Hindustan Unilever
BSE SENSEX
31,711
S&P CNX
9,827
18 July 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR1,158 TP: INR1,285(+11%)
Buy
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Decent sales/margins performance in a quarter affected by destocking
Hindustan Unilever’s (HUVR) 1QFY18 net sales increased 4.9% YoY
(est. of
+2%) to INR85.3b. Domestic consumer business grew 6% YoY, with flat volumes
(est. -1%). EBITDA increased 14.1% YoY to INR18.7b (12% above estimate) and
PAT (bei) rose 14.6% YoY to INR12.9b (11% above estimate).
Home care revenues were up 5.9% YoY, while personal care witnessed 3.5%
YoY growth in sales. Foods business sales were up 4.3% YoY, while refreshment
sales increased 10.8% YoY. Home care EBIT margin expanded by 230bp YoY and
personal care margin by 50bp YoY. Among the smaller segments, foods margin
expanded by 820bp YoY (off a very low base) and refreshment margin by
310bp YoY.
Gross margin expanded 80bp YoY to 52.1%.
EBITDA margin expanded 180bp
YoY to 21.9%, aided by gross margin improvement, and a decline of 30bp
YoY in staff costs, 20bp YoY in adspend and 40bp YoY in other expenses.
EBITDA increased 14.1% YoY to INR18.66b, higher than our estimate of
INR16.69b. PAT (bei) rose 14.6% YoY to INR12.92b.
Concall highlights:
(1) Absence of CSD offtake from the beginning of June
affected sales by 2% for the quarter. (2) Management expects a gradual
recovery in rural demand. (3) Company aims to attain significant savings in
each cost item over the next few years.
Valuation and view:
HUL has all the levers in place to drive earnings revival,
including good monsoon, benefits of low base of preceding years, return of
price part of sales growth, lower promotion spends, continuing premiumization
and various government schemes (DBT implementation, 24% increase in rural
outlay in the budget, farm loan waiver in Uttar Pradesh, etc.). Consequently,
we expect EPS CAGR of 18% over FY17-19, well above 3-year/5-year/10-year
EPS CAGR of 6.1%/10.6%/10.1%. Return ratios and dividend yield are best-of-
breed. We maintain our target multiple of 45x FY19E June-19 EPS (5% premium
to 3-year average), resulting in a target price of INR1,285. Maintain
Buy.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
HUVR IN
2,164.3
2,159.4 / 33.7
1190 / 783
4/18/12
1226
32.8
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
313.0 346.2 392.7
EBITDA
60.5
70.5
83.5
PAT
42.5
49.6
59.2
EPS (INR)
19.6
22.9
27.3
Gr. (%)
1.9
16.8
19.2
BV/Sh (INR)
30.8
31.9
34.1
RoE (%)
65.6
73.1
82.8
RoCE (%)
87.3
97.0
110.1
P/E (x)
59.0
50.5
42.3
P/BV (x)
37.6
36.3
34.0
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261