Petronet LNG
BSE SENSEX
31,076
S&P CNX
9,578
16 June 2017
Update
| Sector:
Oil & Gas
CMP: INR427
For the long haul
TP: INR546(+23%)
Buy
Volume growth to continue for a long time
Though PLNG witnessed 5.8% volume CAGR over FY12-17, its volumes grew 25% in
FY17, aided by favorable LNG prices and Dahej expansion. To better capture sporadic
increases in offtake, as PLNG expands its Dahej facility and ramps up Kochi
utilization, we believe a 3-5 year view on its prospects is desirable.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
PLNG IN
750
459 / 275
-8/-4/36
323.7
5.0
695
50.0
We expect a volume CAGR of 10% over the next three years (FY17-20E) for PLNG. Low
LNG prices along with lack of domestic gas availability and huge unmet demand is
likely to result in sustained volume growth for PLNG for a long time to come.
Additional factors contributing to our Buy recommendation: (1) lack of competition,
(2) Dahej being the most economical facility, (3) firm contracts at Dahej and Kochi,
and (4) expansion of gas pipeline network across India.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
246.2 275.4 343.9
Net Sales
25.9
31.4
39.4
EBITDA
17.1
19.7
27.0
PAT
22.7
26.3
35.9
EPS (INR)
102.7
15.7
36.6
Gr. (%)
107.9 126.8 152.7
BV/Sh (INR)
23.2
22.4
25.7
RoE (%)
20.2
19.8
24.2
RoCE (%)
18.8
16.5
12.1
P/E (x)
4.0
3.4
2.8
P/BV (x)
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16
Promoter
50.0
50.0
50.0
DII
17.7
16.3
16.1
FII
19.4
21.7
21.6
Others
12.9
12.0
12.3
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Petronet LNG
Sensex - Rebased
450
400
350
300
250
LNG imports to rise; Petronet LNG to be biggest beneficiary
Amidst constrained domestic gas availability, LNG imports accounted for ~50%
of total gas sales in India in FY17 compared with 32% in FY14. Even in an
optimistic scenario of domestic gas production growing at a CAGR of 10.5%
over FY17-22, we expect LNG consumption to rise at a CAGR of 10%. PLNG is
best placed to benefit from this rise in demand.
While existing LNG terminals face their own problems, we do not see much
competition from upcoming LNG terminals. Dahej’s brownfield expansion
makes it the cheapest alternative for LNG imports.
Access to large parts of India; the cheapest alternative
PLNG’s Dahej terminal is already connected to HVJ, Dahej-Uran-Panvel-Dabhol,
Dabhol-Bangalore, and East-West pipelines.
Once the Jagdishpur-Haldia pipeline comes up, it will also have access beyond
Jagdishpur. Combined with the upcoming Mehsana-Bhatinda-Srinagar and
Mallavaram-Bhilwara pipelines, it would have access to large parts of India.
Valuation and recommendation
Dahej is already expanding to 17.5mmtpa in two years. Given the connectivity
of Dahej to a larger part of India through increased pipeline access, further
expansion to 20mmtpa looks imminent.
Assuming 3% terminal growth and WACC of 11%, we arrive at a one-year target
price of INR546 (upside of 23%) and a three-year price target of INR767.
Buy.
Swarnendu Bhushan
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1566
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.