26 July 2017
1QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Financials
Federal Bank
Buy
BSE SENSEX
32,382
S&P CNX
10,021
CMP: INR115
TP:INR139 (+21%)
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Slippages dent profitability; Underlying story intact
Federal Bank’s (FB) 1QFY18 PAT declined 18% QoQ (+26% YoY) to INR2.1b (14%
miss), despite in-line PPoP (+2%/31% QoQ/YoY), due to the twin impact on NII
and provisions from a spike in corporate slippages, with a restructured account
slipping into NPA.
NII growth came in at -5%/16% QoQ/YoY (7% miss) owing to interest reversals
of ~INR160m, adjusted for which, calculated NIM would stand at 3.11% instead
of 3.05%. Capital raise benefit (+15bp) will help near-term NIMs. Other income
grew 17%/39% QoQ/YoY due to a lumpy contribution of INR2b of treasury
income. CI ratio improved 60bp QoQ to 50.6%.
Loan growth of 4%/29% QoQ/YoY was broad-based, with strong growth across
segments. Corporate growth was the strongest at 6%/39% QoQ/YoY. Retail &
agri loans grew by 3%/27% QoQ/YoY, and SME loans by 3%/17% QoQ/YoY.
Asset quality deteriorated, with one bulky restructured account of INR1.05b
(62% of corporate slippages) slipping into NPA; GNPA/NNPA increased to
2.42%/1.39% (+9bp/+11bp QoQ), with slippage ratio shooting up to 2.88% v/s
1.68% in 4QFY17. Recoveries and upgrades declined 34% QoQ. During the
quarter, the bank sold ~INR480m from existing accounts to ARCs.
Other highlights: a) CASA increased 33% YoY led by 28% CA growth. b) Growth
picking up outside Kerala with 20%/25% growth in loans/SA, while overall
loans/SA growth was 14%/19%.
Valuation and view:
We believe FB’s asset quality concerns, which are largely
legacy issues, are largely behind. The bank is ahead of corporate lending peer
banks on the asset quality curve, especially with opportunistic entry into the
mid-commercial segment. Considering asset quality distractions in the PSU
space, we believe FB is well positioned to gain market share in highly rated
corporates. Post QIP, the bank is comfortably positioned with respect to capital
(Tier 1 ratio of 14.7%). We largely maintain estimates for FY18/19 and reiterate
Buy
with a target price of INR139 (2x June 2019 BV) based on RI model.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
FB IN
1,719.0
139.2/2.1
82/41
13/61/40
414
100.0
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2018E 2019E 2020E
NII
35.4
43.4
52.0
OP
23.4
27.5
33.9
NP
10.4
13.3
16.7
NIM (%)
3.1
3.1
3.0
EPS (INR)
5.4
6.8
8.6
EPS Gr. (%)
11.6
27.0
25.7
BV/Sh. (INR)
62.3
67.7
74.6
ABV/Sh. (INR) 58.9
64.1
71.7
ROE (%)
10.0
10.5
12.1
ROA (%)
0.8
0.9
0.9
Payout (%)
20.3
19.7
19.7
Valuations
P/E(X)
21.3
16.7
13.3
P/BV (X)
1.8
1.7
1.5
Alpesh Mehta - Research analyst
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
Subham Banka - Research analyst
(Subham.Banka@MotilalOswal.com)
/
Anirvan Sarkar - Research analyst
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.