Jubilant Foodworks
BSE SENSEX
32,075
S&P CNX
9,916
17 July 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Retail
CMP: INR1,275 TP: INR850 (-33%)
Sell
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Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
JUBI IN
66.0
65.3 / 1.0
1299 / 761
33/35/-4
680
55.0
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
25.8
28.8
32.8
EBITDA
2.4
3.0
3.8
PAT
0.6
1.0
1.4
EPS (INR)
10.0
14.8
20.7
Gr. (%)
-32.1 48.0
40.0
BV/Sh (INR)
122.1 133.0 148.3
RoE (%)
8.2
11.1
14.0
RoCE (%)
8.4
11.6
14.7
P/E (x)
127.4 86.1
61.5
P/BV (x)
10.4
9.6
8.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
SSSG better than expectation; ‘Everyday Value’ strategy receives good response
Results above expectations:
1QFY18 net sales grew 11.5% YoY (est. of +3%) to
INR6.8b, EBITDA rose 37.8% YoY (est. of +3%) to INR796m and adj. PAT
increased 25.6% YoY (est. of -4.8%) to INR181m. SSS grew 6.5% YoY (est. of
-3%) for the quarter.
Gross margin shrunk 40bp YoY to 76.4%
(est. of -200bp). Lower staff costs
(-130bp to 21.7%), other expenses (-120bp to 31.3%) and rent costs (-20bp to
11.6%) led to EBITDA margin expansion of 220bp YoY to 11.7% (est. of flat
margin).
Concall highlights:
(1) SSSG of 6.5% in 1QFY18 was led by growth in business
volumes, mostly due to good response to ‘Everyday Value’ strategy for
Domino’s Pizza. (2) Benefits of cost rationalization efforts in association with AT
Kearney will be witnessed mainly in 3QFY18 and 4QFY18. (3) 255bp negative
impact due to Dunkin Donuts on margins in 1QFY17 came down to 145bp in
1QFY18.
Valuation view:
Changes to the model have resulted in 21.8%/15.6% increase
in FY18/FY19 EPS. There is, however, no visibility on sustained SSSG growth
beyond the current year, with persistent weak urban consumer sentiment. For
a business that sells an expensive product and where competition has made
significant inroads into its forte of delivery, significant job creation needs to
happen and incomes need to rise sharply – there has been no evidence of this
so far. Although admirable, most of management’s efforts are just damage-
control, in our view. Double-digit SSSG is essential for sustained margin growth
for a business with cost inflation of 6-7%. Despite assuming staggering 54% EPS
CAGR over FY17-19, the stock trades at 61.5x FY19E EPS for a business that
does not make 15% RoE, even in FY19. Maintain
Sell
with a revised TP of
INR850 (multiple unchanged at 38x June 2019E EPS).
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.