Sector Update| 1 June 2017
Automobiles
Maruti Suzuki
CMP: INR7,144
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
MSIL IN
302
2,025/31.6
7249 / 3868
5/22/55
TP: INR8,060 (+13%)
Buy
Vol below expectation 137k units (v/s est. 150k), + 11%YoY
Domestic vols up ~16% YoY driven by UV and mini segment; Exports
declined 36% YoY
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2017 2018E
Sales
680.3 806.6
EBITDA
104.7 127.9
Adj. PAT
74.2 88.9
Adj. EPS (INR)* 248.6 300.0
EPS Gr. (%)
36.6 20.6
BV/Sh. (INR)
1,197 1,390
RoE (%)
20.3 21.2
RoCE (%)
27.3 28.3
Payout (%)
37.1 34.7
Valuations
P/E (x)
28.7 23.8
P/CE (x)
21.3 17.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
18.0 14.2
Div. Yield (%)
1.0
1.2
*Cons.
2019E
937.2
154.5
110.2
370.9
23.6
1,634
22.3
29.4
32.9
19.3
14.8
11.3
1.4
MSIL’s May-17 wholesales negatively surprised and came in at 136,962 units (v/s est
149,650 units), 11.3% YoY growth (-9.4% MoM).
Domestic volumes grew by ~16% YoY (-10% MoM) to 130.7k (v/s est 140k) led by
growth in UV and mini segment. The miss was primarily led by normalization of Dzire
Tour (Apr-17 volume – 8,606 units v/s avg of 2.9k units in FY17), Swift (Apr-17 - 23,802
units v/s avg of 14k units in FY17) and transition of new CIAZ to Nexa dealerships
(inventory filling). Also new Dzire wholesale was only for part of May.
Retail volume grew at double digit, implying estimated inventory of under 4 weeks.
Mini segment recovery continued with ~18% growth – second consecutive month of
growth.
The compact segment grew by 4% YoY led by normalization of Swift hatchback and
Dzire Tour.
Mid-size segment led by Ciaz decreased ~9% YoY due to transition to Nexa channel.
Ciaz clocked in 4,724 units.
UVs continued their momentum, with a ~66% YoY growth, primarily aided by
incremental volumes of Vitarra Brezza, which continues to enjoy a waiting period of 4-
5 months.
Export volumes recorded ~36% YoY decline to 6,286 units (v/s est 9,600 units).
The stock trades at 23.8x/19.3x FY18E/19E consolidated EPS of ~INR300/371. Maintain
Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for May-17
YoY
Company Sales
May-17 May-16
YoY (%)
chg
11.3
3.5
18.1
4.3
-8.9
66.3
15.5
-36.3
Maruti Suzuki
136,962 123,034
LCVs
428
0
Vans
12,593 12,164
Mini Segment
39,089 33,105
Compact (incl Dzire
Tour)
51,234 49,109
Mid Size - CIAZ
4,724
5,188
UV (Ertiga, S-Cross) 22,608 13,596
Total Domestic
130,676 113,162
Export
6,286
9,872
MoM
MoM
Apr-17
(%) chg
151,215 -9.4
411
13,938
-9.6
38,897
0.5
63,584
7,024
20,638
144,492
6,723
-19.4
-32.7
9.5
-9.6
-6.5
FY18YTD FY17YTD
(%)
chg
288,177 249,603 15.5
839
0
26,531 26,684 -0.6
77,986 65,011 20.0
114,818 97,982 17.2
11,748 10,890 7.9
43,246 29,640 45.9
275,168 230,207 19.5
13,009 19,396 -32.9
FY18
estimate
1,776,723
1,500
164,170
453,989
721,668
72,182
231,693
1,645,202
131,521
Residual
Residual
Monthly
Gr. (%) Growth (%)
Run rate
13.3
12.9
148,855
-55.9
66
8.0
9.8
13,764
9.7
7.7
37,600
23.4
12.0
18.4
13.9
6.0
24.6
12.8
13.5
12.8
13.2
60,685
6,043
18,845
137,003
11,851
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Deep Shah
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1533;
Jigar Shah
(Jigar.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1534
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.