30 June 2017
Update
| Sector:
Oil & Gas
ONGC
Buy
BSE SENSEX
30,858
S&P CNX
9,504
CMP: INR158
TP: INR195 (+24%)
Lowering crude oil price estimates
Stock price correction provides an opportunity to buy
Crude oil prices decline despite production cut extension
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
ONGC IN
12,833
212 / 141
-9/-33/-5
2,335.7
34.4
1453
31.9
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
FY17 FY18E
1421
1561
Sales
471
606
EBITDA
211
230
NP
16.4
17.9
EPS (Rs)
20.8
8.9
EPS Gr. (%)
172
179
BV/Sh. (Rs)
10.4
10.2
RoE (%)
8.5
8.9
RoCE (%)
9.6
8.8
P/E (x)
0.9
0.9
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
4.8
3.8
Div. Yield (%)
3.8
6.3
FY19E
1771
703
259
20.1
12.6
186
11.1
9.5
7.8
0.8
3.3
7.1
On 25 May 2017, OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to extend oil
production cut until March 2018 in a bid to boost oil prices.
Despite this, oil prices have declined due to rising production from Nigeria and
Libya – the two OPEC members exempt from the cut.
In May 2017, oil production in Libya increased by more than 240kbpd to
780kbpd and in Nigeria by 140kbpd to 1.52mbpd.
The increased shale drilling and the revival in oil production from
Libya/Nigeria are expected to lead to higher-than-expected slowdown in
inventory draws in 2017. It presents a risk of inventory normalization not
being achieved by the time the OPEC cut ends in March next year.
We expect crude oil prices to hover near USD50/bbl until there is evidence of
a decline in the US rig count, an increase in inventory draws or additional
OPEC production cut. Thus, we reduce our crude oil price estimates to
USD50/55/bbl for FY18/19 v/s USD55/60/bbl earlier.
Management’s conscious efforts on cost efficiencies through lower workover
and water injection have resulted in opex coming down from USD7.4/boe in
FY16 to USD6.3/boe in FY17. We expect this cost efficiency to sustain.
ONGC is expected to witness gas production growth of 10-15% annually for
the next five years, led by the Daman, C26, S1, Vashishta and Bassein fields.
Also, oil production is expected to increase from the nominated fields like
WO16, Vasai East and Ratna & R-series.
We do not expect any subsidy burden to be levied on ONGC as long as oil
prices are below USD65/bbl. However, realization may be capped if oil prices
move above that level.
Crude oil prices have declined sharply due to short-term imbalance in the
global oil market. We expect crude oil prices to increase as the market
rebalances, and note that ONGC is a direct play on crude oil price.
With OPEC and non-OPEC agreeing to extend oil production cut until March
2018, we expect stability in crude oil prices and also in the company’s
realizations. For FY18/19, we model Brent of USD50/55/bbl and expect EPS of
INR17.9/20.1.
ONGC’s stock price has declined ~11% in June, led by a fall in crude price and
INR appreciation. This correction is an opportunity to buy, in our view.
We value the stock at INR195 using SOTP valuation. The stock trading at 7.8x
FY19E EPS of INR20.1 and at EV of 3.3x FY19E EBITDA. Maintain
Buy.
ONGC is well placed
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Mar-17 Dec-16 Mar-16
Promoter
68.1
68.9
68.9
DII
12.0
11.7
11.9
FII
6.3
5.8
5.6
Others
13.7
13.6
13.6
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
ONGC
Sensex - Rebased
210
190
170
150
130
Stock price correction provides an opportunity to buy
Swarnendu Bhushan
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1566
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.