2 June 2017
Hindustan Unilever
BSE SENSEX
31,273
S&P CNX
9,654
Update
| Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR1,087
TP: INR1,215(+12%)
Strengthening the Core
Higher premiumization to drive earnings
Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017
2018E
2019E
HUVR IN
2164.246
1101 / 783
13/11/9
1937.3
28.9
1208
32.8
Net Sales
EBITDA (Rs b)
Net Profit
EPS
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
313.0
60.5
42.5
19.6
1.9
30.8
55.4
35.3
65.6
87.3
348.3
70.0
49.3
22.8
16.1
31.8
47.7
34.2
72.8
96.6
395.0
82.3
58.4
27.0
18.4
33.6
40.3
32.4
82.5
109.6
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16
67.2
5.7
13.3
13.9
67.2
5.8
13.1
13.9
67.2
4.8
14.2
13.8
We attended HUVR annual investor meet 2017. Following are the key takeaways:
Clear focus on thought leadership far ahead of peers and improving
accessibility of their core brands in each segment.
Far more emphasis on premiumization across segments than earlier.
Strengthening the Naturals portfolio across segments keeping
Lever Ayush
as
the master brand in addition to other specific natural brands like Indulekha,
St’ Ives and the new skin and hair brand Citra.
Zero based budgeting across all areas will we believe yield far more in terms
of margins than we had anticipated, particularly when allied with strong
premiumization.
Increase in sampling and sachets to drive market development of premium
products and formats of the future.
Building strong capabilities across channels.
A confluence of positives including expectations of normal monsoon,
moderate inflation, government schemes aiding consumption growth, weak
base of the past three years, end of commodity price deflation, continued
premiumization, and cost savings is leading to outlook for rural-focused
companies being brighter than in the past few years
For HUVR, the salience of rural sales is one of the highest, brand portfolio is
the widest, and distribution reach is the broadest among peers, making it
uniquely positioned to take advantage of the confluence of positive factors.
We expect earnings CAGR of 17% over FY17-19, far superior than the 6-11%
for the past 3/5/10 years. This along with best-of-the-breed return ratios and
dividend yield justifies HUVR’s premium valuations. The stock trades at 40x
FY19E EPS. We reiterate Buy with a price target of INR1,215 (45x FY19E EPS;
5% premium to 3-year average).
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Hind. Unilever
Sensex - Rebased
1,150
1,050
950
850
750
Delivery and Strategy going forward:
FY17 was a challenging year with
markets remaining subdued (urban and rural), commodity cost inching up and
extreme climatic conditions. In the latter half of the year when the markets
were just witnessing an uptick in demand, demonetization pulled the demand
back. Even in this tough environment HUVR has delivered a resilient
performance of 4% USG and 1% UVG with 40bp improvement in margins.
Going forward things looks even more positive for rural-focused consumer
companies like HUVR than in the past four years (“Juggernaut
moves
forward”).
For the company’s core strategy remains the same but with
renewed focus.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.