Tata Steel
BSE SENSEX
31,955
S&P CNX
9,900
19 July 2017
Update
| Sector:
Metals
CMP: INR571
TP: INR583(+2%)
Neutral
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Annual report: EBITDA growth was offset by WC in FY17
Ind-AS revaluation depresses return ratios, net-debt- to-EBITDA
Analysis of Tata Steel’s (TATA) FY17 is of particular significance because of Ind-AS
introduction. Comparison of re-stated FY16 Ind-AS financials with previously reported
IGAAP brings out many insights.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val ( INRm)/Vol m
Free float (%)
TATA IN
971.2
572 / 349
11/5/39
546.6
8.6
3013 / 6.8
68.7
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E
Net Sales
1,123 1,214
EBITDA
170
186
PAT
37
48
EPS (INR)
37.9
49.6
Gr. (%)
394.2
30.8
BV/Sh (INR)
330
362
RoE (%)
15.7
14.3
RoCE (%)
9.4
9.9
P/E (x)
15.1
11.5
P/BV (x)
1.7
1.6
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
2019E
1,232
203
64
65.6
32.2
418
16.8
10.5
8.7
1.4
Jun-17 Mar-17 Jun-16
31.9
30.8
13.9
23.4
31.4
30.6
14.1
23.9
31.4
27.2
13.3
28.2
FII Includes depository receipts
Standalone EBITDA for FY16 is boosted by INR3.4b, as long-term power supply
arrangement is now finance lease, which has increased debt by INR16.9b.
EPCG benefits are now deferred income; this has increased gross block (hence
depreciation) and non-cash EBITDA (INR3.4b in FY17).
TSE-LP disposal:
Ind-AS FY16 financials have excluded disposed assets, which
contributed loss of INR1.8b to EBITDA. TATA received
negative consideration
of INR19.6b,
which was over and above INR4b net working capital.
TSE turnaround is largely attributable to reduction in repair & maintenance,
GBP depreciation, and some expansion in spreads in FY17.
Accounting of JVs on equity method has reduced net debt by INR54b and
EBITDA by just INR2b, thereby benefitting EV/EBITDA.
Book value is inflated by INR132/share to INR425/share on fair valuation of
assets and goodwill is trimmed by INR100/share to INR42/share in FY16.
All the
return ratios (RoE, RoCE, RoIC, asset turn) have declined under Ind-AS.
Net-debt-to-equity declined sharply. On the other hand, EBITDA margin has
improved under Ind-AS for TATA. Please refer to Exhibit 9.
Working capital ate away EBITDA growth in FY17:
Despite a strong growth in
EBITDA from INR80b in FY16 to INR170b in FY17, operating cash flows actually
dipped due to major swing in working capital. Disposal of assets was associated
with INR10.8b cash outflow. TATA had to borrow INR27b incrementally, though
net debt increase is lower at INR13b on translation gain.
Expect strong operating performance on strong steel pricing and spreads
Fair valuation of assets under Ind-AS has rendered traditional tools of valuation
(e.g. P/BV) and leverage (e.g. debt/equity) useless. We need to now rely solely
on cash generation potential, even for the cyclical steel industry.
TATA witnessed strong growth in EBITDA, though FCF was still negative in FY17.
We expect stronger operating performance but still do not expect FCF
generation because of pending BRPL acquisition and BPS payouts in FY18.
However, we expect FCF generation and reduction in net debt in FY19.
The global steel market has been stronger than our expectation, as Chinese
steel demand has surprised positively so far in CY17. It is difficult for China to
sustain high demand growth at such a high base, in our view. Therefore, we are
cautious on the steel price outlook.
TATA operates in India and Europe, where the markets are protected against
dumping. More protection is expected in Europe by October. This may drive
upgrades for TSE. Protection does help in the short term, but is never water
tight, in our view. We maintain
Neutral.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549