India Strategy | Get on track please !
Thematic | July 2017
The Big Leap
to a formal economy
Volume 2.2
Volume 1
Ground Reality
Jewelry
Sandeep Gupta
(S.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5544
Somil Shah
(Somil.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3312 4975

Thematic | Jewelry
Contents
Shift likely to remain gradual ............................................................................................... 3
The large Indian jewelry industry .......................................................................................... 4
Organized market share has been gradually rising ................................................................ 9
GST & demonetization–will it change industry dynamics? .................................................. 11
Companies .......................................................................................................................... 17
Titan:
India’s leading player in branded jewelry.......................................................... 18
PC Jeweller:
2nd largest listed jewelry retailer in India ............................................... 20
TBZ:
A 150-year old brand ........................................................................................... 22
12 July 2017
2

Thematic | Jewelry
The Big Leap
Shift likely to remain gradual
Pace can intensify with stringent cash transaction norms
India is on a structural path towards a formal economy, (please refer to our
inaugural issue of “The Big Leap” series) prodded by a string of government
initiatives such as demonetization, GST, and Aadhar-linking. While these are
steps in the right direction, we believe the shift will be prompt for some
sectors, gradual for others, and might remain challenging for a few.
In this edition, we focus on the ~INR3t Indian Jewelry industry, where we
believe the shift will be gradual. A fragmented industry, it is dominated by the
unorganized segment (estimated at INR1.2t; 70% of domestic jewelry sales),
and changes in administrative procedures under the GST regime using
technology are unlikely to accelerate the shift towards organized players.
Yet, a material reduction in the threshold for cash purchases without identity
proof could be the catalyst, and would benefit large organized players like
Titan, P C Jewellers, Malabar Gold & Diamonds, Kalyan Jewellers, and
Joyalukkas among others.
Significant opportunity to formalize the sector
Gems and jewelry have historically been a preferred mode of accumulating illicit
wealth in India. Given the high faith in family jewelers (usually unorganized) that
have been offering competitive pricing and their expertise in traditional jewelry
over generations, the sector has come to be dominated by the unorganized
trade, estimated at ~INR1.2t (70% of overall domestic industry revenue).
However, with rising urbanization, change in government policies & consumer
preferences, and emergence of strong brands, there has been a steady increase
in the market share of organized players from 10% in 2000 to 30% in 2016.
Big Leap Report –
Volume 2.1
Administrative policy changes under GST unlikely to formalize jewelry trade
The Indian government is taking initiatives to shift trade in favor of the formal
economy. GST, with its new administrative procedures and technology, is yet
another step to formalize the trade. This presents an opportunity to investors to
take advantage by investing in sectors likely to benefit.
However, we believe that with a small B2C supply chain, the Jewelry sector can
continue to operate end-to-end in the parallel economy. Changes in the
administrative procedures and technology platform are unlikely to alter the
trajectory of shift of trade towards the formal economy.
Significant reduction in cash transaction limit needed to drive the shift
We believe that revealing of the identity of the buyer will be the key to check
the investment of illicit wealth in the sector. A significant reduction in the
threshold limit for cash purchases (without identification proof) could be a key
catalyst to accelerate the shift toward formal trade.
12 July 2017
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Thematic | Jewelry
The large Indian jewelry industry
India’s INR3t Gems and Jewelry industry is one of the largest in the world, and caters
to both exports (~44%) and domestic demand (~56%).
However, the sector has been import-dependent due to limited mines in India for key
inputs – gold, diamonds, and other precious/semi-precious stones.
The industry is fragmented, with more than 0.5m players, and is largely dominated by
small and mid-size retailers. However, over the last two decades, regional and
national-level players have been gaining share.
Indian Gems & Jewelry industry – one of the largest in the world
Indian Gems and Jewelry
industry, at ~INR3t, is one
of the largest in the world,
with ~29% share in global
jewelry consumption
The Indian Gems and Jewelry (G&J) industry, estimated at ~INR3t, is one of the
largest in the world, with a 29% share in global jewelry consumption.
The industry is highly fragmented, with more than 0.5m gems and jewelry
players across the country. It provides employment to nearly 2.5m people.
The cultural diversity of India has led to a large variety of customer preferences
across the country. To cater to the regional preferences, many jewelry
manufacturing hubs have developed in India.
Exhibit 1: Major jewelry manufacturing hubs in India
Source: A. T. Kearney analysis, MOSL
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Thematic | Jewelry
Industry revenues – a blend of domestic consumption and exports
The Indian Gems and Jewelry (G&J) industry caters to both domestic and export
demand. While exports constitute 44% of the overall industry revenue, domestic
consumption constitutes a larger part of the revenue pie at ~56%.
Exhibit 2: Exports account for a huge chunk of the industry
Export, 44%
Domestic Gems
and Jewellery,
56%
*for 2013
Source: FICCI, MOSL
Jewelry – a big contributor to forex earnings
G&J industry contributes
10-12% of the country’s
total exports trade
The Indian G&J sector is a big forex earner for India and currently contributes
10-12% of total exports. Since 2004, it has earned over USD369b (INR19,024b)
of foreign exchange.
G&J export revenue is estimated at ~USD40b, of which ~55% is from cut and
polished / rough diamonds and the balance from jewelry / coins and medallions.
The Indian diamond industry has grown from its small origins in the 50s. India
has established itself as the world’s largest manufacturing center of cut and
polished diamonds, contributing 60% of the world’s supply in terms of value,
85% in terms of volume, and 92% in terms of pieces.
India is one of the largest gold jewelry exporters in the world. In FY16, Indian
gold jewelry shipments came to ~USD9b, with around half delivered to India’s
largest jewelry export destination, the UAE.
Exhibit 4: Significant exports to developing countries (%)
Others, 6.2
Developing
countries,
38.2
OECD
countries,
33.2
Exhibit 3: Diamond contributes > 50% of G&J exports
Rough
Silver
Diamonds Jewellery
3%
8%
Gold
medallion
and coins
Others
13%
2%
Cut and
Polished
diamonds
52%
Gold
Jewellery
22%
Source: World gold council, MOSL
Eastern
Europe, 1.1
OPEC
countries,
21.3
Source: Industry, MOSL
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Thematic | Jewelry
India has a large domestic gems and jewelry market
The domestic G&J market is estimated at ~INR1.7t and is highly fragmented. The
industry is dominated by standalone jewelers and medium-size retailers.
However, over the last 15 years, large regional and national-level retailers have
been taking market share from standalone jewelers and mid-size retailers.
Exhibit 5: Unorganized players dominate domestic Jewelry market
The domestic gems and
jewelry market is ~INR1.7t,
of which ~70% is
unorganized
Organized, 30%
INR1.7t
Unorganized, 70%
Source: World gold council, MOSL
Industry remains heavily dependent on imported raw materials
There are three primary inputs for making jewelry – gold, diamonds/precious
stones, and labor.
Exhibit 6: Elements in making jewelry
Gold
Diamonds/ precious stones
Making charges
Source: MOSL
Currently, India has very little captive supply of gold, diamonds, and other
precious / semi-precious stones. Hence, it remains import dependent.
Gold is a primary raw material for m anufacturing jewelry. Gold and jewelry are
used both for consumption and investment.
In FY16, India imported ~675.5 tons of gold. Only nominated banks, nominated
agencies or bullion banks, and select star and premier trading houses and export
oriented units (EOUs) can import gold under the current regulations.
Hence, most gold is imported through a handful of bodies and is largely
organized and consolidated among a few players.
6
I. GOLD
Gold demand is primarily
met through imports, which
are largely organized and
consolidated among few
players
12 July 2017

Thematic | Jewelry
Exhibit 7: Who can import gold in India
Axis Bank
Bank of Baroda
Bank of India
Bank of Nova Scotia
Corporation Bank
Federal Bank Ltd
HDFC Bank Ltd
ICICI Bank Ltd
Indian Overseas Bank
IndusInd Bank Ltd
Banks
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd
Karur Vysya Bank Ltd
Oriental Bank of Commerce
PNB
South Indian Bank Ltd
State Bank of Hyderabad
State Bank of India
Union Bank of India
Yes Bank Ltd
The Ratnakar Bank Limited
Source: World Gold Council, MOSL
Trading houses/agencies
Metals and Minerals Trading
Council (G&J EPC)
EOU and SEZ gems and Jewelry
Corporation Ltd (MMTC)
units, for their own consumption
Handicraft and Handloom
Premier Trading Houses
Export Corporation (HHEC)
State Trading Corporation (STC)
Project and Equipment
Star Trading Houses (only for the
Corporation of India Ltd (PEC)
gems and Jewelry sector)
STCL Ltd
MSTC Ltd
Diamond India Limited (DIL)
Gems & Jewelry Export
Promotion
Exhibit 8: Gold value chain in India
Sourcing
(mining and
imports) Refining
Trading
Manufacturing Retailing
Consumer
Consumption
Limited
mining
Private and
government
refiners
Imports
through
nominated
banks,
nominated
agencies,
select star &
premium
trading
agencies
Traders,
Large, organized
National and
Consumption
jewellers, or
Jewelry
regional Jewelry demand for
manufacturers
manufacturers
chains focusing
Jewelry (high
largely catering
primarily on
value-added
to consumption Jewelry
products,
demand
consumption
fashion wear)
demand
Commodity
Unorganized
Local jewellers
Investment
exchanges
manufacturers
focusing on
demand for
catering to both both
physical gold
investment and consumption
(low value-
consumption
and investment added Jewelry,
demand
demand
bars and coins)
Coin
Banks retailing
manufacturers
bars and coins,
other dealers
Financial industry
for gold-based products
Investment
Banks, mutual
funds,
exchanges
Investment
demand for
gold-backed
financial
products
Source: A. T. Kearney analysis
12 July 2017
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Thematic | Jewelry
Besides official imports,
smuggling and recycling are
the other major sources
Besides official imports, smuggling and recycling are the other major sources of
meeting the gold requirement.
II. Diamonds and precious stones
Diamonds are also imported
into India; however, they
are imported as roughs and
then processed in India
India does not have any significant mines for diamonds and other
precious/semi-precious stones. It imports rough diamonds in bulk from trading
hubs like Belgium, Israel, UAE and Hong Kong among others.
Rough stones are sourced from DTC holders via the official channel.
India is one of the largest cutting and polishing centers in the world.
14 out of
every 15 diamonds set in jewelry worldwide are processed in India.
Surat, Navsari, Bhavnagar and Amreli are the diamond
manufacturing/processing hubs whereas Mumbai is the diamond trading hub.
India is the world leader in diamonds, both in quantity and value terms.
12 July 2017
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Thematic | Jewelry
Organized market share has been gradually rising
The domestic Jewelry industry is largely unorganized. Unorganized players account for
~70% share of the market. This is because (a) jewelry is a preferred mode of keeping
illicit wealth, and (b) small/mid-size family jewelers enjoy high trust, and offer
competitive pricing and expertise in traditional jewelry.
However, over the last 15 years, rising urbanization, change in government policies
and consumer preferences, and growing faith in large brands have helped organized
players to gain market share from ~10% to ~30%.
A fragmented market dominated by unorganized players
Unorganized players
continue to dominate
domestic jewelry industry;
however, their market
share has declined from
90% to 70% in the last 15
years
The retail jewelry market in India has for long remained highly fragmented and
dominated by unorganized players.
In FY00, ~90% of India’s gold retailers were “unorganized” – small, standalone
retailers, often family jewelers. Unorganized retailers still dominate the market,
but the share of organized retailers has trebled to 30%.
We believe that the unorganized segment has remained large due to (a) gold
and jewelry being a preferred mode of keeping illicit wealth, (b) historical
government policies restricting gold holdings (repealed since 1990); however,
psychological effect remains, (c) high difference in making charges of organized
and unorganized players, (d) high trust on small/mid-size family jewelers, and
(d) higher demand for traditional jewelry, where unorganized players have
expertise and decades of experience.
Exhibit 10: … but gradually rising over the years
Organized
30%
Exhibit 9: Organized market share very small…
Organized,
10%
2000
Unorganize,
90%
2016
Unorganized
70%
Source: Industry, MOSL
Organized players gradually gaining market share
Over the last 15 years, organized players have gradually been gaining share. The
shift of trade is primarily due to growing urbanization, change in consumer
preferences and government policies, increase in reach of organized players,
and growing faith in large brands.
Proactive measures by organized players like introduction of sophisticated
advertising and sales campaigns, effective inventory management systems,
innovative customer outreach and building of domestic and international brands
are also aiding the shift in favor of the organized segment.
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Thematic | Jewelry
Exhibit 11:
Reasons for shift in trade to organized segment over the years
Higher
Urbanisation
Government
policies
trust
Change in
consumer
preferences
Brand
creation
Store
addition
Innovative
customer
outreach
Source: MOSL
Exhibit 12: Store additions
rising over the years
(Nos)
Titan
PCJ
227
286
209
150
163
179
198
17
24
30
41
50
58
75
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 13:
Significant presence of regional/national bands (FY16)
Company
Titan
PC Jewelers
Shubh Retail
Malabar Gold and Diamond
Kalyan
Joyalukkas
Stores
227
58
80
80
68
58
Cities/Towns
120
48
NA
69
59
53
Source: World gold council, MOSL
12 July 2017
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Thematic | Jewelry
GST & demonetization–will it change industry dynamics?
The Indian government has taken various initiatives (such as demonetization and GST)
to shift trade to the formal economy.
Our discussions with jewelry industry participants indicate that the administrative
procedural changes under the GST regime are unlikely to lead to a material
acceleration in the shift towards organized trade.
However, materially reducing the cash transaction limit and making it mandatory to
furnish identity proof for high-value jewelry purchases could accelerate the shift.
GST and demonetization – big drivers of shift towards formal economy
India is set to see a shift in favor of the organized (formal) segment, with the
government taking a number of initiatives to curb the shadow economy.
Demonetization of high-value currency notes has created fear among
unorganized players, as transactions in this space were mostly cash-based and
unaccounted. Even in the recent budget announcements, cash transactions of
INR0.2m or more have been prohibited.
Also, with GST implementation nearing reality, the organized segment is well
poised to confront the high presence of unorganized (informal) players.
The impending shift could present attractive investment opportunities. Yet, our
discussions with experts and sector participants highlight that the shift will be
prompt for some sectors, gradual for others, and challenging for a few.
With GST at the backdrop,
our discussions with experts
and sector participants
highlight that the shift to
formal trade will be prompt
for some sectors, gradual
for others and challenging
for a few.
Will the drivers be effective for the Jewelry industry too?
As discussed in our previous report (click
here to access),
to analyze the pace of
the shift (to organized) for each sector, one has to carefully consider the
administrative/procedural changes and the tax rates under GST.
We believe the following measures can potentially accelerate the shift toward
formal trade: (a) reducing threshold limit for exemption from indirect taxes, (b)
tracking flow of GST credit in the entire value chain by using technology
platforms, (c) ensuring availability of seamless input credit, and (d) reducing
overall effective tax rates.
Measures that could lead to shift to organized trade
Better
Enforcement
Reduction in threshold limits
Through technology-enabled platform
Through availability of input credit
Reduction in overall effective tax rate
Better
Compliance
Source: MOSL
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Thematic | Jewelry
To estimate the pace of shift to formal economy for each sector, one needs to
look at: (a) the supply chain the sector works with, (b) operational nuances of
players in the unorganized segment, and (c) how government initiatives will
change the way in which unorganized segment players operate.
Exhibit 14: Critical determinants of shift to organized trade
Source: MOSL
Short B2C supply chain may continue to be unorganized under GST
To determine the probability of shift in trade from unorganized to organized, it
is imperative to understand the supply chain in which the entity operates. We
note that any break in the organized chain leads to the beginning of
unorganized trade. We believe that in the GST regime, a conversion to organized
in the B2B chain will be relatively easy as compared with the B2C chain.
We believe the shift to organized trade in short B2C chains (where
manufacturers/service providers source raw materials/inputs from the
unorganized market, and continue supplying in unorganized manner throughout
the supply chain) will be difficult.
This is primarily due to the fact that only businesses can register on the GST
network and claim the benefit of input credit. End-consumers will not have any
direct benefits for being part of the organized chain. Also, most consumers are
indifferent to choosing between organized and unorganized players; the focus is
more on pricing.
Also, in the Jewelry industry, we believe it is demand for ‘unorganized goods’
that drives supply. The customer is habituated to parking illicit wealth in gems
and jewelry. Since the customer demand is for jewelry in exchange for cash,
business participants looking to generate extra revenue offer suitable solutions
to meet this demand.
12 July 2017
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Thematic | Jewelry
Modalities of circumventing taxes in Gems and Jewelry industry
Smuggling, managing input
output ratio, and ‘bill to
ship to’ mechanism are key
facilitators to run the
unorganized trade
Our discussions with various sector participants suggest that the Jewelry
industry stems from two primary industries: (1) Gold, and (2) Diamonds and
other Precious Stones.
To understand how unorganized trade happens in Jewelry, let us understand
how this industry sources raw materials from these two primary industries.
Gold finds its way into unorganized trade in multiple ways
India has very limited captive production of gold, and hence, is primarily
dependent on imports.
We note that besides formal imports, smuggling and recycling of old gold are
the other two primary sources of meeting the country’s demand.
While most of the smuggled and recycled gold continues to be part of the
unorganized trade, our discussions with trade participants suggest that even
some portion of the formally imported gold finds its way to the unorganized
jewelry trade.
Exhibit 15: Sourcing of gold in Indian markets
GOLD VALUE
CHAIN
Imports through
formal Channel
Smuggling
Recycling
Official trade
Informal trade using
"Bill to ship to"
Fake
exports
Multiple Fake
retail invoices
Source: MOSL
Smuggling accounts for 15-20% of gold demand
Gold smuggling increased
significantly post 2013 on
increase in customs duty to
10%
According to the World Gold Council, ~119 tonnes (total demand: 668 tonnes) of
gold is smuggled into India annually. Of this, 65–75% comes in by air, 20-25% by
sea, and 5-10% by land.
Bullion import regulations encourage unofficial flows into India. The Gold
Control Act created a lively market in smuggled gold, but its repeal in 1990 saw
unofficial imports collapse.
In 2013, to control ballooning gold imports, the government gradually increased
import duty, which eventually reached 10%. This was followed by the 80:20 rule,
which is repealed now. These measures created significant market distortions,
13
12 July 2017

Thematic | Jewelry
resulting in a surge in domestic gold premiums. It became very profitable to
smuggle gold into India.
Most of the gold flown into India comes from the Middle East, notably the UAE,
and is carried out by low income workers returning home. In exchange for their
services, they receive carrier fees and a sponsored air ticket. Smuggling via land
or sea routes occurs through porous borders with neighbors.
In the first half of 2016, in response to the 1% manufacturing excise duty,
smuggling activity from Thailand also increased.
Exhibit 16: Smuggling increased as government hiked customs duty in 2013 (Tonnes)
225
150
119
8
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: World gold council
Gold demand is sourced through recycling
Gold recycling remains one
of the facilitators of
unorganized trade
Recycling is an important source of supply for jewelers. Recycled gold plays an
important role in India’s gold supply, fulfilling Indian jewelry fabrication needs
since 1990. Recycling is generally done from gold sourced from:
Gold exchanged for jewelry:
In price-sensitive markets, consumers often
exchange their gold jewelry, bars or coins for new pieces of gold jewelry.
The only cost to them is the making charge. This mechanism provides a
significant flow of gold into the jewelry industry.
Gold sold for cash:
Gold is often sold by households to raise cash. In such
cases, jewelers generally deduct 2-5% of the value.
Exhibit 17: Gold recycling over the years (tonnes)
300
255
210
205
180
180
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: World Gold Council, MOSL
12 July 2017
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Thematic | Jewelry
Formal gold imports also enter the informal jewelry supply chain
Our discussions with the trade channel highlight that even some of the formally
imported gold finds its way into the informal chain. This primarily happens in
what is called “bill to ship to” mechanism – the physical delivery of the goods in
made to someone else and the goods are billed to a third party. This happens in
two ways:
“Bill to ship to” mechanism
is a popular way to source
gold from formal trade to
unorganized jewelry trade
Fake exports
One of the mechanisms prevalent in the industry is what is popularly known as
paper exports. Bills are generated to show exports of gold / jewelry. However,
the physicals goods are sold in the domestic informal channel.
The use of this mechanism has reduced considerably.
Multiple domestic retail invoices
Gold imported formally also finds its way into the informal economy, as buying
gold is a popular means of parking illicit wealth.
It is mandatory to obtain the buyer’s PAN details for transactions above
INR0.2m. To circumvent this, sellers make multiple invoices for amounts less
than INR0.2m while the physical gold is sold in bulk.
This gold is often used for jewelry manufacturing in the informal chain. While
there is no material tax saving in doing this from the gold perspective, it helps in
(a) deployment of illicit wealth, and (b) there is no taxation on the value
addition (making charges and value of diamonds/other gemstones used).
Diamonds and gemstones – input-output ratio difficult to measure
Non-standardized input-
output ratio in processing
diamonds facilitates
supplies to unorganized
trade
India imports rough diamonds and other gemstones. These are further
processed to form cut and polished diamonds/gemstones.
There is a huge variation in the input-output ratio in conversion of rough stones
to the final cut-and-polished product. It ranges from 30% to 50% of the input.
The output depends on the skill of the worker and quality of the rough stone,
leaving a lot of scope for manipulation of inventory. Also, the pricing of
diamonds and stones is a matter of judgment and very difficult to estimate.
This variation in output along with the difficulty in estimating price gives the
manufacturer a huge opportunity to officially show low output and sell the rest
in the informal economy.
Exhibit 18: Input-output ratio adjusted to manage inventory
Organized Chain
30 Carat
Rough Diamond
100 Carat
PROCESSING
Polished Diamond
50 Carat
Unorganized Chain
20 Carat
Source: MOSL
12 July 2017
15

Thematic | Jewelry
Escape from administrative and technology platform likely
Under GST, the government intends to employ technology to track end-to-end
credit flow in the value chain. Bilateral validation of invoices, online integration
of data and big data analytics will go a long way in addressing the loopholes in
tax administration.
The IT portal can capture data even if at least one participant in the value chain
sells goods through the organized chain (and hence, is a part of the GSTN).
However, in industries like Gems and Jewelry (G&J), it is possible for all
participants in the value chain to stay outside the formal trade, and thus, escape
from data capture by the technology platform.
We note that the G&J industry has a small B2C supply chain, where raw material
(gold, diamonds and other gemstones) is sourced by the jewelry manufacturers
and the end products are sold to the retail consumers via family jewelers.
In our view, the unorganized players can continue to get key raw materials used
for manufacturing of jewelry in the following manner:
All participants in the
jewelry value chain can
end-to-end remain outside
the technology platform
and continue to trade in an
unorganized manner
Gold
is available through smuggling, recycling and ‘bill to ship to’ mechanism.
Diamond and other gemstones:
These can be made available by managing
the input-output ratio at the end diamond/gemstone processing units
(engaged in cutting and polishing of roughs).
Higher GST rates further disincentive to shift to formal trade
GST rates on gems and jewelry have been increased to 3% v/s the current
effective tax rate of 2-2.2%. We believe that increase in the effective tax rates
applicable to the formal industry (will be passed on, though) will only act as a
slight disincentive for the participants to become part of the formal chain.
Also, we note that the price differential between an organized and an
unorganized player is high at 20-25%. This is primarily on account of higher
making charges and higher prices of diamonds levied by the organized players;
also, the unorganized players engage in under-carting of gold and diamonds to
reduce their pricing.
Though the finishing of jewelry is apparently better for organized players, we
believe that the price differential and acceptance of cash by unorganized players
are enough to drive consumers towards unorganized players.
Purchasing gold and jewelry is a preferred mode of investing illicit wealth.
While the government is taking multiple steps to propel the shift of trade from
unorganized to organized, the retail buyer may not get identified under GST
(since individual customers do not require a GSTN registration).
We believe that if the government is able to create a mechanism by which the
buyer in each transaction is identified, the shift towards a formal economy
would be accelerated. This can be achieved by significantly reducing the cash
transaction limit (currently INR0.2m) above which obtaining the buyer’s PAN
card/identity card is mandatory.
We believe this will cut down a significant proportion of gold trade which
originates in the formal import channel but later enters the unorganized trade.
16
Mandatory buyer identification could accelerate shift to formal segment
Significant reduction in the
cash transaction limit
without identity proof can
lead to a significant shift of
trade to formal economy
12 July 2017

Thematic | Jewelry
Companies
BSE Sensex: 31,805
S&P CNX: 9,816
July 2017
Titan
PC Jeweller
TBZ
12 July 2017
17

Thematic | Jewelry
Titan:
India’s leading player in branded jewelry
The Titan Company is India’s leading player in Branded Jewelry, Watches, and
Eyewear. The company was formed in 1984 as a joint venture between the Tata
Group and Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation.
It has pioneered the Branded Jewelry concept in India and has created a sizable
leadership presence in both Jewelry and Watches, leveraging its Tata brand
equity. Competition exists in both segments, but Titan has continued to lead.
In Jewelry, Titan innovated its offerings and created specific sub-brands for the
youth and w orking women. It introduced Light-Weight Jewelry for fashion-
conscious consumers. The company was growing strongly in Adornment
Jewelry. However, market slowdown due to weak consumer sentiment and
regulatory issues in the Golden Harvest Scheme (used to account for 30% of
sales at peak) necessitated an entry into Wedding Jewelry. Wedding Jewelry
(INR1.5t) is a much bigger market than Adornment Jewelry (INR0.5t).
In Watches, Titan has created a portfolio that straddles price points and
aspirations. This has helped it to retain consumers across cycles of
premiumization and down-trading.
To de-risk its long-term business from cyclicality associated with the Jewelry
business, Titan is targeting emerging lifestyle categories with significant
unorganized presence – Eyewear, Fragrance, Helmets, Sarees.
Titan’s financials have shown significant transformation in the 2000-13, with
improvement in balance sheet leverage, consistent free cash generation, best-
in-class RoE despite aggressive retail space expansion, and healthy earnings
growth. However, slowdown in discretionary consumption coupled with
regulatory challenges has adversely impacted financials in FY14-16.
Exhibit 19: Titan (INR m):
Financials
snapshot
Titan
Sales
YoY Change (%)
9YR CAGR (%)
EBIT
Margin (%)
9YR CAGR (%)
PAT
YoY Change (%)
9YR CAGR (%)
ROE
ROCE
D/E
Capital Employed
Cash Flow - FCO
Cash Flow - FCF
Trailing P/E
37.7
36.2
0.6
6,557
1,077
561
1.7
32.7
38.7
0.4
7,244
1,652
987
22.1
39.0
45.5
0.2
8,049
3,416
2,990
34.0
49.0
65.3
0.1
11,492
10,533
9,890
40.8
48.2
66.1
0.0
15,261
1,626
164
35.2
42.3
59.4
0.0
20,350
5,530
3,880
32.8
32.7
40.3
0.2
34,036
-5,547
-7,659
33.1
29.1
33.8
0.2
32,741
5,026
2,956
44.9
21.0
25.7
0.0
37,120
5,803
3,273
46.3
1,476
47.8
1,639
11.1
2,513
53.3
4,331
72.4
6,014
38.8
7,254
20.6
7,349
1.3
8,163
11.1
6,894
-15.5
2,237
7.3
2,669
6.8
3,480
7.3
6,378
9.8
8,842
10.0
10,572
10.4
10,970
10.0
11,296
9.5
8,968
8.0
FY08
30,540
43.0
FY09
39,110
28.1
FY10
47,791
22.2
FY11
65,331
36.7
FY12
88,484
35.4
FY13
101,233
14.4
FY14
109,274
7.9
FY15
119,134
9.0
FY16
112,779
-5.3
FY17
129,789
15.1
17.4
10,450
8.1
18.7
6,973
1.1
18.8
18.0
28.4
0.0
42,324
17,509
14,524
NA
Source: Capital line, MOSL
12 July 2017
18

Thematic | Jewelry
Exhibit 20: Jewelry volume growth suffered in last couple of
years due to demand challenges
Jewellery volume growth (%)
21.8
16.3
8.3
8.0
7.0
-2.8
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Source: Company, MOSL
10.0
5.8
3.8
Exhibit 21: Company aiming for 2.5x growth in Jewelry by
2022
Jewellery Sales (INR m)
57.1%
36.2%
43.3% 39.5%
26.7%
14.9%
8.3% 8.3%
-7.4%
17.4%
Jewellery Sales gr (%)
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 22: Growth might come at the expense of margins,
as it will be primarily driven by the lower-margin Wedding
Jewelry segment
Jewellery EBIT margins
8.9%
10.1% 10.6% 9.9%
9.2%
10.1%
Exhibit 23: Watches segment has been adversely impacted
by changing consumer preference
Watches Sales (INR m)
23.4%
18.7%
13.1%
20.1%
Watches Sales gr (%)
5.4% 5.8%
6.9%
8.3%
9.7%
8.1%
6.5%
2.7% 2.6%
3.5%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Source: Company, MOSL
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Source: Company, MOSL
12 July 2017
19

Thematic | Jewelry
PC Jeweller:
2nd largest listed jewelry retailer in India
PCJL is the second-largest listed Jewelry Retailer in India. It manufactures, retails
and exports Jewelry. It began operations in 2005, with one showroom in Karol
Bagh (New Delhi), and now has 71 showrooms (60 own large format + 7 own
small format + 4 franchisee), with operational retail space of ~380ksf. PCJL has
strong presence in the metros and tier-I cities, with large format stores focused
on Wedding Jewelry.
Having created a favorable brand image as a wedding jewelry player in the
metros and tier-I cities, PCJL now aims to tap newer micro markets with small
format (limited capital) and franchisee (asset-light model) stores with an area of
1-2ksf. It aims to open 10 franchisee stores and 15 own stores in FY18.
It is expanding its portfolio by introducing different ranges of Jewelry like
Flexia
and
Azva.
PCJL aims to take
Azva
to 50 retailers by FY18 (25 currently). High-end
Diamond Jewelry is currently not available in many store chains; PCJL’s will
leverage
Azva
brand to target customers of high-end Diamond Jewelry. Besides
Flexia
(Detachable Jewelry) and
Azva,
it has collections such as
Shakuntalam
and
Inayat.
PCJL is also in the process of launching Smart Jewelry in FY18.
While PCJL outsources 30-35% of its production, it has four manufacturing
facilities to support its retail footprint. It has already expanded its
manufacturing capacity by 29% to 107ksf and is looking to add further capacity
over next two years, with an investment of ~INR3b through internal accruals.
PCJL is also targeting reduction in overall inventory through technology and
digitization, whereby designs available at any of its stores can be seen sitting at
one store. It has invested INR0.1b in developing virtual reality technology, which
is currently on trial run; the management believes it could be a big hit.
In exports (~35% of total sales), PCJL is exploring newer markets and is looking
at starting B2C (retail) sales of its
Azva
and
Flexia
range of products in the US,
UK, and South East Asian and Gulf countries.
FY09
6,227
93.8
555
8.9
310
138.9
30.5
68.8
3.0
2,731
FY10
9,849
58.2
1,148
11.7
665
114.5
45.1
64.3
1.5
2,358
1,701
1,529
FY11
19,771
100.7
2,127
10.8
1,449
118.0
60.7
60.7
0.5
4,655
-293
-434
FY12
30,419
53.9
3,419
11.2
2,309
59.4
30.1
41.6
1.0
11,343
-3,366
-3,863
FY13
40,184
32.1
4,924
12.3
2,910
26.0
35.7
29.9
0.4
16,231
5,200
4,965
7.1
FY14
53,248
32.5
6,227
11.7
3,563
22.4
28.9
23.2
0.4
26,882
-7,859
-8,139
5.0
FY15
63,613
19.5
7,664
12.0
3,784
6.2
28.6
20.6
0.5
26,753
3,327
3,039
FY16
73,302
15.2
7,576
10.3
3,997
5.6
25.4
18.5
0.4
33,011
156
121
FY17
84,744
15.6
43.8
7,355
8.7
46.3
4,210
5.3
47.2
14.6
22.5
0.2
40,436
NA
NA
Exhibit 24: PC Jeweller (INR m): Financials snapshot
PC Jeweller
Sales
YoY Change (%)
9YR CAGR (%)
EBIT
Margin (%)
9YR CAGR (%)
PAT
YoY Change (%)
9YR CAGR (%)
ROE
ROCE
D/E
Capital Employed
Cash Flow - FCO
Cash Flow - FCF
Trailing P/E
26.4
36.5
1.6
906
4
-43
130
-
239
7.5
FY08
3,213
-
-1,419
-1,467
15.5
16.9
NA
Source: Capital line, MOSL
12 July 2017
20

Thematic | Jewelry
Exhibit 25: Sales have grown at 22% CAGR since IPO
(FY12-17)…
Sales (INR b)
93.8
58.1
53.9
19.8
30.4
100.7
53.2
40.2
32.1 32.5
63.5
72.3
Sales growth (%)
81.0
Exhibit 26: ...with salience of diamond increasing year by
year
Gold
18
23
27
Diamond
31
Others
26
32
28
3.2
6.2
9.8
19.2 13.9
12.0
81
76
73
69
73
68
72
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 27: EBITDA margin declining lately
EBITDA Margin (%)
10.0 10.1
6.9
7.9
10.9
12.0
11.2 11.4
Exhibit 28: Adjusted PAT has grown at 13% CAGR over FY12-
17
PAT (INR b)
10.4
138.9
9.3
114.5 118.0
2.9
59.4
1.4
0.1
0.3
0.7
2.3
26.0 22.4
6.1
5.5
7.9
3.6
3.8
4.0
PAT growth (%)
4.3
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Source: Company, MOSL
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Source: Company, MOSL
12 July 2017
21

Thematic | Jewelry
TBZ:
A 150-year old brand
TBZL, a 150-year old brand, is transforming itself into a national Jewelry Retailer,
with 33 showrooms in 26 cities across 11 states and a carpet area of 108,948sf.
TBZL mainly sells Gold and Diamond Jewelry. Wedding and related Jewelry
contributes ~65% of its revenue.
TBZL has its own manufacturing facility in Mumbai, with an annual Gold Refining
capacity of >4,000kg, Gold Jewelry Components capacity of 4,500kg, and
Diamond Jewelry capacity of >100,000cts. Most of the production is done in-
house and a small portion is procured from recognized vendors and suppliers.
In addition to Jewelry designs from different parts of India, TBZL also offers a
wide range of Jewelry from Italy and Turkey.
Of the 33 showrooms it operates, 28 are large format stores, with a carpet area
of over 2,000sf, while five are small format stores, with an area of 1,000-2,000sf.
TBZL has set up strong systems and processes, with oracle inventory
management and a team of 43 designers (including 21 CAD), to maintain its
competitive edge.
Exhibit 29: TBZ (INR m): Financials snapshot
TBZ
Sales
YoY Change (%)
9YR CAGR (%)
EBIT
Margin (%)
9YR CAGR (%)
PAT
YoY Change (%)
9YR CAGR (%)
ROE
ROCE
D/E
Capital Employed
Cash Flow - FCO
Cash Flow - FCF
Trailing P/E
408.3
184.7
0.2
82
-83
-206
78.8
36.2
0.2
661
-529
-750
24.7
59.0
0.1
752
95
-6
44.6
43.2
1.2
3,175
285
184
42.8
34.7
1.6
3,719
385
316
29.6
24.6
1.1
8,359
-3,026
-3,485
18.7
12.8
14.5
1.2
10,217
-302
-490
16.7
4.0
8.2
1.3
10,596
148
22
43.5
-6.1
3.3
1.4
10,960
141
45
0.0
75
104
39.1
169
62.2
392
131.6
572
46.1
845
47.5
550
-34.9
243
-55.8
-275
-213.2
222
5.1
293
4.4
444
5.0
849
7.1
1,197
8.6
1,486
9.0
1,344
7.4
946
4.9
355
2.1
FY08
4,394
FY09
6,687
52.2
FY10
8,849
32.3
FY11
11,939
34.9
FY12
13,855
16.0
FY13
16,583
19.7
FY14
18,243
10.0
FY15
19,342
6.0
FY16
16,548
-14.4
FY17
17,002
2.7
16.2
605
3.6
11.8
147
-153.5
NA
3.3
6.0
1.2
9,983
NA
NA
NA
Source: Capital line, MOSL
12 July 2017
22

Thematic | Jewelry
Exhibit 30: Targeting area of 150,000sf over the near term
Carpet area ('000 sq ft)
82.4
47.8
88.1
91.1
98.2 102.9
Exhibit 31: Sales have slowed in the last few years, like
peers
52.2
32.3
34.9
16.0
19.7
9.6
6.4
-14.4
2.7
Sales
Sales Growth (%)
42.5
44.2
44.2
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Source: Company, MOSL
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 32: Diamond forms 22% of total sales (FY17)…
Diamond voIume ('000 Cts)
26.0%
16.5%
2.4%
-8.6% -10.0%
35.4
41.3
52.0
53.2
48.7
43.8
52.0
18.7%
40.0
-23.2%
40.8
2.0%
growth
Exhibit 33: …while Gold forms 76%
Gold volume (Kgs)
9.0% 8.4%
3654
1.5%
-11.1%
3479 3792 4110
3710 4361 4706
growth
17.5%
7.9%
4216
3738
-10.4% -11.3%
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
12 July 2017
23

Thematic | Jewelry
NOTES
12 July 2017
24

THEMATIC/STRATEGY RESEARCH GALLERY

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Thematic | Jewelry
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