Sector Update | 10 July 2017
Financials
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IDFC–Shriram: Creating a large financial conglomerate
Swap ratio key for SHTF and SCUF shareholders
IDFC Bank and Shriram Group have announced their intent to explore a merger during the
course of a 90-day exclusivity arrangement. During this period, the boards of both
companies will apply for regulatory approvals. The merger will place IDFC Limited as a
holding company with three subsidiaries: (1) SHTF as a standalone NBFC subsidiary, which
gets delisted, (2) IDFC Bank (IDFCB; into which SCUF will merge), and (3) insurance
businesses (life and general), in which IDFC Limited will hold 75% stake. The company has
commented that after all approvals, it will take 12 months to complete the transaction.
IDFCB is the key beneficiary, in our view. IDFC Limited would get a strong operating
company post-merger. We believe the deal would require a very favorable swap ratio for
Shriram group investors. Key risks: regulatory approvals, execution risk, extent of holdco
discount and meeting RBI requirement of minimum shareholding by IDFC ltd in IDFCB of
40%.
IDFCBK: Financial Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2018E 2019E 2020E
NII
24.0
29.4
34.5
OP
19.3
23.6
26.6
NP
11.9
14.2
15.5
NIM (%)
2.1
2.1
2.2
EPS (INR)
3.5
4.2
4.6
EPS Gr. (%)
17.1
18.6
9.5
BV/Sh. INR
45.9
49
53
ABV/Sh. INR
42.9
46
49
RoE (%)
7.9
8.8
9.0
RoA (%)
0.9
0.9
0.9
P/E(X)
18.5
15.6
14.3
P/BV (X)
1.4
1.3
1.2
Shriram Transport Finance:
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2018E 2019E
Net Inc.
60.4
68.2
PPP
48.3
54.6
PAT
17.6
22.0
Con. PAT
17.8
22.3
EPS (INR)
77.4
96.8
Con.EPS (INR
78.5
98.5
BV/Sh (INR)
555 634.8
BV (INR)
564 646.0
RoE (%)
14.7
16.3
Payout (%)
18.6
17.4
Valuations
P/Cons.EPS.x
13.8
11.0
P/Cons.BV. x
1.9
1.7
Div. Yld (%)
1.1
1.3
Shriram City Union Finance:
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March 2018E 2019E
NII
33.8
40.0
PPP
21.3
25.4
PAT
8.8
11.3
EPS (INR)
133
171
EPS Gr. (%)
57
29
BV/Sh. INR
874
1019
RoA (%)
3.6
4.0
RoE (%)
16.2
18.1
Payout (%)
16
15
Valuations
P/E (x)
18.6
14.5
P/BV (x)
2.8
2.4
Div. Yld. %
0.7
0.9
IDFCB – win-win
The merger will give IDFC Bank (IDFCB) access to 2,000 touch points and 10m+
customers of the two Shriram group NBFCs, which will help it to generate retail
deposits and fee income. Further, the merger will help ensure that IDFCB, with
access to SCUF’s loan book, can meet PSL requirements with ease (50+% PSL
compliant). IDFCB has INR494b of loans and SCUF has INR230b of loan book. IDFCB’s
savings on the negative carry of PSL (~INR3b) is expected to outweigh SCUF’s
negative carry on CRR/SLR (INR1.7b). IDFCB is already carrying excess SLR on its
balance sheet; hence, CRR/SLR should not impact profitability. Post-merger, IDFCB
will have ~0.9% market share in loans. Further, there are low hanging fruits on opex
(high employee base) in SCUF with the help of IDFCB technology can be extracted.
Execution challenges, technology integration and HR challenges would be the key
risks.
2020E
78.2
62.9
25.8
25.9
113.9
114.1
728.7
740.1
16.7
17.4
9.5
1.5
1.6
SCUF – swap ratio is key
The biggest benefit for SCUF will be access to low cost deposits. In the near to
medium term, organic growth would have remained healthy for SCUF and the
liability side would not have been a concern. However, over a long period, doing
lending business under a banking platform is more beneficial. Since IDFCB will be a
major beneficiary of this merger, we expect favorable swap ratio for SCUF
shareholders.
2020E
47.2
30.1
13.3
202
18
1193
4.0
18.3
14
12.2
2.1
1.0
IDFC Limited – will holdco discount narrow?
IDFC Limited will remain a holdco for all businesses. Apart from existing AMC, PE,
IDF, Securities business and stake in the bank, insurance business and SHTF will be
the key additions post-merger. Addition of a strong operating cash flow generating
entity as a 100% subsidiary will be a key benefit for IDFC Limited and might reduce
the holdco discount. Post-merger structure will be more like HDFC Limited, with the
key differences being: (a) housing finance business at HDFC is done at parent level,
rather than 100% subsidiary, like CV financing for IDFC, and (b) IDFC will have
8 August 2016
1
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Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
/
Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Subham Banka
(Subham.Banka@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1567 /
Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1544