
572
280
24
-355
22
-6.1
-469
FY16
3Q
4QE
2,985 3,255
-13.2
-4.0
2,434 2,676
550
580
-42.4 -29.1
18.4 17.8
625
667
360
338
71
115
-364 -310
-30
135
8.1 -43.6
-263 -649
11,890
8900
2,990
25.1
1,632
1,378
240
220
131
59.6
-16
FY17E
11,949
9,921
2,028
17.0
2,412
1,274
259
-1,399
193
-13.8
-1,792
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Sales
YoY (%)
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
YoY (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Reported Net Profit
1Q
2,297
9.9
1,953
344
0.5
15.0
358
344
24
-334
5
-1.6
-367
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Jay Gandhi
(Jay.Gandhi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1546
Aliasgar Shakir
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5423